Iran in direct attack on Israel

[life on mars]

..and if you want terminal destruction of Iran there is another way but it comes at a high cost.

1. Do a deal with Turkey to block Iranian oil flows on pipelines.
2. Put ships in the Straight of Hormuz and block any Iranian cargo.

See map below and guide on the area....

https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/i...e-middle-east/

Unfortunately it won't stop oil going to China, but that is what the importance of Iraq and Afghanistan was. In addition to cutting off trade with China, the combination of US troops in Iraq (to left of Iran) and in Afghanistan (to right of Iran) was a "Policy of Encirclement" to cut off allies, military supply lines and trade to the East and West, and keep Iran honest and isolated.

But you cannot sell that to the Western public and it is expensive as we saw. Necessary to contain Iran and strategically sound, but costly. We have now done the public's bidding and got out. The combination of getting out, plus Biden's sanctions reversal, is what allowed Iran to trade with China, and do damage close to Israel. Ethically sound but strategically poor and political and economically dangerous.

The map is just a chessboard. Once you see it that way, you can see what needs to be done, regardless of the ethics.

The other important point to consider are the young people of Iran have had enough, they are rising up which makes it difficult for Israel to send the real big weapons in. Revolution from within maybe the answer, we could also see the same in Israel after this is all over .

[Keyser Soze]

Well we may soon get our confirmation. One strike by Iran, and a response by Israel could have been written off as 1-1 and left there. I noted this line from my Bloomberg news terminal feed:

Iranian Foreign Minister: If Israel wants to do another adventurism and acts against the interests of Iran, next response will be immediate and at maximum level — Reuters

But that was before last night. Israel struck a military base inside Iraq. As I said earlier in the week that will be Iran’s Iranian Revolutionary Guard bases and supply lines that I thought they might go for.

So to piece it all together, what is the situation room now? Is this a tit for tat? Regional war? Proxy war? Or the start if World War III?

US/G7/Europe’s position?
——————————-
- US and G7 are united in saying they stand by Israel
- But equally are re-applying sanctions to Iran,but are also claiming they are telling Israel to stop.
- US are striving to send another £1bn to Israel to “defend itself”

So the US and G7 have a position that is presented as “We are not involved”, or “Supporting Israel’s Defence”. But they know full well they are paying for Israel’s attacks. So they are playing Iran at their own game: pretending to be not involved, but really they are.

Israel and Iran’s war position
———————————
- Iran bombed Israel, and Israel gave a small retaliation 1-1
- Israel have conducted “round two” strikes v Iran, with the Iranian Foreign Minister making the statement further up
- If Iran responds, or Iran and Israel respond in no order, we no doubt have at least a proxy war started,m. With Hamas, Hezbollah and Hourhis already involved, you can already make the case that this has escalated to a combination of a proxy and regional war.

What is now Iraq’s position?
——————————-
- This could be the ultimate turning point. Iraq was Sunni-run, but is now Shia influenced by Iran
- Iran believes that Iraq and Iran should be unified
- Iraq is a military and oil pipeline supply line on the chessboard to Syria and Lebanon
- Iraq allows IRG into its zone
- Iraq has done a huge long term oil deal with China to give it low cost oil, with pipelines previously designated for global oil prices and the West

Iraq allowed the Israelis to fly over and strike Iran the other night. Why? Have they been cosying up to Iran and China because the US exited, and are now shafting them both now the US and Israel are involved? Or did they allow a one-off, were conned by US and Israel? Soon, Iraq will be forced to choose a side. This is pivotal.

First Iran hid and was forced to show it’s hand - China next?
———————
As China support Iran, and have been supporting Iraq in oil deals, what will China now do?

If the US and Israel continue this hitting of Iranian IRG positions, this will not only isolate Hamas and Hezbollah by cutting off military support and oil pipelines, probably force us to see who Iraq will support in an escalation, but also China if their ally (Iran) and oil supply is threatened.

Iran was forced to reveal it’s face from behind the curtains, but what do China now do? Keep funding Iran? Step in and protect their oil supplies? Or pull away, drop Iranian support, retreat to the shadows, preserve their money for a fight in Taiwan? That cheap Iraqi oil would have been quite handy in their naval power ambitions and the desire to supplying all those ships with cheap foreign oil for a probable economic blockade of Taiwan to control 85% of the world’s semi-conductors.

For the reasons above, I believe if Iraq keeps being pummelled, China controls the decision of whether or not this becomes WWW III by:

1. Intervening in Iraq to protect their oil or put military into Iran at least (to defend their regional ally), thus escalating a regional war to World War III with two economic superpowers if Us v China fighting - direct or by proxy.

This is akin to Russia and France (regional superpower) defending Serbia, and Germany (empire superpower) defending Austro-Hungarian empire (empire super power) in World War One.

2. Drop Iraq and Iran, surrendering control of direct oil supplies, and China’s pipelines going into Middle East, but also surrendering their regional influence of countries controlling commercial shipping lanes (Straights of Hormuz and Suez), and re-conceding control of this zone to Western powers

What happens in Iraq is now pivotal. I would say in the next 1-2 months we will have definitive answers if we revert to status quo, a continuation of a regional war or World War III. Because Iraq isn’t a meaningful military, we will soon find out what the big boys want from all this.

[Keyser Soze]

Curveball here. I just saw an update…

“Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan receives the head of the Hamas political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, in Istanbul.”

Hard to see what that is. Either…

1. Asking for Turkish financial or military support (probably on behalf of Iran)

2. Asking Turkey to agree to cut off Middle East energy supplies to EU (Turkey won’t do that)

3. Communicate what Iran’s intentions are and seeking their views

I didn’t expect Turkey to be talking to Hamas, so this one surprises me.

[jon1959]

Curveball here. I just saw an update…

“Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan receives the head of the Hamas political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, in Istanbul.”

Hard to see what that is. Either…

1. Asking for Turkish financial or military support (probably on behalf of Iran)

2. Asking Turkey to agree to cut off Middle East energy supplies to EU (Turkey won’t do that)

3. Communicate what Iran’s intentions are and seeking their views

I didn’t expect Turkey to be talking to Hamas, so this one surprises me.

Turkey have been talking to Hamas - and providing support - at least since 2006 when they were elected in Gaza.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_support_for_Hamas