Sky Prediction Of General Election

[Eric Cartman]

I have no axe to grind as they say, as I have no confidence that either the Tories or Labour have a magic bullet solution to the malaise in the country. I agree with the above - it is ridiculous to try to predict the outcome of a general election based on local election results especially when the turn out was so low in most cases. I haven't got the time or the energy to look back to the previous local election results and see how the actual numbers of people who voted along party lines. I did it for the last couple of by-elections and the figures were quite enlightening.

Turnout is definitely an issue but simply put, people vote completely differently in local elections. I live in a Tory area and voted Green at the locals across the board last time around (we only had PCC this time and I didn't bother) because I felt they had a better chance of winning. In a general election Labour are consistently 2nd in this seat and I will vote accordingly.

[jon1959]

I think the BBC figures are right. It's a rare example of the guardian skewing reality to suit the Tories!

Aside from the frustration I have with party politics, I do love all the graphs and charts from this stuff, but local elections are nothing like general elections or senedd elections etc. The numbers are so skewed on where elections take place etc that it's hard to get too excited bar the key takeaways of Labour doing well, Tories bad etc

I agree with most of that. Low turnout makes GE predictions based on the Local Election votes a nonsense. I think the rolling polls - maybe adjusted for a late Tory upturn - are the best guide.

But even with a low turnout it is interesting (and relevant for the GE) to see where Reform are damaging the Tories and where the Greens and various smaller left groups and independents are eating into the Labour vote.

[JamesWales]

I agree with most of that. Low turnout makes GE predictions based on the Local Election votes a nonsense. I think the rolling polls - maybe adjusted for a late Tory upturn - are the best guide.

But even with a low turnout it is interesting (and relevant for the GE) to see where Reform are damaging the Tories and where the Greens and various smaller left groups and independents are eating into the Labour vote.

Yeah there's definitely takeaways from it, I mean more any kind of statistical analysis, which can be so clearly made from General Election to General Election but can't be here.

[JamesWales]

Turnout is definitely an issue but simply put, people vote completely differently in local elections. I live in a Tory area and voted Green at the locals across the board last time around (we only had PCC this time and I didn't bother) because I felt they had a better chance of winning. In a general election Labour are consistently 2nd in this seat and I will vote accordingly.

I didn't vote at all. Mainly because I don't agree with the PCC elections. First time I have ever not voted mind.