Ukraine Conflict Getting Very Close

[Rjk]

I must have missed something here but I cannot recall reading any details about these so-called devastating sanctions that will be imposed on Russia if they invade Ukraine. What does Russia depend on the West for? OK we buy their oil/gas but surely that is a huge bargaining chip for them not for us - they can simply turn off the taps and accept the loss of revenue I suppose. Countries like Germany will be on their knees to them within days if that happened. As for the UK, Scotland could stop sending Scotch whiskey and Wales could stop sending Felinfoel Double Dragon ale and Caerphilly cheese I guess which would have a huge impact I'm sure.

I think it is more around freezing of assets of people connected to Putin, much of which makes its way to London

[Gofer Blue]

I have heard that the Russian oligarchs and their agents, subsidiary companies and front men tend to hold most of their money in bank accounts, properties and companies in the west - and that going after them in that direction will have a srious impact on their wealth.

OK I can understand that, but how will that impact on the Russian economy as a whole? Or is the entire Russian economy indeed in the hands of a relatively few obscenely rich mates of Putin?

[lardy]

I must have missed something here but I cannot recall reading any details about these so-called devastating sanctions that will be imposed on Russia if they invade Ukraine. What does Russia depend on the West for? OK we buy their oil/gas but surely that is a huge bargaining chip for them not for us - they can simply turn off the taps and accept the loss of revenue I suppose. Countries like Germany will be on their knees to them within days if that happened. As for the UK, Scotland could stop sending Scotch whiskey and Wales could stop sending Felinfoel Double Dragon ale and Caerphilly cheese I guess which would have a huge impact I'm sure.

Google for Londongrad, and all the links Russia has with the parliamentary elite, and how Russian money gets laundered in the UK.

[lardy]

OK I can understand that, but how will that impact on the Russian economy as a whole? Or is the entire Russian economy indeed in the hands of a relatively few obscenely rich mates of Putin?

Yes to number 2, basically.

[Taunton Blue Genie]

OK I can understand that, but how will that impact on the Russian economy as a whole? Or is the entire Russian economy indeed in the hands of a relatively few obscenely rich mates of Putin?

The word 'oligarchs' was the clue

[JamesWales]

Here's my prediction:

Russia is basically an abusive ex husband abusing his ex for flirting with other men.

I think Russia will annex the eastern part of Ukraine where there is probably some support within Ukraine itself, without threatening the rest of Ukraine, which would provoke probably far more intense opposition.

NATO and the west can then be furious about it, but if Russia stops in eastern Ukraine they will claim some victory in stopping Putin, whilst Putin claims victory in invading Ukraine.

All the while, Europe, and especially Germany, gets it’s Russian gas, which given they have supplied Ukraine with no support would suggest it is their greatest concern (Ukraine has always been a pawn between two greater powers, much like Poland, Belarus etc)

So eastern Ukraine becomes a part of Russia, like the Crimea did a few years ago. Ukraine becomes smaller, more ethnically homogenous, more fiercely nationalist and simultaneously more westward looking. Russia buys a few years whilst it works out what it’s raison d’etre in world affairs is.

I hope I’m wrong and nothing happens.

[Taunton Blue Genie]

Here's my prediction:

Russia is basically an abusive ex husband abusing his ex for flirting with other men.

I think Russia will annex the eastern part of Ukraine where there is probably some support within Ukraine itself, without threatening the rest of Ukraine, which would provoke probably far more intense opposition.

NATO and the west can then be furious about it, but if Russia stops in eastern Ukraine they will claim some victory in stopping Putin, whilst Putin claims victory in invading Ukraine.

All the while, Europe, and especially Germany, gets it’s Russian gas, which given they have supplied Ukraine with no support would suggest it is their greatest concern (Ukraine has always been a pawn between two greater powers, much like Poland, Belarus etc)

So eastern Ukraine becomes a part of Russia, like the Crimea did a few years ago. Ukraine becomes smaller, more ethnically homogenous, more fiercely nationalist and simultaneously more westward looking. Russia buys a few years whilst it works out what it’s raison d’etre in world affairs is.

