Stupid quarantine rules in Wales...do I ignore it?

[Hilts]

No doubt the New Statesman is correct which is what Drakeford is quoting when he says we lead the world. Well done Wales.

But in completing the course ie 2 jabs we are lagging behind with 39% of population having had both jabs. Latest data from Wales Public Health shows 1,237,123 people having 2 doses 39% of our population of 3.15 m.

Actually we may not be behind. England figures are real time. The way they are recorded means Wales are 5 days behind. Wales is 39.2 with 5 days of jabs not included.

[lisvaneblue]

Actually we may not be behind. England figures are real time. The way they are recorded means Wales are 5 days behind. Wales is 39.2 with 5 days of jabs not included.

There is no 5 day lag. Wales data is correct up to 5 June. Look on the PHE website and you can see each home nations data for 1/2nd doses by day and cummulative

What has happened is that Wales has focused on 1st jabs, and lags in giving the full course, whereas England has spread it differently

[Hilts]

There is no 5 day lag. Wales data is correct up to 5 June. Look on the PHE website and you can see each home nations data for 1/2nd doses by day and cummulative

What has happened is that Wales has focused on 1st jabs, and lags in giving the full course, whereas England has spread it differently

No according to this.

Lag in figures at the bottom


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55855220

[surge]

My OP by the way should say the incidence since the pandemic began is 7%( not0.7) and its the same for England and Wales

As far as vaccinations go I did mention those fully vaccinated ( 2 jabs) at 43% for England and 39% for Wales.

Yes, politicians do make political capital but how can he say we have the best rates in the world when we haven't.

The basic facts are that the incidence of Covid and the death rates England v Wales overall are virtually identical despite people arguing on this board that one is better than the other

In terms of over 18's (a different figure to those you've mentioned in your post) England is leading the way in the UK for two jabs and has about 5% more done than Wales but Wales is leading the way in terms of one jabs and is about 10% higher than next nation (England) within the UK.

We have the best rates in terms of first doses and part of that is the different strategy employed. One dose of the vaccine is about 33% effective two weeks after against the Delta variant so it might not end up being the best strategy but presumably it's quicker to second dose a population than first and second dose so we'll see how it develops and how we evaluate with hindsight. At the moment we can remember criticism when Drakeford said it wasn't a race and be glad so many are coming forward.

I'm sure the OP won't pay attention to these facts because they prefer your analysis though.

In terms of the OP, this is turning into whether they should respect rules of Wales if it's different to what they want to do. As TLG said earlier, it's seems they've made up their mind already.

Wales has fewer ICU beds per 100,000 than England so that's one reason to suggest that if Wales only has same death rates as England despite this then the Welsh strategy has worked better. At the end of the day the biggest mistakes have been putting people back into care homes (all nations did this) and lack of action taken at winter with Scotland taking action first (and having the reduced spike to show for it) and England taking action last (with the highest spike of deaths to show for it). It's unlikely we find out definitively which was best so will continue to be more opinion than clear analysis.

[lisvaneblue]

No according to this.

Lag in figures at the bottom


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55855220

If that's correct, and it looks like it is, then I apologise. So what's happening is that Wales is publishing official data daily showing the number of vaccinations administered on our official public health websites and it is inaccurate? So the data published for 5 June is for jabs given on 31 May??..Yet the politicians in Wales see the complete picture in real time?

And more puzzling is that the data shows the weekend fall offs in number of jabs given that you would normally expect. I note the BBC says GPs reporting data, so maybe all the data done in Community hubs is in real time??

[lisvaneblue]

In terms of over 18's (a different figure to those you've mentioned in your post) England is leading the way in the UK for two jabs and has about 5% more done than Wales but Wales is leading the way in terms of one jabs and is about 10% higher than next nation (England) within the UK.

We have the best rates in terms of first doses and part of that is the different strategy employed. One dose of the vaccine is about 33% effective two weeks after against the Delta variant so it might not end up being the best strategy but presumably it's quicker to second dose a population than first and second dose so we'll see how it develops and how we evaluate with hindsight. At the moment we can remember criticism when Drakeford said it wasn't a race and be glad so many are coming forward.

I'm sure the OP won't pay attention to these facts because they prefer your analysis though.

In terms of the OP, this is turning into whether they should respect rules of Wales if it's different to what they want to do. As TLG said earlier, it's seems they've made up their mind already.

Wales has fewer ICU beds per 100,000 than England so that's one reason to suggest that if Wales only has same death rates as England despite this then the Welsh strategy has worked better. At the end of the day the biggest mistakes have been putting people back into care homes (all nations did this) and lack of action taken at winter with Scotland taking action first (and having the reduced spike to show for it) and England taking action last (with the highest spike of deaths to show for it). It's unlikely we find out definitively which was best so will continue to be more opinion than clear analysis.

