Caerphilly prediction
Sadly a complete walkover for reform
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Caerphilly prediction
Sadly a complete walkover for reform
I think Plaid will win actually. Which is a remarkable result as Labour have literally won everything there and Plaid have a long history in the area.
I have also been impressed by their candidate, who comes across really well. Many don't, Leanne Wood for example, but he seems to genuinely care about the area which seems rare in a politician of any colour.
On the other hand Plaid are seen as propping up the political establishment in Wales and people (rightly) want change in the UK, so Reform will do very well considering, but I think Plaid will win by 4-5pts
One of the big problems in Wales is how much civic society is tied to support / non opposition to "the party". Your career will be stunted if you speak out too much, very few editors or journalists at Wales Online, BBC, anyone too high up at the FAW or WRU or high ranking civil servants, prominent people at universities will have a history of speaking out or being overly critical.
Throughout history I think the Labour party have generally been a force for good, but our addiction to them is unhealthy and at the very least we need a break.
Another nail in the coffin for the buffoons, today they are saying 10% of subjects should be taught in Welsh by 2030. What’s the point of this? It’s bad enough kids have to do 2 GCSEs in Welsh already when they could be doing something useful for their futures. Might be relevant in the backwaters of the north but I doubt it will go down well in cosmopolitan Cardiff where it’s already the 4th most spoken language.