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Yeah it was hospitality early December then the in effect lockdown with shops later. The closing of hospitality earlier with this new variant may be why we are lower than England.
New cases up a couple of hundred from yesterday, but there were more tests - unfortunately, nearly four times as many deaths.
https://public.tableau.com/profile/p...eadlinesummary
Its shocking. With the current numbers its going to be many weeks before we see the death toll start to steadily decrease.
The UK will be up to around 110k+ deaths by the middle of next month, once the effects of Christmas mixing and England's later lockdown get through the system.
When you think back to the reaction to that model last spring which predicted 66,000 deaths in the UK, that's a shocking number and yet people seem to be resigned to it now. Over 1,500 died on Wednesday and yet we have a lockdown that is less strict than the one for he first wave. There can be no doubt that, even if the vaccine programme goes as well as hoped (and, there appears to be good news on that front in the link below), the official UK response to the pandemic has been found seriously wanting.
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/corona...k-202101150515
Aren't those deaths mostly from actions before 2021 though? Cases coming down suggests current lockdown is working reasonably well but Boris wanting to protect Christmas shopping and waiting for the virus to spread out of London instead of locking down the whole of England was the wrong approach to take for virus control.
Additionally, we should recognise that health services are much better at keeping people alive now with advances in treatment options and knowledge. So many people dying despite this should highlight how bad things are, as should Derby and Burton hospital staff (and presumably others) being given PTSD treatment support.
Toby Young talks bollox, but this time he doesn’t get away with it;-
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-55676037
We’re going to be reaching 100,000 dead soon and still “libertarians” talk as if it’s a lot of fuss about nothing:-
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...sis-government
So if the per 100,000 rate drops below 300 ( so between 150-300), it’s dropped to 365 I believe, we go back to tier 3? Is that correct?
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/w...eford-19632245
Some areas of Wales may get back to tier 3 before easter if everyone can wear their trousers backwards and walk without a limp!
Thats just one of the factors.
Theres other measures though like the positivity rate.
I think theyd be just better discarding these tiers and making decisions on what you can and cant do as per the conditions at the time.
Theyd be better off just driving down this down as much as possible and see where we are come March when hopefully it will be warmer.
So many stupid rules such as inheriting that alchohol with a substantial meal.
So you can sit inside and have a meal and drink alchohol but you cant sit outside in the open air and just have a drink.
Number of vaccines in Wales now around 126k. Big drop in new cases to just over 1,100, deaths still high at 55.
https://public.tableau.com/profile/p...eadlinesummary
I've been looking at the BBC pages and lsitening to his briefing and I cannot see what Drakeford is actually basing his actions on.
He said it was 100% certain that pubs and hospitality were spreading the virus without producing any real proof and used it as a reason to close them all. Now he says its 100% certain that it is supermarkets spreading the virus without producing any evidence to back it up, and uses it as an excuse to squueze them. It is almost as if he is upset that he cannot close them down too.
Then he makes the rediculous statement about holding back vaccine so they have some to give out later. The way he says it is almost as if he considers it like a cure that he has to hoard to give to people when the become seriously ill, instead of preventing it. There is no other logivcal explanation I can think of for what he is suggesting.
The other thing that bothers me is all this making things law. (Writtwn into welsh law, as he says) It is being done by orders and no real debate is taking place in the chamber before it happens. As one Plaid member said some weeks ago, it is government by dictat and we can all understand where that might lead.
The thought that sitting dormant on the welsh staute books is a law that could be reactivated for other reasons which bans people from leaving their homes is scary. I realise that is a worst case scenario but we have no idea how many thing he has put into law. He was doing it early in the pandemic when others were just issuing rules of conduct. And the fact he can do it in committee/council shows that he actually makes all the decisions and the vegetables just nod.
With the falling numbers and the way this new variant seems to be spreading hes made the right call closing hospitality when he did. I thought he was wrong at the time.
Hes right to tighten up on supermarkets as well.
Needs to sort the vaccination roll out though.
I dont agree with his tier system.
But you could look at it another way. If he had jumped on the supermarkets first and left hospitality alone the numbers may have gone down faster, after all far more people use supermarkets than use pubs and restaurants. Its one of those things about which you will never know the real answer unless like a vaccine test, you impose the sanction on half the population and not the other half and then sit back and see which groups has the most excess deaths. Its clearly impossible in practice but I'm sure you get my point.
But when he closed the pubs he said there was clear evdience and consitently refused to release it which makes one wary when he now says it about supermarkets. As they are now the only places people can go it is fairly obvious that they may show up as the main source and he says people are telling him. What people? his advisory group of average citizens? His family? His office staff yes persons? Again he has declined to produce any proof which makes people believe it less.
And none of it will make those who are already ignoring the rules start accepting them. It's nonsense.