Coronavirus update - NO MORE RESTRICTIONS

[Eric Cartman]

So they are not following the science then?

Either they were making the science fit the policy or we were following the wrong strategy and should be trying to figure out why we were out of step with a lot of the world.

[Taunton Blue Genie]

Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance offer advice. Government makes policy decisions. Just because Whitty and Vallance are wheeled out night after night to justify the decisions does not mean that the government have 100% followed their advice when making policy.

The ideologues in this thread would scare the scientific community, the scientific process is about learning and making necessary adjustments. The only thing that makes me retain my faith in this whole debacle is that when the evidence was overwhelming that we were following the wrong strategy we changed course. The question should be, 'why had other countries made that adjustment beforehand?' and we should be asking it and learning from it. Science shouldn't be used as a shield for bad policy decisions that may have cost lives.

Good post. For me, it's too early to be dogmatic about some aspects of this crisis. A lot has yet to be learned by all and sundry.

[rudy gestede]

The guy who says no one has died of coronavirus is now praising facts

You couldn’t make it up

[the other bob wilson]

Either they were making the science fit the policy or we were following the wrong strategy and should be trying to figure out why we were out of step with a lot of the world.

You've captured what I think very succinctly there. I don't see the point of knocking the Government just because they are Conservatives, things are more serious than that, but, you only have to look at how Johnson is being covered by what you normally call supporters of him, and by what's being said overseas, to see that he, and his Government, has blundered from time to time.


I

[Gofer Blue]

What ever you think about Boris Johnson and HM Government in general about their response to the COVID outbreak, be honest, who would want to be in their shoes?

[Hilts]

What ever you think about Boris Johnson and HM Government in general about their response to the COVID outbreak, be honest, who would want to be in their shoes?

Maybe those on the frontline including those whose pay is a tiny fraction of what Johnson earns and some not even having the correct protection.

I havent seen Cummings crying his eyes out with stress. Or them crammed on to a tube carriage as its their only way to get to work.

I wondet if Johnson , Cummings and co would swap their pay and conditions with say a NHS nurse commuting into London

[surge]

Do the WHO always get it right ? Why should we blindly follow what they say when our own scientists and medical officers are saying something different ? You appear to be letting your political bias dictate your opinions on this matter

Considering the government decided to discard it's science and follow something much closer to the WHO's advice I think in this instance it's a fair shout they were right.

[Divine Wright]

Maybe those on the frontline including those whose pay is a tiny fraction of what Johnson earns and some not even having the correct protection.

I havent seen Cummings crying his eyes out with stress. Or them crammed on to a tube carriage as its their only way to get to work.

I wondet if Johnson , Cummings and co would swap their pay and conditions with say a NHS nurse commuting into London

Politicians in S.Korea have taken a pay cut in order to free up money for the population.

That greedy toff kent will only ever do something similar if he feels it’ll improve his rep in some way.

[Dorcus]

What ever you think about Boris Johnson and HM Government in general about their response to the COVID outbreak, be honest, who would want to be in their shoes?

Quite a lot of people I imagine. Remember Boris and his pals will be totally protected from the ravages of the virus and, even if they get things horribly wrong, bar an Apocalyptic ending, they will still be protected by their wealth.

[Eric Cartman]

I will be interested to see what comes out officially about the self-employed today. I don't think the furloughed worker scheme stands up to scrutiny and the business loans scheme is a complete shambles with businesses being told that after the first year they will be paying 12% interest a year (despite the loans being effectively 80% guaranteed by the government).

I know it is not in fashion to criticise the government (or especially Rishi) now but this ideological attachment to trickle down economics and trusting business with the family silver is clearly counter-productive in a situation like this. Businesses and Banks have one eye on the coming recession and will do everything they can to use any leeway they are given by the government to feather their own nest. If the idea was that we help individuals then this is a disaster waiting to happen.

Regarding the furloughed workers scheme.

Unless I have read this wrong, if somebody was layed off last year we pay them universal credit (i.e. pittence). If they are at risk of being layed off this year we pay them up to 2,500 a month.

The mental gymnastics that some people must be going through to simultaneously justify a benefits system that gives people even less money than it does dignity, whilst at the same time themselves claiming 80% of their healthy salary from the taxpayer whilst sitting on their arses must be giving them nosebleeds.

