Quote Originally Posted by the other bob wilson View Post
I think this thread is showing the dangers of us arriving at judgements on a subject that, let's face it, nearly all of us knew buggar all about a couple of months ago. That's why I often qualify what I say with the words "I may be wrong here". And I'll do so again here.

From what I can gather, the scientific community have been caught on the hop somewhat because it was thought that the next pandemic would be a variant of the flu, hence the apparent lack of progress on the vaccines for corona viruses - they haven't been essential in the past. I'd also add a personal view here in that the fact that it is relatively rich western countries that are being worst affected will concentrate minds more than if it were the usual suspects so to speak and so I would not be surprised at all to see a vaccine available before some of the predictions in this thread.

I know there are those who, maybe justifiably, are wary of Chinese figures, but they probably are the best things we can go on for now and there seems little in them so far to suggest that you can catch the virus again after having it- I say that having also read something by an expert in the field who said that there are always a very small percentage of people who have a second bout of any pandemic virus.

Returning to my first point, the fact that so little work was being done on finding vaccines for corona viruses until recently suggests that the likelihood of Covid 21., 22, 24 etc is low historically doesn't it? Again though, I qualify all of the above by adding that they are the opinions of someone who is far, far from a specialist in this field.
Well, the likelihood of a Covid-19 was also low. But, here we are. I would like to think that we would be better prepared for any subsequent one but, until we resolve the current issue globally, we won't be.

A recent study in China of 262 recovered sufferers found that 38 tested positive for Covid-19 after being discharged. That doesn't mean reinfection, but it could mean reinfection. It could also be that there are traces of the virus after recovery, or it could mean that there were problems with the first test.

So, the question of immunity hasn't been answered. I have seen estimates as low as few months to as high as a few years. That is why there is, in my opinion, a possibility of further waves of this going on for a few years (based on the premise that a vaccine is difficult to produce). I see as much evidence for this scenario as there is evidence this is a one wave pandemic.

It's also not helpful that people walk around thinking they have had it and are therefore immune to it. Firstly, these people have never been tested so they are assuming they've had it. Secondly, they are assuming that they are now immune. Thirdly, they are assuming that they can no longer be a transmitter of the disease. Their assumptions may well be correct, but if they are not correct they are putting themselves in danger. I wouldn't want to get Covid-19 at all, let alone a few weeks after a nasty flu infection.