Coronavirus update - NO MORE RESTRICTIONS

[Baloo]

I do agree .

The other worthless reported matter are graphs by country, it's never going to match whilst countries report differently , they a have different links to the outside world , some have ageing communities, different ethnicities, obesity, diabetics , Immne systems , reporting of covid on death certs are different , some countries have less care homes , some countries are less dense than ours , etc etc .

Does basing comparisons on excess deaths help to deal with these variables as suggested by the government?

[The Lone Gunman]

I think most people are happy with it as a key indicator of where we are......

Although the 'R' number hasn't exactly been a regular topic of conversation with the people I've been encountering during the last ten weeks, when it has been discussed (admittedly only on a couple of occasions with a small group of people) the verdict has been unanimous - confusing, don't really get it, etc.

Today, England’s deputy chief medical officer said live on TV: "This virus has a natural R number of 3. One case will infect three more people."

That'll do for me and, I suspect, most others.

[lisvaneblue]

Although the 'R' number hasn't exactly been a regular topic of conversation with the people I've been encountering during the last ten weeks, when it has been discussed (admittedly only on a couple of occasions with a small group of people) the verdict has been unanimous - confusing, don't really get it, etc.

Today, England’s deputy chief medical officer said live on TV: "This virus has a natural R number of 3. One case will infect three more people."

That'll do for me and, I suspect, most others.

It’s a virus looking for hosts, and unchallenged it’ll move from one host to three others, mainly through close human to human contact. In relatively few moves it can spread rapidly 1 infects 3, 3-9, 9-27, 27-54 etc

By reducing human to human contact, plus good hygiene we reduce the chance of it finding hosts, to the degree that one person with virus spreads it, on average, to less than one person, so eventually it can’t find hosts and disappears. The balance easing lockdown is to ensure that we keep the chances of it infecting people under control...ie R less than 1

[lisvaneblue]

It’s a virus looking for hosts, and unchallenged it’ll move from one host to three others, mainly through close human to human contact. In relatively few moves it can spread rapidly 1 infects 3, 3-9, 9-27, 27-54 etc

By reducing human to human contact, plus good hygiene we reduce the chance of it finding hosts, to the degree that one person with virus spreads it, on average, to less than one person, so eventually it can’t find hosts and disappears. The balance easing lockdown is to ensure that we keep the chances of it infecting people under control...ie R less than 1

Sorry about my maths...27 -81.....

[Taunton Blue Genie]

It's fascinating in that the virus, like all living organisms (apart from Sludge Factory) lives in order to reproduce but it either kills its hosts or finds that its hosts survives the attack of the virus.....

[CCFCC3PO]

It's fascinating in that the virus, like all living organisms (apart from Sludge Factory) lives in order to reproduce but it either kills its hosts or finds that its hosts survives the attack of the virus.....

Just like humans with the planet Earth.

[CCFCC3PO]

It’s a virus looking for hosts, and unchallenged it’ll move from one host to three others, mainly through close human to human contact. In relatively few moves it can spread rapidly 1 infects 3, 3-9, 9-27, 27-54 etc

By reducing human to human contact, plus good hygiene we reduce the chance of it finding hosts, to the degree that one person with virus spreads it, on average, to less than one person, so eventually it can’t find hosts and disappears. The balance easing lockdown is to ensure that we keep the chances of it infecting people under control...ie R less than 1

On average. There is nothing to prevent one person (with no symptoms) infecting 20 others.

[MOZZER2]

a cardiff city member of staff tests positive

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52863552

[CCFCC3PO]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-52864454

[delmbox]

On average. There is nothing to prevent one person (with no symptoms) infecting 20 others.

No but by the same token a person could have it and not spread it at all due to good hand hygiene and social distancing practices, hence the average balancing out

[Baloo]

I do understand the concept (at least to a degree), but I think it's something the scientists, medical experts and politicians should have kept to themselves rather than make a key factor in their public discussions about the pandemic. I don't think it's helped at all. Indeed, I think it's not only confused the issue but it may have even given some people a false sense of security.

If they had said at the outset that if you have this virus you are likely to infect at least three more people and simply left it at that, I think the public would have understood it and the message would have been far more effective. However, by talking about getting the 'R' number down, saying stuff like 'the R is now between 0.5 and 0.8,' and displaying graphics claiming that one infected person is now infecting just 0.6 others, they've served only to complicate the issue.

What’s happened to the Covid Alert System? As I thought this was the public guide as to when restrictions would be relaxed as it combined ‘R’ with number of cases.

There was a bit of fanfare that we were progressing towards level 3. It was presented daily at one stage but has disappeared as far as I can tell since 22nd May.

[The Lone Gunman]

No but by the same token a person could have it and not spread it at all due to good hand hygiene and social distancing practices, hence the average balancing out

Let's be honest, the 'R' number is pure guesswork anyway, sin't it? How could it be anything else if you can have the virus and not even know about it?

Preston striker Jayden Stockley has apparently tested positive. He's apparently asymptomatic and feeling no ill effect, and said: "It came as a complete shock. I got a call from the doctor when I came back from training. I felt brilliant, put a good session in and his number came up. We were aware we would get a call if our test was positive and I was thinking 'no, surely not', but he told me and it was a surreal moment."

[The Lone Gunman]

What’s happened to the Covid Alert System? As I thought this was the public guide as to when restrictions would be relaxed as it combined ‘R’ with number of cases.

