Sky Prediction Of General Election

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Labour short of majority by 30 seats

Electoral Calculus site ? .......Labour majority of at least 150 seats

Mmmmm

[Dave Blue]

Re: Sky Prediction Of General Election

Labour short of majority by 30 seats

Electoral Calculus site ? .......Labour majority of at least 150 seats

Mmmmm

Locals don’t mean much, turnout is too low to forecast a GE.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: Sky Prediction Of General Election

Locals don’t mean much, turnout is too low to forecast a GE.

I am very cynical of starmer getting a big majority , I will be happy enough with having to form a coalition with the liberals

I mean if a 50 seat majority is achievable then great but I just have my doubts

[Keyser Soze]

Re: Sky Prediction Of General Election

hmm

[Keyser Soze]

Re: Sky Prediction Of General Election

Evening.

The cynicism is understandable. I also suspect that 14 years of Conservative wins may create the scepticism. Starmer is no Blair or Thatcher. . I think Cameron would be third behind those two. But Sunak isn’t anywhere near. He isn’t as bad as Truss but I would put even John Major and Edward Heath above this goon. Perhaps even William Hague was better. I would say that Sunak is the Iain Duncan-Smith of 2024. I always come back to the 3 P’s: Policy, Personality and Persuasion. He has none. He is a sad little spreadsheet jockey and that is it. Empty shell, nothing to tell.

I would also remind of you of these points:

- Governments of 10 years or more are bloody rare. 14 is long in the tooth. Probability is hugely tilted against the Conservatives. Either you have to be special to win beyond 10 years, or the opponents have to be in a right mess in order to win again. For Blair and Thatcher this was true. Neither are true this time.

- Despite your reservation with Starmer and his lack of stardust, it is a relative game, not absolute. Starmer is average, but Sunak is the Daschund’s dog shit. Starmer is relatively better. Sunak is tainted.

- Funding. Labour are stealing the major backers of Conservatives: private equity, large banks and elite construction firms are all turning to Labour. Money funds campaigns.

- Economy: This is often the Conservatives calling card. Not this time. Inflation is sticky. By the time the November election comes it will be higher and interest rates too. Nobody feels good except the rich. You can’t win on that ticket.

- Perception: As with Major’s 1997 mob this governments has lost all it’s competent big beasts. Cabinet members are now no more competent than the Welsh assembly AMs, are bent or corrupt or sound useless. They don’t act nor sound like one.

- Credibility: Sunak is failing on 4 of his 5 promises: his credibility is a cooked goose

- NHS: In tatters.’In tatters’ matters to most people and the fact it is worsening and doctors local services being in a national mess will be too billing at the next election

- Key Battlegrounds: Labour are walking it on low turnout. Sunak is delaying a straight fight aa he is gambling on an economic fairytale by November. The fairy will have no tale to tell. That is for the birds.

There is no redeeming feature about Sunak at all. He is a spoilt, husband of a billionaire inheritee, with offshore activities, zero personality, zero charm, zero humour, zero track record, zero ideas ans surrounded by baboons with zero capability. He will be royally bummed in the general election, and I hope he fails to find the lube.

[Keyser Soze]

Re: Sky Prediction Of General Election

hmmm..

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Sky Prediction Of General Election

Evening.

The cynicism is understandable. I also suspect that 14 years of Conservative wins may create the scepticism. Starmer is no Blair or Thatcher. . I think Cameron would be third behind those two. But Sunak isn’t anywhere near. He isn’t as bad as Truss but I would put even John Major and Edward Heath above this goon. Perhaps even William Hague was better. I would say that Sunak is the Iain Duncan-Smith of 2024. I always come back to the 3 P’s: Policy, Personality and Persuasion. He has none. He is a sad little spreadsheet jockey and that is it. Empty shell, nothing to tell.

I would also remind of you of these points:

- Governments of 10 years or more are bloody rare. 14 is long in the tooth. Probability is hugely tilted against the Conservatives. Either you have to be special to win beyond 10 years, or the opponents have to be in a right mess in order to win again. For Blair and Thatcher this was true. Neither are true this time.