I hope I’m wrong and nothing happens.

I have always thought (and mentioned it on here already) that the likelihood is that if does invade then Russia they will probably occupy and take control of only part of The Ukraine. A line drawn from the northern end of Transnistria (itself a breakaway/rogue entity of Moldova and under Russian influence) to Kharkov in the east defines an ethno-political-linguistic divide - and the region below that line is the more likely target for Russia, particularly the region east of the Dnieper. Surely they won't risk occupying the area north of that line, which would end up with endless hostility and guerilla action from the pro-west Ukranian-speaking population there.

[lardy]

Sergei doesn't want his mistress to lose her 4.4 million pound flat in Kensington. https://t.co/3feoXHRtUq

— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) February 14, 2022

[JamesWales]

I have always thought (and mentioned it on here already) that the likelihood is that if does invade then Russia they will probably occupy and take control of only part of The Ukraine. A line drawn from the northern end of Transnistria (itself a breakaway/rogue entity of Moldova and under Russian influence) to Kharkov in the east defines an ethno-political-linguistic divide - and the region below that line is the more likely target for Russia, particularly the region east of the Dnieper. Surely they won't risk occupying the area north of that line, which would end up with endless hostility and guerilla action from the pro-west Ukranian-speaking population there.

Yes, I think that is more likely, and whilst there is zero justification for it from our perspective, there is an argument Russia is 'protecting' ethnic and linguistic Russians, which do number in the millions in eastern Ukraine. It would also strengthen Russia in terms of land and population (not that they really need that) and weaken Ukraine. Also, would the west have the fight in them for an all-out war with a nuclear power for a relatively small part of the Ukraine that does to some extent feel Russian anyway?

There's some similarities with the German occupation of Sudetenland in 1938, not that I think Russia now is remotely comparable to Germany in 1938.

[Monster munch]

Its certainly gathering motion now. Wednesday is "invasion day" apparently being mooted in the press, B52's landing from the USA at RAF Fairford, commercial aircraft and westerners pulling out of the Ukraine.
Just ridiculous. I don't think it will come to shots fired, I think Ukraine will abandon its NATO dream and the russians will pull back. But it is all a bit twitchy for sure.

[goats]

Its certainly gathering motion now. Wednesday is "invasion day" apparently being mooted in the press, B52's landing from the USA at RAF Fairford, commercial aircraft and westerners pulling out of the Ukraine.
Just ridiculous. I don't think it will come to shots fired, I think Ukraine will abandon its NATO dream and the russians will pull back. But it is all a bit twitchy for sure.

Just what the world needs as we hopefully come out of a pandemic…..putin

[Wash DC Blue]

Interesting that Donetsk, one of the Eastern Cities and I think Pro Russian was established by a Welsh Business Man opening Steelworks and Coal Mines.

[Rjk]

Interesting that Donetsk, one of the Eastern Cities and I think Pro Russian was established by a Welsh Business Man opening Steelworks and Coal Mines.

and one of the other main cities in the Russian controlled area is Lugansk, which is twinned with Cardiff

[Wash DC Blue]

and one of the other main cities in the Russian controlled area is Lugansk, which is twinned with Cardiff

Here's hoping that sense prevails.
I do agree with a post above and think that it will be a land grab in the east and hopefully that satiates the blood lust and ego.

[goats]

Here's hoping that sense prevails.
I do agree with a post above and think that it will be a land grab in the east and hopefully that satiates the blood lust and ego.

Like Russia needs just a bit more land….madness

[life on mars]

Apparently if the west and Ukraine makes a statement confirming not to become a NATO or European member were all good .

I'd agree wait until they pull back weapons and troops then join NATO and arm it borders to the hilt as the new NATO defence.

Last time I blinked I can't remember NATO invading anyone other than as a peace keeper, how does a peace keeper pose a threat ?

