If we can average 2 points a game between now and the end of the season we'll have 91 points. In 2018, we've more than achieved that, gaining 20 points from 9 games. If we kept up that ratio, we'd have 93 points.

In 2018, Villa have managed 2 points more than us, but if both us and Villa keep up our 2018 form we'd finish 2nd. For Villa to pip us they'd most likely need to win 2 more games than us. 7 wins for us means they'd need 9 from 12. Possible, but tough.

This year Fulham have been the best Championship side. 13 games unbeaten in the league, only dropping 6 points. If both us and Fulham keep up our 2018 form we'd still finish 2nd. For Fulham to pip us they'd most likely need to win 3 more games than us, given that we have a game in hand. 7 wins for us mean they need 9 from 11. That's beyond what they've achieved in their previous 11 games.

Going back to averaging 2 points a game, if we can manage it, Villa need to average 2.33 points a game and Fulham 2.73 points a game. From the position of both Villa and Fulham, only Sunderland in 2004/5 managed that sort of points ratio to go from playoff position to automatic promotion over the last 20 years, so such a run of form would be highly unusual, whereas getting 2 points a game has occurred far more often.

When you stretch out the run of form that it becomes more implausible - this potentially will cause problems for both Villa and Fulham. Should we get to 91 points, Fulham will have needed to get 53 points from their last 20 games; Villa will have needed 44. Sunderland managed 45 points over that same 20 game period, Reading managed a similar total when they won over 100 points. That's the sort of perspective that needs consideration - for Villa to reach 92 points it would take one of the very best last 20 game run-ins there's ever been from a promoted side, in particular from a side not in the top 2. For Fulham to manage it would be unheard of. That's not to suggest it can't happen, but the likelihood is very, very remote, to the point that if one of them managed it, you take your hat off and bow down to a brilliant run of form.

7 wins with a few draws will give us 2 points a game average between now and the end of the season. That will 99% certain mean automatic promotion. 6 wins leaves Villa with a lot of work to do and Fulham still requiring a miracle. 5 wins means we're catchable - any less and we wouldn't have deserved promotion.