So, give us a quick overview now?
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Firstly, Wales need to win their last 3 games to guarantee 2nd place. That would put them on 20 points. Here's a look at who they might catch.
Group A - France look likely winners with two easy home games, so 2nd place is between Sweden, Bulgaria and The Netherlands (13, 12 and 10 points respectively). All could hinge on Sweden and Bulgaria both playing in Amsterdam while Bulgaria have a home tie against France, too. The Netherlands vs Sweden is the last fixture in the group, so unless Sweden win that and all of their remaining games, the runner-up in group A will have a maximum of 20 points.
Group B - Between Switzerland and Portugal. No chance of catching the runner up.
Group C - Almost certain Germany will win the group, Northern Ireland highly likely runner up. Currently Norn Ireland have 16 points but host both Germany and the Czech Republic, while they also travel to Norway. Getting 5 points to finish on 21 points from those fixtures is no gimme.
Group E - Between Poland, Montenegro and Denmark (16, 13 and 13 points respectively). Poland have a better run-in, Montenegro host Denmark and travel to Poland in their last two fixtures. Assuming Poland win the group (they play the bottom two sides next), it would be a big surprise if either Montenegro or Denmark win all of their remaining fixtures, so there's every chance the runner-up in group E will have no more than 20 points.
Group F - Pretty much sorted between England and Slovakia, although Slovakia travel to both England and Scotland. I'd expect England to win that one and, if Scotland can beat Slovakia too, the runner up in this group won't have more than 20 points.
Group G - Between Spain and Italy, runner-up here is probably uncatchable.
Group H - Virtually won by Belgium, 2nd place is between Greece, Bosnia and possibly Cyprus (13, 11 and 10 points respectively). Greece host Belgium tonight, Bosnia host Belgium in the last round of matches, so barring unlikely Belgian defeats, the runner up here won't have more than 20 points.
Group I - A 4-way tussle between Croatia, Ukraine, Iceland and Turkey (16, 14, 13 and 11 points respectively). Croatia travel to Turkey and Ukraine, Iceland host Ukraine while Turkey host Iceland. Goodness knows what's likely to happen here, difficult to see any team winning their last 3 games, so again there's a possibility that the runner up of group I will have no more than 20 points.
Results against the team finishing bottom aren't taken into account, but it's worth noting that only Poland, of all the teams that have any reasonable chance of qualifying, are the only team to have dropped any points against any of the current bottom teams. Group A might get a bit messy with Luxembourg and Belarus trying not to finish bottom (would affect Bulgaria so far who lost to Belarus), Georgia's point against us could help us if somehow Moldova could win a game (not Tuesday) and not finish bottom.
Of course, all this becomes irrelevant if we fail to win our last 3 games. Anyone fancy a last minute penalty against the Republic?
So, give us a quick overview now?
An update from tonight. Greece's defeat to Belgium means that 2nd place can only get a maximum of 20 points. That will drop should Bosnia drop points against Belgium next month.
2 games to go for everyone, so another recap.
Group A - France's draw against Luxembourg has opened the group up a bit. They face Bulgaria next time around and defeat is likely to see them lose top spot to Sweden. Bulgaria need a win or their chances will have gone. Netherlands should win in Belarus but they need a hatful or they'll have no chance of overtaking Sweden when they meet in their final match. In terms of qualification, France are still probably favourites and will surely win the group if they win in Bulgaria. Sweden are favourites to finish above the Netherlands even if they lose in Amsterdam. 2nd place to have a minimum of 19 points, 20 more likely, 22 if Sweden and France win their last two.
Group B - No chance of catching 2nd.
Group C - Germany probable winners. Northern Ireland's win over the Czech Republic means a win in either of their last two games would put them above Wales in terms of playoffs. They face Germany at home and Norway away.
Group E - Big game on October 5th, Montenegro vs Denmark. Poland would be expected to win in Armenia. Montenegro visit Poland on the last round of fixtures. 2nd could have an unlikely 17 points if Montenegro vs Denmark is a draw and they both lose their final games. 19 is more likely but if one team wins both then 2nd will have 22 points.
Group F - England virtually assured of winning the group (and an early exit from the World cup as is tradition). Scotland face Slovakia and Slovenia - failure to beat Slovakia ends their chances given Slovakia play Malta next at home. Slovenia travel to England. 2nd place to have 18 points minimum (barring a freak result between Slovakia and Malta), 21 points if Slovakia win in Scotland, otherwise Scotland need to beat Slovenia and Slovakia to overtake the Slovaks, giving 20 points.
Group G - No chance of catching 2nd
Group H - Belgium already qualified. Bosnia host Belgium next, then travel to Estonia. Greece face Cyprus away then host Gibraltar. A Cyprus win against Greece might not be enough given Bosnia's final fixture. 2nd place to have possibly 17 points if Belgium win in Bosnia and Greece don't win in Cyprus. Otherwise Greece may get to 19 points or, should Bosnia somehow beat the runaway leaders, 2nd will have 20 points.
Group I - Try quantum physics instead. Unless Iceland and Croatia win their final two games each, 2nd will have a maximum of 20 points. Probably less.
With Serbia winning tonight, it's probable they've won the group. Because of Ireland's loss tonight, we can afford a draw in one of our final two games. In terms of ensuring we're one of the top 8 2nd place teams, 18 points might be enough to get a playoff place, but I think that means relying on too many results going our way. 20 points would almost certainly be enough for a playoff place. To get that we'd need to win in Georgia, which then means Ireland have to win in Cardiff, forcing them to have a go at us.
If we finish 2nd our results from the Moldova games get dismissed as far as the 2nd place table is concerned don't they -so wins against Georgia and Ireland might be key?
Still think we need to win our last two and reach 20 points. In the separate second place play off race we would have 14 points as the Moldova points would then be deducted. Results elsewhere have not gone our way in this latest round.
We will probably need to beat RoI - a draw may be enough for us to finish 2nd but not to make play offs
2 Wins Down and it still looks Scary.
So Bosnia's final game away to Estonia is a day after our group is concluded so they will know exactly what result they need. That seems really fair then.