- Despite your reservation with Starmer and his lack of stardust, it is a relative game, not absolute. Starmer is average, but Sunak is the Daschund’s dog shit. Starmer is relatively better. Sunak is tainted.

- Funding. Labour are stealing the major backers of Conservatives: private equity, large banks and elite construction firms are all turning to Labour. Money funds campaigns.

- Economy: This is often the Conservatives calling card. Not this time. Inflation is sticky. By the time the November election comes it will be higher and interest rates too. Nobody feels good except the rich. You can’t win on that ticket.

- Perception: As with Major’s 1997 mob this governments has lost all it’s competent big beasts. Cabinet members are now no more competent than the Welsh assembly AMs, are bent or corrupt or sound useless. They don’t act nor sound like one.

- Credibility: Sunak is failing on 4 of his 5 promises: his credibility is a cooked goose

- NHS: In tatters.’In tatters’ matters to most people and the fact it is worsening and doctors local services being in a national mess will be too billing at the next election

- Key Battlegrounds: Labour are walking it on low turnout. Sunak is delaying a straight fight aa he is gambling on an economic fairytale by November. The fairy will have no tale to tell. That is for the birds.

There is no redeeming feature about Sunak at all. He is a spoilt, husband of a billionaire inheritee, with offshore activities, zero personality, zero charm, zero humour, zero track record, zero ideas ans surrounded by baboons with zero capability. He will be royally bummed in the general election, and I hope he fails to find the lube.

Cameron? The dodgy genius who came up with the Brexit referendum because he was sure the result would be remain? I’d put him above the four who came after him, but none of the other Prime Ministers I’ve seen.

As for Starmer, he’s a lucky man because it would appear that the election when it finally comes will almost certainly rest on the great swathes of the country that have decided this Government has to go - I detect no enthusiasm for Starmer as PM, but it’s hard to see how it doesn’t happen now.

[Eric Cartman]

Re: Sky Prediction Of General Election

Labour short of majority by 30 seats

Electoral Calculus site ? .......Labour majority of at least 150 seats

Mmmmm

This is just confirmation bias. Taking local election results and projecting them nationally is about as flawed as you can get, you want to trust it because it validates what you have been saying.

[goats]

Re: Sky Prediction Of General Election

Does it even matter who wins? I mean, what difference will we see really? Look at the last 25 years……all we will see is probably a Labour win and years of moaning as they struggle to turn things around just blaming the Tory’s for ruining everything. People will start to lose it as they see no change and we are back to status quo again.

[Eric Cartman]

Re: Sky Prediction Of General Election

Cameron? The dodgy genius who came up with the Brexit referendum because he was sure the result would be remain? I’d put him above the four who came after him, but none of the other Prime Ministers I’ve seen.

As for Starmer, he’s a lucky man because it would appear that the election when it finally comes will almost certainly rest on the great swathes of the country that have decided this Government has to go - I detect no enthusiasm for Starmer as PM, but it’s hard to see how it doesn’t happen now.

Now I am not saying this is WHY you think it but it highlights one of the few successes of Tory comms in recent times. The Tories have systematically been pumping news outlets with 'theres no enthusiasm for Starmer' for months now. They will up the ante now using the locals as evidence because most people won't recognise how stupid that is. They said the same with Blair.

https://twitter.com/AndrejNkv/status/1715316847355077034

It's a weird one because it is essentially an admission that the public would rather vote for anybody else but them, but in some mind****ery way, it does seem to cut through.

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Sky Prediction Of General Election

Evening.

The cynicism is understandable. I also suspect that 14 years of Conservative wins may create the scepticism. Starmer is no Blair or Thatcher. . I think Cameron would be third behind those two. But Sunak isn’t anywhere near. He isn’t as bad as Truss but I would put even John Major and Edward Heath above this goon. Perhaps even William Hague was better. I would say that Sunak is the Iain Duncan-Smith of 2024. I always come back to the 3 P’s: Policy, Personality and Persuasion. He has none. He is a sad little spreadsheet jockey and that is it. Empty shell, nothing to tell.

