In total, 30 sides have been relegated from the Championship over the last 10 seasons.

5 of those 30 sides were outside the relegation zone with 8 games to go; 25 were in the bottom 3. Included in this stat are Reading, who were docked 6 points in 2022/23 but would still have been outside the bottom 3 had the deduction occurred sooner.

Reading are one of only two sides in the last decade to have gone down having been more than a point ahead of the bottom 3.

In 6 of the last 10 seasons, the gap between 21st and the bottom 3 has been one point or fewer. 4 of those sides have survived, only 2 have been relegated. Both of those sides that were relegated were level on points with one or more sides in the bottom 3, so no side in the last decade in 21st has gone down having had more points than the side in 22nd. Of course, 3 sides placed higher than 21st have gone down.

In 6 of the last 10 seasons, the bottom 3 with 8 games to go have all gone down. In only 1 of the last 10 seasons have two sides outside the bottom 3 at this point in the season been relegated. Needless to say, the distance sides are away from the bottom 3 is important. Of the 5 sides that have survived after being in the bottom 3 with 8 games to go, 3 recovered from being 4 or more points adrift from safety.

What does that all mean for us? It's impossible to predict what is going to happen at the end of the season. However, being outside the bottom 3, even by a slender point, is more likely to mean survival than relegation, while not too many teams recover when they're in the bottom 3. Luton and Plymouth will do very well to survive. It's also worth suggesting that teams as far as Portsmouth are not safe, though Swansea probably are.