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Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?

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  • Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?

    Looking at the FIFA rankings prior to the tournament, these were the FIFA rankings of all sides in Euro 2020, where the rankings given are for UEFA countries only.

    1 Belgium
    2 France
    3 England
    4 Portugal
    5 Spain
    6 Italy
    7 Denmark
    8 Germany
    9 Switzerland
    10 Croatia
    11 Netherlands
    12 Wales
    13 Sweden
    14 Poland
    15 Austria
    16 Ukraine
    18 Turkey
    19 Slovakia
    20 Hungary
    21 Russia
    22 Czech Republic
    25 Scotland
    30 Finland
    32 North Macedonia

    It's perhaps not too much of a surprise that 21 of the top 24 European countries made the championship. Serbia (17th), Norway and Romania (23rd and 24th) missed out.

    You'd expect most of the top 16 UEFA countries to make the last 16 and this is what has very nearly happened. The only top 16 country to miss out was Poland, with only the Czech Republic making the last 16 as a country outside the top 16 (though they're heading in that direction).

    2nd place in our group was a decent achievement given that we were ranked 3rd in the group from our FIFA rankings. Turkey were also the highest non top 16 UEFA side in the rankings. However, 12th in the rankings and 12 top 2 sides from 6 groups suggest second wasn't beyond us. Had we finished 3rd, it would have been the joint 2nd best 3rd place finish, so in terms of rankings, we achieved roughly what we might have expected due to the rankings.

    One way of looking at how tough each group was would be to consider the average UEFA ranking of the 4 countries in each. This is how they compare:

    F - 8.5
    A - 11.25
    E - 12.75
    B - 14.75
    D - 15
    C - 18.5

    To finish 2nd in the second toughest group (according to the rankings) is a greater achievement.

    In the last 16, the higher ranked side has won 3 of the 4 games so far. The only exception is the Kingdom of the Netherlands, who are ranked 11th in UEFA. Defeat to Denmark was not a surprise based on the rankings. England vs Germany is the only last 16 tie left to feature two top 8 sides, while Sweden vs Ukraine is the only one left not to feature any top 8 sides.

    In other words, reaching the last 16 should have been the minimum requirement - anything more would have been a bonus. We managed that.

    Of course this doesn't take into account relative sizes of countries, where we've massively over achieved in recent years. I think our achievement is to have been one of the better footballing countries in Europe for a few years now and hopefully the future continues to be bright for a few more years yet.

  • #2
    Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?

    Ratings for national football teams based on the Elo rating system.


    I find the elo ratings a bit better than the FIFA rankings - although there isn't a huge amount of difference at the moment

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?

      Yes. We’re that high in the rankings because we’re greater than the sum of our parts.

      When you got someone who can’t get in Luton’s squad, not looking out of place on the international stage it really shows you that we could be doing hell of a lot worse.

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      • #4
        Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?

        Originally posted by Rjk View Post
        https://www.eloratings.net/

        I find the elo ratings a bit better than the FIFA rankings - although there isn't a huge amount of difference at the moment
        All rankings have a flaw to them somewhere along the line.

        While not football, one such example is Jonny Clayton in darts. Premier League champion, Masters champion, probably 2nd best player in the world this year. Not in the top 16 as the two tournament wins were non-ranking!

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        • #5
          Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?

          In another thread I said the individual result that should be focused on is the Switzerland one because of the FIFA rankings and because they're such an experienced and decent tournament side - their record is now qualifying for 8 of past 9 tournaments and getting to knock-out stages in 5 of those - so can see where you're coming from.

          On paper somewhat expecting to qualifying as at least one of the third best sides does show how well we've done over last 10 years or so.

          However, I've also previously highlighted the issues which I feel sets our tournament apart from most (CEO stepping down, manager stepping away 3 months before tournament starts, filling an empty seat in backroom staff with someone not in work since 2019, amount of travel to what felt like a series of away grounds) which you've not mentioned. I don't think we could have expected qualification despite positive FIFA rankings, getting to the knock-outs was important to keep the momentum going and finishing second in the group was a fine achievement. I wish we hadn't let our frustrations show as much in last game but this side, again, has been through a lot so I expect them to learn from it but I'll forgive and forget it quickly.

          Regarding next steps, I think this tweet says it all:

          Consolidating future qualifications, transitioning to next generation of players, maintaining the allure of playing for Wales over other potential nations AND, crucially, getting the women’s team to a major tournament all make up a massive task. But doable!

          https://twitter.com/tomandersonbks/s...37324194533379

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?

            Yes

            Well done Wales

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            • #7
              Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?

              Yes.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?

                Why don’t you put population figures against each country and see where we should “rank” in those terms?

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                • #9
                  Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?

                  I think to find ourselves in these rankings are great.

                  Scotland and Ireland haven’t been as far as us and they have a larger pool of players to choose from.

                  We’ve done well and moved on from the Alun Evans days!

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                  • #10
                    Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?

                    Yes of course it bloody is. Turkey looked strong heading into the tournament, the Swiss as pointed out are tournament regulars and Italy are Italy. Getting third would have been an achievement, but 2nd place was well beyond what I expected.

                    We have to remember outside of Bale and Ramsey our squad just isnt very good. Having a Luton backup starting for us whilst teams like Switzerland have an Arsenal and Atalanta player starting in midfield just highlights how far we are away from a lot of sides irrespective of what the rankings say.

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                    • #11
                      Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?

                      This seems a chicken and egg situation.

                      You can point out that we're doing just about what we should according to the rankings - well, let's step back and appreciate how well we are doing in the rankings. We are not historically a top ranked European team. We don't even have a professional league at home.

                      The rankings reflect consistently good results over a period of time, and there we are sitting in the middle. We're above teams who have a strong tournament record in recent years (Turkey, Sweden, Czechs).

                      Yes, it's an achievement, all of it.

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                      • #12
                        Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?

                        Originally posted by WJ99mobile View Post
                        Yes. We’re that high in the rankings because we’re greater than the sum of our parts.

                        When you got someone who can’t get in Luton’s squad, not looking out of place on the international stage it really shows you that we could be doing hell of a lot worse.
                        Not looking out place? He was horribly exposed during this tournament for me.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?

                          Originally posted by Toadstool View Post
                          Why don’t you put population figures against each country and see where we should “rank” in those terms?
                          I get that population plays a massive part but Belgium are ranked number one with only 11 million population.

                          Maybe we need to focus on other things like better infrastructure and better coaching, instead of just using "little old Wales" as an excuse.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?

                            You look at the rankings for the world and to get to the last 16 in a European championship would be about par on paper.

                            It's never as easy as that and never will be for us.

                            I wasn't surprised we got through the group, I was 50/50 pre tournament.

                            I wouldn't say getting through the group is an achievement but more the overall and continued progress of Welsh international football where I'm no longer surprised by our successes and was actually more surprised and disappointed by the 4 nil capitulation.

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                            • #15
                              Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?

                              Originally posted by UNDERHILL1927 View Post
                              I get that population plays a massive part but Belgium are ranked number one with only 11 million population.

                              Maybe we need to focus on other things like better infrastructure and better coaching, instead of just using "little old Wales" as an excuse.
                              I want to know what Croatia do with only 4 million. I guess if there is a focus on a particular sport then anything is possible.

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