I would also remind of you of these points:

- Governments of 10 years or more are bloody rare. 14 is long in the tooth. Probability is hugely tilted against the Conservatives. Either you have to be special to win beyond 10 years, or the opponents have to be in a right mess in order to win again. For Blair and Thatcher this was true. Neither are true this time.

- Despite your reservation with Starmer and his lack of stardust, it is a relative game, not absolute. Starmer is average, but Sunak is the Daschund’s dog shit. Starmer is relatively better. Sunak is tainted.

- Funding. Labour are stealing the major backers of Conservatives: private equity, large banks and elite construction firms are all turning to Labour. Money funds campaigns.

- Economy: This is often the Conservatives calling card. Not this time. Inflation is sticky. By the time the November election comes it will be higher and interest rates too. Nobody feels good except the rich. You can’t win on that ticket.

- Perception: As with Major’s 1997 mob this governments has lost all it’s competent big beasts. Cabinet members are now no more competent than the Welsh assembly AMs, are bent or corrupt or sound useless. They don’t act nor sound like one.

- Credibility: Sunak is failing on 4 of his 5 promises: his credibility is a cooked goose

- NHS: In tatters.’In tatters’ matters to most people and the fact it is worsening and doctors local services being in a national mess will be too billing at the next election

- Key Battlegrounds: Labour are walking it on low turnout. Sunak is delaying a straight fight aa he is gambling on an economic fairytale by November. The fairy will have no tale to tell. That is for the birds.

There is no redeeming feature about Sunak at all. He is a spoilt, husband of a billionaire inheritee, with offshore activities, zero personality, zero charm, zero humour, zero track record, zero ideas ans surrounded by baboons with zero capability. He will be royally bummed in the general election, and I hope he fails to find the lube.

My breakdown of the Prime Ministers of my lifetime.

MacMillan and Douglas-Home, I can remember them being PM, but I was only eight at the time, so no opinion on them.
Wilson, wouldn't trust him an inch, but a shrewd politician.
Heath, a one nation Tory, stubborn and I'm not sure he was temperamentally suited for the job.
Callaghan, not much good - he made a big mistake in not calling an election in autumn 1978 and I don't say that with the benefit of hindsight, I thought it at the time.
Thatcher - hated her, but cannot deny that she changed the country and so was a very significant politician.
Major, think he gets a bad and somewhat unfair press, had an almost impossible job, but winning in 1992 was impressive even it ended up being a poisoned chalice.
Blair, my first impression was I don't like you, but that opinion mellowed until the invasion of Iraq - that will define his career, but he was a substantial figure who got a lot right.
Brown, think his heart was in the right place, but another who may not have been suited temperamentally to be PM.
Cameron, caricature tory (was never going to effectively sell the "we're all in it together" line), had an air of authority, but his judgment was flawed.
May, conscientious, but ineffective - has the ever been a worse election campaigner than her in 2017?
Johnson, charismatic (never seen it myself mind), but a serial liar - should never have been allowed within a million miles of the job because he never treated it with the respect it deserves.
Truss,
Sunak, petulant, with nothing in common with the ordinary "man/woman in the street" and zero political skills.

[Eric Cartman]

Re: Sky Prediction Of General Election

Evening.

The cynicism is understandable. I also suspect that 14 years of Conservative wins may create the scepticism. Starmer is no Blair or Thatcher. . I think Cameron would be third behind those two. But Sunak isn’t anywhere near. He isn’t as bad as Truss but I would put even John Major and Edward Heath above this goon. Perhaps even William Hague was better. I would say that Sunak is the Iain Duncan-Smith of 2024. I always come back to the 3 P’s: Policy, Personality and Persuasion. He has none. He is a sad little spreadsheet jockey and that is it. Empty shell, nothing to tell.

I would also remind of you of these points:

- Governments of 10 years or more are bloody rare. 14 is long in the tooth. Probability is hugely tilted against the Conservatives. Either you have to be special to win beyond 10 years, or the opponents have to be in a right mess in order to win again. For Blair and Thatcher this was true. Neither are true this time.