[Croesy Blue]

I will be interested to see what comes out officially about the self-employed today. I don't think the furloughed worker scheme stands up to scrutiny and the business loans scheme is a complete shambles with businesses being told that after the first year they will be paying 12% interest a year (despite the loans being effectively 80% guaranteed by the government).

I know it is not in fashion to criticise the government (or especially Rishi) now but this ideological attachment to trickle down economics and trusting business with the family silver is clearly counter-productive in a situation like this. Businesses and Banks have one eye on the coming recession and will do everything they can to use any leeway they are given by the government to feather their own nest. If the idea was that we help individuals then this is a disaster waiting to happen.

Regarding the furloughed workers scheme.

Unless I have read this wrong, if somebody was layed off last year we pay them universal credit (i.e. pittence). If they are at risk of being layed off this year we pay them up to 2,500 a month.

The mental gymnastics that some people must be going through to simultaneously justify a benefits system that gives people even less money than it does dignity, whilst at the same time themselves claiming 80% of their healthy salary from the taxpayer whilst sitting on their arses must be giving them nosebleeds.

I could read these posts all day

[tell it like it is]

Maybe those on the frontline including those whose pay is a tiny fraction of what Johnson earns and some not even having the correct protection.

I havent seen Cummings crying his eyes out with stress. Or them crammed on to a tube carriage as its their only way to get to work.

I wondet if Johnson , Cummings and co would swap their pay and conditions with say a NHS nurse commuting into London

Remind us who cut tube services... I'm sure you can think of the name and the party they belong to if you try.

[Dorcus]

I will be interested to see what comes out officially about the self-employed today. I don't think the furloughed worker scheme stands up to scrutiny and the business loans scheme is a complete shambles with businesses being told that after the first year they will be paying 12% interest a year (despite the loans being effectively 80% guaranteed by the government).

I know it is not in fashion to criticise the government (or especially Rishi) now but this ideological attachment to trickle down economics and trusting business with the family silver is clearly counter-productive in a situation like this. Businesses and Banks have one eye on the coming recession and will do everything they can to use any leeway they are given by the government to feather their own nest. If the idea was that we help individuals then this is a disaster waiting to happen.

Regarding the furloughed workers scheme.

Unless I have read this wrong, if somebody was layed off last year we pay them universal credit (i.e. pittence). If they are at risk of being layed off this year we pay them up to 2,500 a month.

The mental gymnastics that some people must be going through to simultaneously justify a benefits system that gives people even less money than it does dignity, whilst at the same time themselves claiming 80% of their healthy salary from the taxpayer whilst sitting on their arses must be giving them nosebleeds.

Brilliant post Eric 👍

[Croesy Blue]

Remind us who cut tube services... I'm sure you can think of the name and the party they belong to if you try.

You could argue that both ways. They were cut to protect workers, they are still rammed because the government have said non essential workers can still work if they can't work from home.

[Croesy Blue]

The excel centre in London being turned into a hospital is pretty worrying.

Enough room for 4k beds, and 2 morgues. They must be expecting the shit to hit the fan soon.

[tell it like it is]

You could argue that both ways. They were cut to protect workers, they are still rammed because the government have said non essential workers can still work if they can't work from home.

Cut because Khan knew most tube drivers would miraculously self-isolate. Kinda like striking when big football games are on.

Your point still doesn't make sense, social distancing even if non essential workers were banned from tube travel would be far more effective with more carriages due to far more space.

[Croesy Blue]

Cut because Khan knew most tube drivers would miraculously self-isolate. Kinda like striking when big football games are on.

Your point still doesn't make sense, social distancing even if non essential workers were banned from tube travel would be far more effective with more carriages due to far more space.

I'm not defending anyone. I'm saying there is a reason for both sides. They cut services so they could run on limited staff. Construction work still going on means trains are going to be packed.

Either you keep trains running and have more tube staff or you limit the service and only have essential workers go to work.

[the other bob wilson]

Concerning that Wales now has more COVID 19 deaths than Scotland when you think of their relative populations - perhaps this, taken from the Guardian today, partially explains it?

"The proximity of south-east Wales to the English border is believed to be one of the reasons behind a cluster of Covid-19 cases there, the Welsh chief medical officer has said.

Frank Atherton added that there may be more cases in the area because more testing has been done there. He said: “As the epidemic unfolds, there will be areas that will flare up and calm down.”

Atherton was responding to a warning by Dr Sarah Aitken, the director of public health at the Aneurin Bevan University Health Board.

