As to what I would do if I were the West? Well in the short term the highest probability is that Iran says “Israel - we were just warning you, leave us alone”. Israel agrees. Short term dies down and Israel keep focusing on Hamas

But my suspicion is that Hezbollah will then be IDF’s next target and there will come a point where once Yemeni, Hamas and Hezbollah threats are eliminated, then Iran comes into focus again. Because this conflictis baked in to the objectives of Iran and Israel.

Why? Since the 1979 removal of The Shah in Iran, and the crazy Shia muslim wing of leadership installed, The Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRG) has had three stated high level objectives:

1. The elimination of Israel from the map

This will always be resisted by Israel

2. The removal of US and Europe from influence in the Middle East

This is not acceptable to The West or we would lose energy access, all be bankrupt from high interest rates and inflation, and no access to Suez shipping lanes, hitting global trade and ability to defend Mediterranean waters from Russian, Chinese or Iranian naval threats)

3. To spread Shia muslim fundamentalism across the Middle East

This is not acceptable and an existential threat to Sunni muslims in the middle east such as Jordan, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi.

What should we do?

War is clearly not good. But nor is a long term ceasefire possible, with them strategically opposed. My preference is:

1. Re-install Trump’s deal to ban Iran selling oil in open markets: kills their financing. Previously this brought Iran to its economic knees and de-stabilised its leadership. Do this. Enough is enough.

2. US and UK/Europe take out Iranian Revolutionary Guard, currently outside Iran

3. Once financing killed off, and IRG taken out (like with Saddam’s revolutionary guard) the Iranian Shia leadership will be out of money and out of military support and exposed to internal civil war. Financially support a Sunni group of the people to overthrow the Shias, resulting in a progressive Sunni regime, where women’s rights are respected and a more tolerant friendly mixed society and government in operation - as it was pre 1979.

If I were the UK government, I would propose that three step plan to the US and G7 and get cracking. I am no expert, but that seems a plan to re-install long term peace and stability, without direct war. It does risk tension with China and Russia who are backing them, but that tension is there anyway. It is a cheaper way of trying to solve the problem it seems.