We need some of the top half teams to drop into the bottom half ASAP!
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The home form we have shown over the last two months has been fantastic, but looking at the current table (as I do a lot (particularly after a win)), of the sides in the bottom half, we only have Watford, Palace and Huddersfield still to come down here.
Ok, some those sides around us haven't looked great,and whose to say we won't turn over a couple of top half sides at home, but we really are going to have to win a few away games in what is now almost the second half of the season if we are to survive.
But being normally a glass half empty sort of person, I'm a lot more hopeful now of survival than I was back in August.
We need some of the top half teams to drop into the bottom half ASAP!
We've also played 2 more at home than away. I think the formula for our survival is to find a way to pick up more points away from home, especially those sides outside top 7/8
When we went down in 2014, we won 4 and drew 2 of the games against the three sides above us, averaging 2.33 points a game. If you split the remaining 16 teams into two groups of 8, we won 1 of 16 matches against the teams finishing 9th-16th (Swansea at home) and 2 against the top 8. We averaged 0.5 points a game against the top 16 in the division.
This season we're averaging 0.53 points against teams in the top 16 and 1.75 against the bottom 4.
We undoubtedly have the tougher run of home fixtures on paper. Far fewer (from two to eight) home games against teams outside the top six.
Positives -
1.We play 4 or 5 of our relegation rivals away from home. Get a draw (like at Hudds) and we are good.
2.They'll take points off eachother and the tighter and more desperate teams get, the more draws you'll see. Great for us. Not good for them.
3.We have a 4 point cushion at present over the bottom three.
4.Remains to be seen how Fulham and Southampton react to the managerial change. We haven't seen the huge bounce from either as things stand.
5.We seem to be very confident at the CCS at present.
We'll need the type of luck we had on the weekend with defensive blunders and refs not giving penalties but hopefully with some new striking options we'll be able to convert some of the clearer opportunities we are having.
Let's say we forget about the home games with Man United, Spurs, Everton, Chelsea and Liverpool (I reckon we'll get something out of at least one of them mind), that still leaves, Huddersfield, Bournemouth, Watford, West Ham and Palace and these are the type of games we have got into the habit of winning lately.
We can beat anyone outside of the top 6 at home, even Everton. It'll be tough but that's the Prem. And if Swansea can beat Liverpool at home, so can we. Or at least a side of that ability, just need to get a large slice of luck. Admittedly we've played a game more at home than a lot of sides but we've got the 10th best home record. We really, really need to start picking up some points away from home though, hopefully we can start this beating a bang out of form Watford on Saturday.
I don't know if tonight's result says more about the relative lack of quality Everton have or highlights the fact that Watford have far more quality than their position suggests.
Having seen Everton against Liverpool , I'd be inclined to think that Everton are a very good side and that Watford must also be half decent if they can come within a minute of beating them at Goodison.
I think Watford will beat us comfortably on the weekend.
To be fair, the Jacks had the advantage of playing in a shitty little stadium, in the back of beyond. The 'big' clubs probably found it hard to get motivated, and who can blame them.
We, on the other hand, have a state of the art stadium, in one of Europe's finest Capital cities.
Conversely, Everton only just beat us 1-0, and were poor. They were there for the taking. Need to judge sides over the course of a season, not just in isolation. Watford have good players but they've drawn with Southampton and lost to Newcastle recently. They're hardly Barcelona and we really have to start picking up some points away from home. Just after a clean sheet and a win, don't see a better time than now to give it a go.