[Taunton Blue Genie]

Like Russia needs just a bit more land….madness

It's not necessarily about acreage per se. Russia and Eastern Ukraine share a heritage that dates back to the Rus, a people whose name is associated with both Russia and Belarus (aka White Russia). The party political split runs along the same line as the language divide (i.e. Russian v Ukranian as the primary language) and, rightly or wrongly, Putin seems to want to bring part of Ukraine back to the fold, as it were. No doubt the agriculturally rich areas he covets won't go amiss for him - and neither will more access to the Black Sea.

[xsnaggle]

It's not necessarily about acreage per se. Russia and Eastern Ukraine share a heritage that dates back to the Rus, a people whose name is associated with both Russia and Belarus (aka White Russia). The party political split runs along the same line as the language divide (i.e. Russian v Ukranian as the primary language) and, rightly or wrongly, Putin seems to want to bring part of Ukraine back to the fold, as it were. No doubt the agriculturally rich areas he covets won't go amiss for him - and neither will more access to the Black Sea.

Access to the black sea is not such a goal, everything still has to go through the bosphoros, and its so shallow submarines have to surface so every movement is logged by NATO.
Ukraine produces a vast percentage of the worlds grain, and sell a lot to Russia, but if the Russian take over the production it will be fecked because of the level of corruption that will be imported.

[A Quiet Monkfish]

Apparently if the west and Ukraine makes a statement confirming not to become a NATO or European member were all good .

I'd agree wait until they pull back weapons and troops then join NATO and arm it borders to the hilt as the new NATO defence.

Last time I blinked I can't remember NATO invading anyone other than as a peace keeper, how does a peace keeper pose a threat ?

NATO's stated purpose is : The North Atlantic Treaty Organization or Atlantic Alliance (NATO) is an international political and military organization with the aim of guaranteeing the freedom and security of its members through political and military means.

If Ukraine is a member, with missiles on Russia's border, it's not too difficult to understand why Putin would want Ukraine to remain outside NATO. This isn't a totally black and white, good v evil, as the west is making out.

[Taunton Blue Genie]

NATO's stated purpose is : The North Atlantic Treaty Organization or Atlantic Alliance (NATO) is an international political and military organization with the aim of guaranteeing the freedom and security of its members through political and military means.

If Ukraine is a member, with missiles on Russia's border, it's not too difficult to understand why Putin would want Ukraine to remain outside NATO. This isn't a totally black and white, good v evil, as the west is making out.

Quite possibly but Putin has already snaffled the Crimea and the Donbass region so he's not exactly occupying the moral high ground.
Oh, and why should a state run by a despot prevent another State, which is more democratic, in deciding what it wants to do regarding its own security?

[A Quiet Monkfish]

Quite possibly but Putin has already snaffled the Crimea and the Donbass region so he's not exactly occupying the moral high ground.
Oh, and why should a state run by a despot prevent another State, which is more democratic, in deciding what it wants to do regarding its own security?

They shouldn't. but Russia - and China - have long memories. Don't forget Iraq, Syria, Libya - the West 'invaded' those nations, and has, and still does, try to instill regime changes in many other countries.

[MOZZER2]

President Zelensky, addressing the nation, says "we are told that February 16 will be the day of the attack. We will make it the Day of Unity... On this day, we will hoist national flags, put on blue and yellow ribbons and show the world our unity."

[Taunton Blue Genie]

Access to the black sea is not such a goal, everything still has to go through the bosphoros, and its so shallow submarines have to surface so every movement is logged by NATO.
Ukraine produces a vast percentage of the worlds grain, and sell a lot to Russia, but if the Russian take over the production it will be fecked because of the level of corruption that will be imported.

As I stated, additional access to the Black Sea wouldn't go amiss but it's not the main objective at all.

[Organ Morgan.]

Having read this thread I've made a note in my diary for 16-02-2022: what may later become known as World War 3 is scheduled to start today in Ukraine.

Possibly the best and most brutal anti-war movie ever made is a German language one titled Stalingrad. It's viewable at youtube for free with English subtitles, here - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VnJJQxZ0hu8

[Rjk]

https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/sta...I3QHS3t6A&s=19

definitely no false flag being planned here.