Originally Posted by
FormerlyJohnnyBreadhead
So earlier I did some research into this to see if I was talking out of my arse or not.
Note: These numbers are all from FBRefs. Unfortunately, shooting data has only been kept from the 2017-18 season onwards (which is of course when Paterson joined us, but it means I can't compare with players like Kenwyne Jones, Kenny Miller, and Federico Macheda (who I would venture would all also have fairly decent finishing stats)). Therefore, I have directly compared Paterson's stats against all other City forwards during that time. I have also disregarded any players who have played less than 1,000 mins for the club as it's too small a data sample to draw any conclusions from (although, interestingly, if we did include those players, Mark Harris would be our most effective finisher with a goals per shots ratio of 0.20, while Bogle has a so).
Anyway, FBRefs measure three key metrics in regard to finishing - goals per shots, goals per shots on target, and shots on target per shots. Since 2017, here are City's numbers:
Mins Gls Sh SoT SoT% G/Sh G/SoT
Danny Ward 2471 13 78 37 0.47 0.17 0.35
Kieffer Moore 1858 11 68 24 0.35 0.16 0.46
Bobby Reid 1677 5 32 9 0.28 0.16 0.56
Callum Paterson 6756 21 136 44 0.32 0.15 0.48
Sheyi Ojo 1927 4 28 11 0.39 0.14 0.36
Robert Glatzel 3147 11 88 38 0.43 0.13 0.29
Nat Mendez-Laing 5995 14 116 37 0.32 0.12 0.38
Josh Murphy 4229 11 108 33 0.31 0.10 0.33
Junior Hoillett 12427 23 230 70 0.30 0.10 0.33
Lee Tomlin 3198 10 102 37 0.36 0.10 0.27
Kenneth Zohore 6245 10 114 43 0.38 0.09 0.23
Harry Wilson 1714 3 43 11 0.26 0.07 0.27
Gavin Whyte 1791 1 23 5 0.22 0.04 0.20
Gary Madine 1014 0 20 9 0.45 0.00 0.00
Surprisingly, Danny Ward is actually the best finisher we've had in the last 4 years, which I guess is a whole different discussion to be had. Paterson, meanwhile, may not be "the most instinctive finisher" as I claimed, but is certainly a better finisher than pretty much all our other attacking players in recent years, bar a £10m player who is in the Premier League and Kieffer Moore.
And even then, it's not so clear cut. If you directly compare Paterson and Moore this season:
Mins Gls Sh SoT SoT% G/Sh G/SoT
Callum Paterson 1843 7 28 15 0.54 0.25 0.47
Kieffer Moore 1858 11 68 24 0.35 0.16 0.46
While Kieffer has scored more goals, Paterson hits the target a lot more frequently, and is more clinical. In fact he's been more clinical there than he was in his time at City.
Bottom line: Callum Paterson is a very good finisher.
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