Reply With QuoteThink Tories will do better than 14Originally Posted by Wozza16
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I think it’ll end up around
Labour - 25
Plaid - 16
Tory - 14
Lib Dem - 1
Abolish - 2
Greens - 2
Chuck down your predictions, winner gets bragging rights for 5 years
Come on Plaid!
Think Tories will do better than 14
I think Labour will win most seats but fail to get a majority
Whats worrying is that the conservatives are going to win more seats than plaid yet the free Wales movement claim that support for an independent Wales is growing ?
Thats clearly nonsense as they look set to record the same number of seats they did in 2016 !
Hardly a bandwagon 🙄
They will have enough seats to be a junior partner in a coalition with labour so that keeps Andrew rt Davies and the conservatives out so happy days
But its staggering the conservative vote is so high given the crap they have poured on Wales over the years . Their main attack on Labour seems to be they have had 22 years but compared to the time the tories have had running things in Westminster that's nothing . You expect areas like Monmouth and parts of mid Wales to be tory but people must have short memories if they are prepared to vote conservative given the wider picture .
I hope drakeford steps down as soon as possible because although I think his heart is in the right place he's old school .
As nationally Labour need a decent leader to shake things up and stick the boot into the blue meanies
tories will win more seats than plaid
Which is worrying for plaid and worrying for everyone
Labour need to get rid of Vaughan Gethin and Drakeford pronto
All parties have move further left including the Tories
At the moment they’re not as bad a self serving party they were in the 80s and 90s
Re: the Labour leader. There’s nothing wrong with Drakeford it’s the party itself that’s the issue. They are split into factions with no direction
Labour - 24
Plaid - 16
Tory - 16
Lib Dem - 1
Abolish - 2
Greens - 2
You're kidding right? Even if Plaid falter at this election the state of Welsh independence is completely different to 2016. Up to the high 20s/low 30s in the polls, not dismissed as a fringe issue, movements gaining members. All this without really any kind of campaign for independence
The wider picture is that Labour have taken Wales for granted, its their own fault if they somehow manage to throw away their total dominance of South Wales
The tories , and the country in general , are further to the right , patel is like Maggie thatcher and Boris is a right wing libertarian
no I am deadly serious
Plaid are the independence party and since 2016 it looks likely that they haven't gained any support at all , despite having a good leader
And they are going to gain less seats than the tory party
If you think that shows a growing movement for Welsh independence then I think you are dreaming
Movements gaining members ? Polls ?
Its all about what people vote for and more people will vote tory than the party of Wales
All they can ever hope for is coalition government and if Labour get a decent leader for next time they can forget about that too
I would prefer Labour to go into coalition with the liberals but they are dead in the water
The most recent analysis I've seen talks about economic left/right and culturally left/right. Parties may have shifted on one measure and shifted in opposite direction on the other.
If you choose to ignore everything else that's happened over the past few years and only focus on an election that's being held under exceptional circumstances then I don't know what to say
Also, what are you basing Plaid not getting any support on? The election's not happened yet and its pretty inconsistent to use polls to say that whilst saying its deluded to use polls as a yardstick for growth in pro-independence feeling
I think Lib Dem or Plaid will pick up a lot of people's 2nd vote on the Regional candidate. Labour seats will be down slightly, Plaid down, Tories up a lot. Andrew 'RT' Davies will claim victory though but Labour and Plaid combined will keep them out. All of my household (4) did a postal vote a week or so ago. It'll be interesting.
Pollsters sometimes get it wrong but everything points to Labour being the dominant party , propped up in a coalition by the Welsh nationalist Party who are likely to come third behind the tories
If that tells you there is a growing movement for Welsh independence then that doesn't transmit to Welsh peoples voting habits , more people in Wales would rather vote tory than for plaid cymru ?
What does that tell you about this growing movement for Welsh independence ?
I know what it tells me
Labour up a bit , plaid same as before , tories up a lot , which is worrying
People who vote for other parties support Welsh independence. Independence has not been an issue in this election, lockdowns and dislike of Drakeford have been.
To suggest Plaid's vote is representative of independence support is utter bollocks.
Polling has gone up dramatically in the past few years and is solidly in the 20s/30s, its hit the point that's its not a complete fringe issue anymore. Even if it doesn't transmit to a vote for Plaid in this one election, held under exceptional circumstances, that's still a better position than it was in this time 5 years ago
Is it really that hard for you to accept that its in a better place than it was? All the polling data is better than it was, more people are coming round to it as a possibility and its even being discussed by the London media. One disappointing result in an election that's been held in spite of us being lockdowns for a year doesn't change the fact that it is growing
Replace them with what all developed politicians remind me of the difference between championship players v premiership ones , I'm sure they mean well though .
Very few
Plaid offers a clear option , if independence was as strong as you and other nationalists want it to be , then the vote wouldn't be trailing behind the tories
You are kidding yourself but carry on
Time to walk the walk
People have the opportunity to vote for a one direction pro independence party
Today
Forget all the marches and opinion polls
Let's have it
My money says plaid vote is less than the tories
Labour will keep power.
Not much point in anyone else bothering in Wales.
Labour is going to lose overall power and form a coalition with plaid cymruLabour will keep power.
Not much point in anyone else bothering in Wales.
The conservatives will pick up 5 seats at least
Labour need to boot drakeford out and shape up pronto
Can I predict firstly that labour will not lose overall power because they don't have it to lose.........
and also predict that by the end of this thread 50% ish of the posts will have been by sludge.
well they have a majority in the Welsh assembly so what power it has , is theirs I would conclude
My prediction
Labour back a bit
Tories making gains(2016 UKIP vote goes to them)
Plaid treading water
26 L
18 T
14 P
2 Libs/Abolish
Labour will gain Rhondda and hold Llanelli. May lose Vale and Bridgend to Tories.
On a broader point, Plaid may be making loads of noise but are not breaking through to the broader electorate and are being squeezed by both Lab and Tory.
Not quite right Sludge. As at today Lab have 29 seats but are supported by 2, a Lib and Ind.
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