- Despite your reservation with Starmer and his lack of stardust, it is a relative game, not absolute. Starmer is average, but Sunak is the Daschund’s dog shit. Starmer is relatively better. Sunak is tainted.

- Funding. Labour are stealing the major backers of Conservatives: private equity, large banks and elite construction firms are all turning to Labour. Money funds campaigns.

- Economy: This is often the Conservatives calling card. Not this time. Inflation is sticky. By the time the November election comes it will be higher and interest rates too. Nobody feels good except the rich. You can’t win on that ticket.

- Perception: As with Major’s 1997 mob this governments has lost all it’s competent big beasts. Cabinet members are now no more competent than the Welsh assembly AMs, are bent or corrupt or sound useless. They don’t act nor sound like one.

- Credibility: Sunak is failing on 4 of his 5 promises: his credibility is a cooked goose

- NHS: In tatters.’In tatters’ matters to most people and the fact it is worsening and doctors local services being in a national mess will be too billing at the next election

- Key Battlegrounds: Labour are walking it on low turnout. Sunak is delaying a straight fight aa he is gambling on an economic fairytale by November. The fairy will have no tale to tell. That is for the birds.

There is no redeeming feature about Sunak at all. He is a spoilt, husband of a billionaire inheritee, with offshore activities, zero personality, zero charm, zero humour, zero track record, zero ideas ans surrounded by baboons with zero capability. He will be royally bummed in the general election, and I hope he fails to find the lube.

Just a reminder, after 13 years of a labour government, Cameron couldn't get a majority. The dark arts of media training and pr were in his corner but people were generally holding their nose and voting for him. It's easy to look back on Cameron as some well polished statesman after what we have seen since but it's worth remembering that in fact he didn't really capture the imagination of the public at large.

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Sky Prediction Of General Election

Now I am not saying this is WHY you think it but it highlights one of the few successes of Tory comms in recent times. The Tories have systematically been pumping news outlets with 'theres no enthusiasm for Starmer' for months now. They will up the ante now using the locals as evidence because most people won't recognise how stupid that is. They said the same with Blair.

https://twitter.com/AndrejNkv/status/1715316847355077034

It's a weird one because it is essentially an admission that the public would rather vote for anybody else but them, but in some mind****ery way, it does seem to cut through.

What evidence do you see of enthusiasm for Starmer? I can understand his caution in a way, but he needs to increasingly get on the front foot in the coming months.

The Tories have got little left to campaign effectively with and targeting Starmer seems a sensible way for them to go to me because I dont' see the same attitude towards him that there was towards Blair leading up to 1997. I did warm to Starmer somewhat when I heard he'd been self deprecating about his speeches a while ago, I think that a bit more of that would go down well with voters (think a lot of Johnson's appeal came from that).

[Eric Cartman]

Re: Sky Prediction Of General Election

What evidence do you see of enthusiasm for Starmer? I can understand his caution in a way, but he needs to increasingly get on the front foot in the coming months.

The Tories have got little left to campaign effectively with and targeting Starmer seems a sensible way for them to go to me because I dont' see the same attitude towards him that there was towards Blair leading up to 1997. I did warm to Starmer somewhat when I heard he'd been self deprecating about his speeches a while ago, I think that a bit more of that would go down well with voters (think a lot of Johnson's appeal came from that).

I don't really know what you are expecting, people dancing in the streets chanting his name? Centre ground policies aren't going to excite people, economically left policies are political suicide because the UK is run by those with vested interests. Starmer has consistently gone for the 'im more ethical and efficient than the Tories' and it has worked if the polls are to be believed.

The country is ****ed to almost incredible levels (via Tory lack of vision and incompetence in combination with 'acts of god'). If labour make grand promises they can't achieve, they will be judged accordingly. What are labour meant to actually do with a country with broken underfunded public services, near record tax burden, low wages, enormous debt and consistently flat lining growth? A slow grind is the only way, maybe they won't be given multiple terms to try and fix things, maybe they aren't capable of fixing things, which knows.

I would prefer them to have more vision/ambition but we are where we are.