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Jesus wept I hope I don't find myself stuck in the trenches with some of you
Simple as that, is it? Good or shocking. No middle ground.
I watched a mediocre Sheffield side take City's defence apart on several occasions on Monday night. If their finishing had been anything other than powderpuff, they'd have scored three or four. Yesterday lunchtime, I watched a talented but hopelessly inconsistent Norwich side score three against Villa, one of which was a world-class long-range strike. Sheffield had 14 shots against City, 6 of which were on target. Norwich had 16 shots against Villa, 6 of which were on target.
As I've said before, the margins are very fine. Even I can work that out.
Its inevitable certain people turn up on this messageboard when we have a draw and a loss in our last 2 games.
The point the ex-fan missed is that of consistency. I know stats are all you have but the clear point, given Villa keeping more clean sheets but conceding more goals is that they either play well... or conceded several goals.
We were poor against Sheffield United, sure. I note that you refer to Sheff Utds powderpuff finishing but conveniently ignore the fact it could have been far, far more as every time they attacked they looked like scoring.
Still, citing by comparing single games is a fair approach I guess.
I'd be interested in seeing the shots against / shots on target stats for us and Villa for the entire season.
Not quite. I do have the benefit of watching plenty of matches too.
The goals conceded stats for the top six defences in the Championship this season are as follows:
34 - Cardiff City
36 - Wolves
38 - Derby
39 - Middlesbrough
39 - Millwall
40 - Aston Villa
It should be crystal clear to anyone with any common sense that the margins over 40 or 41 games are very slim, but it's not the stats alone that suggest that. It's the evidence of almost all of the Championship games I've watched this season.
Maybe, but that "evidence" would be subjective. Nobody can realistically claim Terry/Chester are more solid than Bamba/Morrison given Bamba pretty much at the top for blocks / interceptions / tackles. What I'd suspect without seeing the figures are that our concession of possession leads to more attacks against us. That could mean we've higher shots against than Villa do, which is a far more meaningful view of things.
If Villa concede more goals on less shots than that just shows how much better our defence is.
For shots against, our figures are better than Villas, 7.6% against 8.5%.
For shots on target against, Villa are better, 27.2% against 25.1%.
So from base viewing, a team shooting is more likely to score against Villa than us unless it's on target. Villa have had just under 1 more shot on target against per game than we have.
Now, "on target" provides no context - was it a weak shot dribbling to keeper, was it in 6 yard box, penalty area, outside area etc but if you work out the percentage of shots on target against versus shots against there is a bit statistical difference.
28.02% against 34.12% to be precise; basically shows that shots against Villa are far more likely to be shots on target, on target shots having higher chance of being a goal.
So whilst the naive premise of looking at shots alone was incorrect, the final stat of on target shot against percentage shows that it's more difficult of opposition to get shots off that have a higher chance of a goal occurring... which would mean our defence were pretty tight... and tighter than Villas...
Stats can be manipulated to how ever you want them watching villa against Norwich they play a high line which will suit us imo with a front 3 of hoilett Ken and NML we can get in behind with ease
I'd have bet my nuts that you would attempt to use those figures to back up your argument despite suggesting the exact opposite was true only minutes ago. Credit to you, you're good value. That Bill Murray quote springs to mind.
I'll have to leave you to it as I have work to do this afternoon, but for what it's worth I'd also have Morrison and Bamba in my team ahead of Chester and Terry. However, I don't rate Bennett at all (good going forward, often dodgy in defence from what I've seen) and I don't know what to make of Manga as a right back (I prefer Peltier, although he obviously has his limitations). My overall point stands, though - the margins in this division, particularly at the top end of the table, are clearly very fine.
Not at all, I made an assumption - figures disproved that hypothesis instead revealing another better result that namely we're far better at preventing the highest category of shot attempt from occurring.
Bennett has improved defensively but of course that also depends upon what cover he gets from Hoilett. Sometimes good, sometimes bad. Peltier I fully prefer at right back over Manga.
When Villas full back options include Taylor and Hutton, it's hard to see who of their keeper, defenders would get into our side.
https://experimental361.com/2018/04/...ip-8-apr-2018/
I think this best explains where things are right now - Fulham are the top team in the division on form, we're third. Based on stats we are still marginally favourites to go up but we need to embark on another winning run on Tuesday. Win our next 3 and I think we might just have enough to get there...
Millwall 10th? Surprising given their good form but that's stats I guess.
Stats are all well and good but anything can happen. Cairney could suffer an injury, Sessignon could be sent off... Terry could have a mental switch off thinking of Chester's wife allowing Lee Peltier to win the ball and score in the 97th minute...