In Gwent, we are seeing a rapidly rising increase in the number of cases of coronavirus in all our communities and a daily increase in the number of people being admitted to hospital and the number of people dying from the virus.

The pattern we are seeing in Gwent is the same pattern as was seen in Italy, where their healthcare system is now overwhelmed.

There have been 309 cases in the board’s area compared with 628 for the whole of Wales.

Asked about Aitken’s warning at a Welsh government press conference on Thursday morning, Atherton said: “It is closer to England. The hot spot in the UK is around London and so being on the border with England is an issue. The second reason is there has been a lot more testing in that health board. The fact that we have been doing more testing has led to an increase in the number of cases identified.

The virus is circulating in all parts of Wales. At the moment it may be circulating to a higher degree in south Wales but that may change over time.”

[tell it like it is]

Maybe, maybe not.

Gwent seems to be an outlier for whatever reason.

[Wales-Bales]

UK has enough intensive care units for coronavirus, expert predicts

The UK should now be able to cope with the spread of the covid-19 virus, according to one of the epidemiologists advising the government.

Neil Ferguson at Imperial College London gave evidence today to the UK’s parliamentary select committee on science and technology as part of an inquiry into the nation’s response to the coronavirus outbreak.

He said that expected increases in National Health Service capacity and ongoing restrictions to people’s movements make him “reasonably confident” the health service can cope when the predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in two or three weeks. UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower.

https://www.newscientist.com/article...pert-predicts/

[dml1954]

Considering the government decided to discard it's science and follow something much closer to the WHO's advice I think in this instance it's a fair shout they were right.

But you have been criticising the Government for not following WHO advice. Now you say they are. Also the chief medical officer has made it quite clear that the Government is following his departments advice. The fact that our situation is considerably better than in Italy, Spain and a number of other countries, indicates to me that by and large they are getting it right. There is no precedent or template for what is happening.

[Croesy Blue]

UK has enough intensive care units for coronavirus, expert predicts

The UK should now be able to cope with the spread of the covid-19 virus, according to one of the epidemiologists advising the government.

Neil Ferguson at Imperial College London gave evidence today to the UK’s parliamentary select committee on science and technology as part of an inquiry into the nation’s response to the coronavirus outbreak.

He said that expected increases in National Health Service capacity and ongoing restrictions to people’s movements make him “reasonably confident” the health service can cope when the predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in two or three weeks. UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower.

https://www.newscientist.com/article...pert-predicts/

Yeah as said earlier they’ve changed some huge buildings into make shift hospitals, my mate is in the army reserves and has been called in for next week to help with the hospitals.

Hope it is under 20k deaths, that still seems quite a lot.

[Croesy Blue]

But you have been criticising the Government for not following WHO advice. Now you say they are. Also the chief medical officer has made it quite clear that the Government is following his departments advice. The fact that our situation is considerably better than in Italy, Spain and a number of other countries, indicates to me that by and large they are getting it right. There is no precedent or template for what is happening.

What makes you think our situation is better?

[Wales-Bales]

Yeah as said earlier they’ve changed some huge buildings into make shift hospitals, my mate is in the army reserves and has been called in for next week to help with the hospitals.

Hope it is under 20k deaths, that still seems quite a lot.

5,700 quoted here. Furthermore, Dr Anthony Fauci is speculating the death rate could be 0.1% - the same as pandemic flu.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

Here is the latest research on deaths from #coronavirus both in the UK and elsewhere. This is by statisticians including @TomPike00075908 of @imperialcollege who I have spoken to. The key figures are circled. UK deaths estimated to TOTAL 5,700. Peak day will be April 5th with 260 pic.twitter.com/4OwzLLSOkM

— Jeremy Vine (@theJeremyVine) March 26, 2020

[Baloo]

5,700 quoted here. Furthermore, Dr Anthony Fauci is speculating the death rate could be 0.1% - the same as pandemic flu.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

Here is the latest research on deaths from #coronavirus both in the UK and elsewhere. This is by statisticians including @TomPike00075908 of @imperialcollege who I have spoken to. The key figures are circled. UK deaths estimated to TOTAL 5,700. Peak day will be April 5th with 260 pic.twitter.com/4OwzLLSOkM

— Jeremy Vine (@theJeremyVine) March 26, 2020

Pretty sloppy tbh to publish that data with a couple of typos in it. Germany typo acknowledged. Either the Netherlands peak data is also a typo or is already shown to be way out. Underlying modelling might be sound but hard for people to feel confident in these models with basic errors.