So, a little thread on the challenges we face in #Brexit Round 9 and Boris’ backfiring IM Bill. Despite (or perhaps, because of) the collapse in trust due to the IM Bill, a deal between the EU and UK can still be done.....
So, it’s in BJ’s interest to wait till after a deal emerges before adapting the IM Bill, so he can claim “My threat to violate international law has forced the EU to give me my FTA.”(p.s. any legal procedures over the IM Bill will stretch beyond 31/12/2020.)
So a positive reading of current developments is that this is all about creating a smoke screen for the Ultras at home. Showing them, BJ means business. While actually preparing the ground for concessions.
With the negotiating teams navigating their way thru the tunnel, it won’t be immediately clear what U-turns BJ has made, giving BJ time to massage the Ultras in his party. No surprise that some in the ERG are worried.
There are other reasons to be pessimistic. BJ may not make a U-turn, not because he doesn’t want to, but because he can’t.
Given this, politically, for BJ the easy route might be No Deal. Especially if BJ thinks a No Deal can be kept short. (After all, we all know ‘No Deal’ won’t be the end of EU-UK talks, right? The uncertainty is over how long the No Deal intermezzo will be.)
He might bet wrong (and Cummings might be right), and the pain and disruption of No Deal is less than expected, and he’ll be all the happier for it. Hoorah! But of course, if No Deal is long and painful, he’ll pay a political price.
https://twitter.com/remkorteweg/stat...92653410484226