There was a bit of fanfare that we were progressing towards level 3. It was presented daily at one stage but has disappeared as far as I can tell since 22nd May.

I think Boris & Co have just about given up on the pretense that they're following the science. They're just letting things gradually return to normal and to be honest I don't think they've got much option to do otherwise given the hopeless mess they've made of the situation since the outset.

[A Quiet Monkfish]

In his head.

There’s a saying north of Taffs Well for this sort of thinking “as dull as dogshit.”

I’d happily be proven wrong about Quiet Monkfish information though.

It was a scientist writing in the Telegraph. Also a couple of other articles I've read along similar lines, but can't find them. Here's this from the Govt. own site :

R is estimated by a range of independent modelling groups based in universities and Public Health England (PHE). The modelling groups present their individual R estimates to the Science Pandemic Influenza Modelling group (SPI-M) - a subgroup of SAGE - for discussion. Attendees compare the different estimates of R and SPI- M collectively agrees a range which R is very likely to be within.


It's not the point I'm making, but it confirms that a number of organizations come up with what they think is the 'R' number and the take an average. So there may be a figure of 0.3 out there, there may be a figure of 0.1 out there. All very scientific but like all the cr*p we're having to take it's a combination of opinion, politics, with a smattering of hard evidence..

[the other bob wilson]

Here's a couple of articles from May claiming the r rate is probably as low outside hospitals and care homes as you suggest;-

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...laims-11985343

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...ostly-affects/

One is from an individual who it appears has some expertise on the subject and the other is a "government source" - I've always been cynical about quotes from Government sources, a feeling that has increased an awful lot over the last couple of months.

[delmbox]

I don't quite understand. England are currently on level 4 of the Covid alert system but they've now announced that the vulnerable people who've been shielding can leave the house on Monday. So how have they jumped from level 4 to level 1 overnight?

levels.jpg

It feels a bit like let's see what happens and hope for the best over the bridge at the moment, I'm glad we're letting them plough the road

[blue matt]

I don't quite understand. England are currently on level 4 of the Covid alert system but they've now announced that the vulnerable people who've been shielding can leave the house on Monday. So how have they jumped from level 4 to level 1 overnight?

levels.jpg

It feels a bit like let's see what happens and hope for the best over the bridge at the moment, I'm glad we're letting them plough the road

its mental, inside 2 weeks we are almost back to normally life down here, only need pubs and hair salons open and its done

[CCFCC3PO]

its mental, inside 2 weeks we are almost back to normally life down here, only need pubs and hair salons open and its done

Just wash your hands, it'll be ok then.

[xsnaggle]

I just read that Tim Matthews the man who reported the second sighting of Dominic Cummins in Co Durham had admitted he was lying and had not seen him. He said he did it is "A Joke". Also the retired teacher who reported him to the Police broke the rules himself when he drove 250 miles to collect his daughter who was self isolating in Berkshire, but he didn't declare it until his daughter was suddenly seen at his home and he had to admit it.
Apparently the thing was orchestrated by Baroness Armstrong, a very pro remain anti-brexit supporter who wanted to get back at Cummins for winning the exit referendum.
It also seems that Jeremy Hunt is one of the people briefing against the PM after he lost out in the race to be the New leader of the party.
And in other news MP Rosie Duffield had admitted she breached lock-down rules by visiting her 'Married Lover'.
All these people are as bad as each other.

[xsnaggle]

Any word from people ITK about what city are going to do about their games if the restrictions are lifted by the Welsh Government?
And if the travel to use a ground in England will the police stop and find them for making an unnecessary journey more than 5 miles from home are will they be classed as going to work?

[Croesy Blue]

I don’t see how that changes much, his own statement was what was being debated anyway. They are all as bad as each other but that doesn’t make any of them less wrong.

[xsnaggle]

I don’t see how that changes much, his own statement was what was being debated anyway. They are all as bad as each other but that doesn’t make any of them less wrong.

I agree 100% but it does make one doubt more and more anything that is reported in the media.
I have said for a long time that when the media put up x number of 'ordinary' people that tends to show that the public is for or against a thing it should be obvious that if they held a different view and didn't agree with the argument that particular media outlet was making they wouldn't be included in the interview. not always but generally the point holds.

That aside it just demonstrates that you can't trust any of them.

[Eric Cartman]

I don't quite understand. England are currently on level 4 of the Covid alert system but they've now announced that the vulnerable people who've been shielding can leave the house on Monday. So how have they jumped from level 4 to level 1 overnight?

levels.jpg

It feels a bit like let's see what happens and hope for the best over the bridge at the moment, I'm glad we're letting them plough the road

They have no idea what they are doing. The scientific community will continue to peel off one by to distance themselves from the decisions being made by the cabinet. The cabinet will continue to fully implicate sage in every announcement, something has to give.

[Croesy Blue]

Id be very shocked if we didn’t get a second peak in England, things had to be relaxed but it all seems a bit hit and hope atm.

[goats]

They have no idea what they are doing. The scientific community will continue to peel off one by to distance themselves from the decisions being made by the cabinet. The cabinet will continue to fully implicate sage in every announcement, something has to give.

It’s going to 3 isn’t it? Where can the vulnerable go anyway? Just out the front door? Wow they are lucky hey