Originally Posted by
Eric the Half a Bee
6 games to go and we're in the playoffs. This might be a bit unexpected but nevertheless we're holding on. I make it this will be the 9th season we've appeared in the playoff positions, excluding the two automatic promotion seasons. I think that demonstrates we're among the top teams in this division and can consider ourselves quite a big name now at this level.
We've got 61 points. That's the joint lowest for any team in 6th place at this stage of the season. In fact, it's the second worst record of any team in 6th in terms of wins and goal difference. I think this demonstrates the competitive nature of the division this season. Leeds, on top with 75 points, also have the 2nd worst record of any division leader at this point in 2 decades.
What of the other 3 sides that had 61 points after 40 games? Brighton had 61 points and finished 4th in 2012/13 with 75 points. Leicester finished 5th with 76 points in 2009/10 (before losing to us on penalties). Wolves missed out on the playoffs in 2007/8.
With relatively few games remaining, working out the number of points that teams finishing 6th get is a waste of time. I think a better option is to consider how many points the team in 6th has after 40 games and then how many the team in 6th has at the end of the season. For example, last season Aston Villa had 63 points in 6th place after 40 games. Derby finished 6th with 74 points, so the 6th positioned side gained 11 points over the last 6 games.
The average number of points gained by 6th place is 9.75. That surprised me a little. However, in 2016/17, 6th place had 66 points after 40 games and 80 points at the end of the season as all the sides went on, and needed, excellent runs of form. The season before saw the opposite. 6th place had 67 points after 40 games and only 74 points by the end. Sheffield Wednesday managed just 6 points from 6 games but still managed a top 6 place.
It's worth noting that in the seasons where the points tallies are comparatively low, teams tend to win less points in the battle to get in the playoffs. In the 3 seasons where the team in 6th had 61 points, 70 points was enough for a playoff spot. I suspect the same to be true this season, where the top clubs have a lot of games against each other.
One quirk that I spotted is that only 1 team in 6th place over the last 20 years has finished 6th!
In 20 seasons, 15 teams in the playoffs at this stage have dropped out. Never before has a side in 3rd missed out. Only once has a side in 4th missed out (Preston in 2006/07). Of sides in 5th and 6th there's an even split - 7 in each position has finished outside the playoffs. On that stat alone, we have a roughly two thirds chance of finishing in the playoffs.
No side below 8th has gatecrashed the playoff party. Another very curious quirk is that whenever the teams in 5th or 6th miss out, they end up being replaced (in all bar one occasion) by the team in 7th or 8th respectively. Preston were 7th, we were 5th in 2008/09. We were 8th and Brighton were 6th in 2011/12. I should point out at this point that I have drawn up tables where all the top sides have played 40 games, so that might not always match a league table on a specific date (teams end up with games in hand) but as all teams in the division have played 40 games this season, this had to be the correct way of calculating things. This quirk leads to the horror of all horrors in that, if we did miss out, statistically at least, the side in 8th would have the best chance of overtaking us. I don't need to say any more!!
In short, 70 points should be enough for a top 6 finish and we've got more chance of finishing there than not.
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