Reply With QuoteWho is lobbying for pubs to remain closed?Originally Posted by xsnaggle
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No-one has denied that such people exist. What we have questioned is the reasoning behind your assertion that such people have a disproportionate amount of power in Wales.
It is odd that you think a gym is not needed to exercise. In fact, a gym is just as essential in a community context. It is a social setting too.
Do you think that the virus is less likely to be transmitted in a pub setting than it is in a gym (for example)?
Who is lobbying for pubs to remain closed?
How? If pubs never open again?
The base rate would be the rate at which the sub population (i.e. age, gender, ethnicity, social situation, exposure, risk factor). So, you know how likely they are to have it before the test, now we do the test and then compare the figures. It is a critical piece of evidence.
But, clinical knowledge will always trump a test. So, if someone tests negative but the evidence is that they have all the symptoms of covid 19, then the clinical interpretation of those symptoms will trump the results of tests. Which is, I think, what you were saying earlier (about a doctor being more accurate than a test).
But, with regards to saying the test is 30% inaccurate, like I say, there are reasons that I don't readily accept that. I am not rejecting it completely, but there is a critical piece of evidence missing, and that is the base rate. The base rate will never be 0% or 100% and it will differ between sub populations (e.g. Asian women working in care homes have a base rate (known infection rate) of 32%). The issue we have here is that we do not know the actual value of the base rate because of asymptomatic cases. Also, since tests are not being done on everyone, but only on suspected cases, this leads to more false negatives.
In the same way, if they were testing solely the people who do not have the virus, we would get more false positives.
xsnaggle, can you explain the UK timeline for opening pubs please? Can you explain how that timeline implies that pubs will open in England before they open in Wales?
Infection rate increasing
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52677194
I'm sure the "go to work, but don't go on public transport, unless you can't get there any other way. You could walk, maybe, but yes at least you can meet your friends but in an outdoor setting, but only when the wind is North Westerly" message will make things better.
When has Drakeford mentioned 5 points to occur which now all have.?
Any links?
"As the figures are based on patients ending up in hospital, they actually give a sense of the R-number from around three weeks ago. "
Seems so. 3 weeks behind. So the effect of stay alert wont be know for a while.
But weren't their samples weighted ?, why do they think their samples weren't weighted ?
The UK relied heavily on medical modellers and not enough on virologists was a common criticism of our lot, our lot seem to have got it wrong at every turn but the one area they should have some idea on was modelling, are you saying the UK modellers had no idea how to mathematically do their calculations ?
Yes they can make the wrong assumptions, yes they might not fully understand the characteristics of this new virus and if you put the wrong information into a computer you get wrong information out, no doubt that happened, but are you saying they don't know how to go about working it out statistically and mathematically (if they had put the correct info in) ?
They just said on the news that the R rate is based on figures from over a week ago, so if the rate goes up to 1 tomorrow it is a reflection of then not today. God knows how they will explain that when people start panicking.
This is no longer 1905, are you really suggesting that in a modern cosmopolitan city like Cardiff that Welsh nonconformists are ruling the roost ?, are chapels even a thing in Cardiff these days ?
Why do you say its only people in Cardiff? And sadly as I said it isn't just overly religious people but others who are just bred plain miserable lol
Just read an article that said the U of Cambridge estimate that the rise in R rate lags 3 weeks behind and that the rise is due to Greater testing in Care homes whilst the number is dropping in the general community, which gives the government more room for manouvre.
Surely with the stay alert slogan and the easing of lockdown they must be aware that the up to date figure is better and the r rate is going down.?
Ah just seen this.
I'm not saying anything of the sort, I'm surprised you say it's such a big thing in 2020, you were talking about Llandaff and isn't that in Cardiff ?, are you suggesting it's a Wales thing ? or a UK thing ? or even further afield ?,
I have experienced it more in Wales than in England. Yes Llandaff is in Cardiff. It is a City. It had a Cathedral before Cardiff was a town.
I experienced a similar kind of thing in northern Germany in certain areas too.
The natural R rate of the virus is between 2 and 3. It will take significant effort to keep it below 1. It will take no effort to see it above 1, and heading above 2.
What's you point beside showing your innate higher intellect?
We don't yet know how many people have contracted covid-19 without symptoms. The base rate needs to be an accurate figure.
Example.
x% of women aged 44-49 in South East Asia suffer from breast cancer. During testing of women aged 44-49 in South East Asia, the twice that percentage of women tested positive for breast cancer using a brand new method. Result - women are retested with the old method. First tests are found to have a significant number of false positives. Accuracy of test is calculated not just on false positives, but also based on that base rate.
The difference is, we know the base rate of women with cancer aged 44-49 in South East Asia. We don't know how many people have contracted covid. The other difference is that women are tested for breast cancer regardless of an assumption that they have it or not. In the main, testing of covid is done on people displaying symptoms.
My point is that it has taken 8 weeks of monumental efforts to get the R rate down below 1. Interestingly, the subject of a lag wasn't mentioned when the rate was 0.5-0.9! It was offered as definitive proof of us coming out of the peak, and giving the message of "stay alert".
Now, about these pubs....
Q then is, why are they not telling us the "up to date" figure, and giving us the "out of date" figure?
I'm afraid you don't get it, you haven't answered my questions.
Are you saying that these medical modellers and statisticians across the World don't know how to weight samples ?
What would they weight the samples on? The key piece of missing data is the number of people who have had covid-19.
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