Originally Posted by
Eric the Half a Bee
There have been very few Championship seasons over the last 20 years where teams from a similar or lower position than us have climbed into the top 6, or where teams from a similar or higher position than us have dropped into the bottom 3.
In 2003/04 Palace were in 21st place on 25 points, won 48 points from 23 games and finished 6th. The following season Preston were in 15th on 29 points and managed 2 points a game in reaching the playoffs. Those are the only two occasions teams with 29 points or less have finished in the top 6. Wigan got to the top 6 having 30 points at this stage. Sunderland won the division despite having 32 points at this point. In terms of points gap with the top 6, only the Palace and Preston achievements had a bigger gap than we have. In short, we'd realistically need 2 points a game between now and the end of the season to make the top 6.
3 sides with better records than us at this stage went on to be relegated - Hull last season, Wolves in 2013 and Walsall in 2004. 2 other sides went down having had 28 points at this stage.
Most teams in the top 6 and most teams in the bottom 3 tend to stay there until the end of the season.
For us, we are most likely to be a Championship side next season. Based on the last 20 years ago, relegation is slighly less improbable than a top 6 finish. Both are very unlikely, but not impossible. Whether you think either might happen depends on your viewpoint of how we are as a club at the moment.