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Ofcom investigating this broadcastif any of you recall what started this thread before it turned into a slanging match
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52228046
I watched an excellent documentary from 2006 earlier this evening. It was called The Horizon Guide to Pandemic. You can probably find it on the BBC iPlayer. The last ten minutes were especially illuminating.
Based on the 2003 outbreak of Bird Flu, scientists produced a hypothetical model of how a pandemic would develop if H5N1 mutated and was able to be transferred from human to human, much as Covid-19 is being transferred now. They predicted that, if left unchecked, the virus would reach its peak at around three months, by which time the majority of the population of the globe would have been infected to one degree or another.
Professor John Oxford said: "140 people have died from H5N1 in a population of 6 billion. People say to me that's not many. My answer to them is to go back to 1917. Around 140 people died that year from Spanish Flu. Within 12 months it had exploded. That's a warning there. We cannot ignore that a virus has done this in the past. We simply cannot."
I guess the scientists and the TV producers who worked on that programme back in 2006 were simply laying the groundwork for the great Cornovirus hoax of 2020. Under the circumstances, I'm surprised David Icke wasn't all over it at the time.
As a matter of interest, why do you think I have abandoned all sense of proportion? What have I said or done that has given you that impression?
31 March 2020
Personally, I view this Covid outbreak as akin to a bad winter influenza epidemic. In this case we have had 8000 deaths this last year in the ‘at risk’ groups viz over 65% people with heart disease etc. I do not feel this current Covid will exceed this number. We are suffering from a media epidemic!
Professor John Oxford.
You have to hand it to him, he's completely off his trolley, but he's got game.
And? So a scientist has been proven right once and wrong once - that's still better than being a smug "know it all" who, in fact, is being proved wrong at every turn on Covid 19 and is having to desperately keep moving the goalposts in their arguments all of the time in a vain attempt to try and maintain the credibility they have long since lost.
You’ve left the context out again, he says:
So it will be like a very bad flu epidemic if we have a 90% compliance to social distancing.But a second piece of good news is that the Chinese are lifting their social distancing and the country is slowly getting back to normal. At the same time, an Australian Mathematical model paper is published which clearly predicts that compliance with “social distancing” must be 80 or 90% otherwise it will not work. My friend Peter Doherty in Australia has reminded everyone that the positive effects of this intervention similar to which we are trying to do here) will take 2 weeks to filter through to fewer deaths etc, so do not expect instant results! Incidentally Peter has ‘form’ because of his Nobel Prize! There must be 80-90% compliance.
More young people are showing serious clinical problems during infections particularly if diabetic and overweight. So, the problems are not confined to the grandparents who seem to be behaving themselves at least as regards social distancing! Incidentally we now have 10 grandchildren including Juliette’s latest a couple of weeks ago. Some of you may remember that Juliette worked for a while with Anthony and the medical team at the hotel quarantine in East London probably 10 years ago.
Personally, I would say the best advice is to spend less time watching TV news which is sensational and not very good. Personally, I view this Covid outbreak as akin to a bad winter influenza epidemic. In this case we have had 8000 deaths this last year in the ‘at risk’ groups viz over 65% people with heart disease etc. I do not feel this current Covid will exceed this number. We are suffering from a media epidemic!
Also he says we had 8000 deaths last year in the at risk groups. We’ve basically had that in a month from covid.
And still who would think 2 flu epidemics in a year is good, that’s an extra few thousand deaths even with social distancing.
Pandemic Paradox #1: If rigorous social distancing works exactly as intended, successfully reducing the spread of contagion and death, the fools who resisted it will declare that they were right all along.
— Sam Harris (@SamHarrisOrg) April 10, 2020
It shows that somebody who was correct in the spread of such a pandemic transmitted from person to person failed to recognise a pandemic transmitted from person to person, misreading all evidence just two short weeks ago.
Doesn't invalidate his 2006 comments that most people would agree with, just shows he either made a gross mistake in March or wants to underplay it for some strange reason.
Using the 2020 comments to downplay the pandemic would be silly.
I wouldn't say it's wrong to say we're suffering from a pandemic and a media epidemic of poor information.
We've Piers Morgan ranting( when not targetting a woman of colour ), Peston making everything about him ( and acting the victim when deputy CMO puts him in his place. Predictions of doom and gloom etc.