Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

[JamesWales]

Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

Do you think there's a possibility, just a chance, that the death figures in previous years may give us an indication of the effect of the virus?

Here are the totals for the numbers of deaths in England and Wales for 2010 to 2020 (the figure for 2021 isn't available yet):

2010 - 493,242
2011 - 484,397
2012 - 499,331
2013 - 506,790
2014 - 501,424
2015 - 529,655
2016 - 525,048
2017 - 533,253
2018 - 541,589
2019 - 530,841
2020 - 607,922

(Source: the Office of National Statistics)

Spot the odd one out.

Were you aware that the total number of deaths in England and Wales (and the whole of the UK) in 2020 was the highest for more than a century? Back in 1918, when there happened to be a global flu pandemic, the total number of deaths registered in England and Wales was 611,861. Between then and 2020, the highest figure was 591,889 in 1972.

Out of interest, do we know when 2021 figures are out? Presumably, despite the important nature of the topic, it isnt actually a huge undertaking to add up death figures?

[JamesWales]

Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

Some interesting but pretty inconclusive stuff here.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/monthlymortalityanalysisenglandandwales/december2021

From what I can tell looking at a couple of things, 2021 will be another year of above average death figures.

[Cardiff Ultra]

Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

I like the premise that in some way COVID deaths don't count if the person had something else other than COVID on their death certificates.

Th majority of deaths from AIDS are not caused by the virus but by diseases such as TB (the cause of 25% of AIDS related deaths) which are able to attack the person because their immune system has been weakened by the disease. No one in their right mind has ever argued that these deaths should be attributed to anything other than AIDS, perhaps because when AIDS was at its height there weren't a load of batshit conspiracy theorists doing their 'own research' on twitter.

[The Lone Gunman]

Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

Out of interest, do we know when 2021 figures are out? Presumably, despite the important nature of the topic, it isnt actually a huge undertaking to add up death figures?

Judging by the notes I read regarding the 2020 figures, it will be around May or June. There is a provisional figure ahead of that, but it gets adjusted.

It's not a simple case of arithmetic. Some deaths take a long time to register due to various enquiries and anomalies. This much I know as registering deaths at sea has been a part of my job in the past. Some registrations can drag on for months.

[xsnaggle]

Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

What happened in those 7 minutes between 02:17 and 02:24 that made you decide you wanted to add a bit of spice to the message?

What a stupid comment. Typical of people on here who want to have a dig but can't think of anything constructive to say. Like the 1000000 comment.
What happened was I was working. What were you doing, wanking?

[lardy]

Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

Nobody here overreacts quite like xsnaggle

[xsnaggle]

Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

Nobody here overreacts quite like xsnaggle

Well be fair. It was a totally stupid comment. He even checked the timings. Sad!!!

[JamesWales]

Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

What a stupid comment. Typical of people on here who want to have a dig but can't think of anything constructive to say. Like the 1000000 comment.
What happened was I was working. What were you doing, wanking?

Delmbox wishes he could wank between 02.17 and 02.24. According to ALL OF UR MUMS he would only normally last until 02.19.

[xsnaggle]

Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

to try to illustrate the basic point i was trying to make look if you will at the numbers given her by the ONS. It shows death in the last month of 2021 and the first week of 2022. One set shows and increase the other a decrease. To attain the mean figure we have to deduct one from the other.
given that the pandemic in UK started in Mar 2020 and went on (for example) until Dec 2021, a period of 20 month,s we should then look at the figures of the next 20 months to determine the overall difference above the average. That would be a better indicator of the actual number of excess deaths over a period.
It may well be that the figure is much higher, and evidence suggests that will be the case, but until we have that data no one can say with any certainty.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths

If these figures aren't collated to establish trends then there is no point in collating them at all.
now I'm going back to sleep because I was working last night, whatever Delm may have been doing.

[Canton Kev]

Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

Out of interest, do we know when 2021 figures are out? Presumably, despite the important nature of the topic, it isnt actually a huge undertaking to add up death figures?

It’s not the confirmed figure but the preliminary figures for 2021 deaths are 586,214 deaths. Compared to the 2015-2019 5 year average that’s a ~11% increase.

The data can be found here:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2fbirthsdeathsandmarriages%2fdeaths%2fdatasets%2fmonthlyfiguresondeathsregisteredbyareaofusualresidence%2f2021/deathsregisteredmonthlyusualareaofresidenceenglandandwales.xlsx

[az city]

Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

It can't be argued they are higher- as they are. However isn't there a more nuanced debate to be had around the reasons (and it won't be a single reason) for these deaths.

For example how many extra have died because of cancer due to so much of our normal NHS all but disappearing as it focused almost entirely on covid?

And how many fewer deaths from 'flu, traffic accidents etc? It cuts both ways.

[az city]

Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

to try to illustrate the basic point i was trying to make look if you will at the numbers given her by the ONS. It shows death in the last month of 2021 and the first week of 2022. One set shows and increase the other a decrease. To attain the mean figure we have to deduct one from the other.
given that the pandemic in UK started in Mar 2020 and went on (for example) until Dec 2021, a period of 20 month,s we should then look at the figures of the next 20 months to determine the overall difference above the average. That would be a better indicator of the actual number of excess deaths over a period.
It may well be that the figure is much higher, and evidence suggests that will be the case, but until we have that data no one can say with any certainty.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths

If these figures aren't collated to establish trends then there is no point in collating them at all.
now I'm going back to sleep because I was working last night, whatever Delm may have been doing.

I have to confess I really don't understand what you're trying to argue. Just trying to clarify a little here...

Most governments have an agency that calculates EXPECTED (EXP) deaths by time period. I think the UK uses 5 years of back data for its modeling. Just an aside, the statistical models used to forecast EXP deaths are not straightforward simple linear extrapolations. They are much more complex - for instance - they split the population into age cohorts and examine what is going on within each cohort. ACTUAL (ACT) deaths are counted for each time period. (Let's put the issue of how deaths are counted and classified to one side.) EXCESS (XS) deaths is the difference for a given time period between the number of expected deaths and actual deaths: XS = ACT - EXP.

Take 2020, 2021 and 2022 and tell us what you're asserting about XS, ACT and EXP for each year and the point you're making from the assertions.

[Father Dougal]

Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

And how many fewer deaths from 'flu, traffic accidents etc? It cuts both ways.

Maybe. Yes I was wondering if that will have an impact.

Also can't just be taken year by year in terms of overall cost of deaths. Eg if it is higher in 2021 and even 2022 or 2023 how many of those deaths could be traced back to the taking away of the normal health service for such a long period of time. Caner charities say we are seeing more and more cancers in later stages coming through now that weren't picked up for example.

[Eric Cartman]

Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

It can't be argued they are higher- as they are. However isn't there a more nuanced debate to be had around the reasons (and it won't be a single reason) for these deaths.

For example how many extra have died because of cancer due to so much of our normal NHS all but disappearing as it focused almost entirely on covid?

It is a bit of a get out though isn't it.

"OH THOSE PEOPLE, yeah they died with covid not OF covid"

"Okay so shall we look at excess deaths then?"

"Well they could have died of anything!"

[Eric Cartman]

Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

Maybe. Yes I was wondering if that will have an impact.

Also can't just be taken year by year in terms of overall cost of deaths. Eg if it is higher in 2021 and even 2022 or 2023 how many of those deaths could be traced back to the taking away of the normal health service for such a long period of time. Caner charities say we are seeing more and more cancers in later stages coming through now that weren't picked up for example.

I doubt they would also endorse the messages earlier in this thread.