So are you implying that more people should have died in Wales because we have not invested in ICU beds to the same extent as England?

[splott parker]

I think I know what you are getting at by ' your lot' but it took some serious working out.

What I said in my OP was that despite Wales being cautious and Drakeford emphasising this approach, the overall incidence of Covid in Wales and the overall death rates are virtually identical to England. So is all this fuss with ' stupid quarantine rules in Wales' really worth it for the people of Wales. The outcome data says NO

Serious working out who else did you have in mind? The Lisvane/Brecon Meat Purveyors Appreciation Society?

[bigjoe]

Looking to visit home next month for the first time in a couple of years.

The missus and I have had 2 Pfizer jabs - more protected than most readers on here - and will arrive at Heathrow, collect a car and travel direct to extended family in England for quarantine. Since the US is on the amber list, we have to buy 2 tests each (at 170 pounds) to use on day 2 and day 8; if negative on day 10 we are free to travel into Wales.

England, however, also offers a day 5 quarantine release by purchasing an additional test and if that shows negative you've bought yourself out of quarantine (that's seems stupid but anyway...) . I've seen nothing in WAG's statements (including today's) about rules for ex-pats or visitors wanting to visit Wales so I called WAG today to check whether the 5-day England buy-out will free us to get into Wales on day 6 after arrival in UK.

Surprisingly I got a real person without too much delay (applause for that) but it was with regret that the spokesperson advised that Wales doesn't recognise the validity of the England 5-day release and, whilst appreciating the frustration of two systems running side by side the rules in Wales mean we must see out 10 days of quarantine after arriving in UK.

I recognise Wales is leading the way, data wise, in UK so Drakeford can justifiably point to the success of his Covid policy but doesn't there come a time when overkill is reached and precautions become too onerous and unnecessary?

Readers on this Board have undergone long, hard lockdowns to get where you are today in returning to normality (definitely tougher that I have here in Iowa) so my simple question is...do I ignore the quarantine and arrive back 'home' after 5 days and 2 negative tests as is permitted in England?

If you break the law I hope you'll be caught and it'll end with a reported court case. Not for vindictiveness but just to read your defence letting everybody know where you asked for advice

[dml1954]

No doubt the New Statesman is correct which is what Drakeford is quoting when he says we lead the world. Well done Wales.

But in completing the course ie 2 jabs we are lagging behind with 39% of population having had both jabs. Latest data from Wales Public Health shows 1,237,123 people having 2 doses 39% of our population of 3.15 m.

Why are you continuing to use total population figures when under 18’s are not as yet included in the process ? Its 49.2% of the eligible population that have received the two doses and over 86% the first dose, in Wales.

[lisvaneblue]

Why are you continuing to use total population figures when under 18’s are not as yet included in the process ? Its 49.2% of the eligible population that have received the two doses and over 86% the first dose, in Wales.

It's the only direct comparison I could find v England.

Using your data it looks like 7 months into the vaccination programme over half of the eligible population of Wales is not 'fully protected'.

[the other bob wilson]

Seems to me Wales is prioritising all adults getting a vaccine over delivering second ones at the moment - possibly because we haven’t been that hard hit by the Indian variant up to now:-

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-57385909

[Croesy Blue]

There is no 5 day lag. Wales data is correct up to 5 June. Look on the PHE website and you can see each home nations data for 1/2nd doses by day and cummulative

What has happened is that Wales has focused on 1st jabs, and lags in giving the full course, whereas England has spread it differently

I can't imagine being so biased towards a political party that I would make myself look as stupid as this on purpose. So embarrassing

[the other bob wilson]

Very comprehensive Covid stats for Wales here with some comparisons with England;-

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52380643

[life on mars]

Go via Gibraltar

[life on mars]

Serious working out who else did you have in mind? The Lisvane/Brecon Meat Purveyors Appreciation Society?

Chop Chop

[dml1954]

It's the only direct comparison I could find v England.

Using your data it looks like 7 months into the vaccination programme over half of the eligible population of Wales is not 'fully protected'.

Englands figures are fully published on the same Government website as Wales (England currently 54% fully covered). However Wales did over 55000 second jabs over the last weekend, so will catch up fast at that rate.

[life on mars]

Englands figures are fully published on the same Government website as Wales (England currently 54% fully covered). However Wales did over 55000 second jabs over the last weekend, so will catch up fast at that rate.

England has a lot more folk to cope with

[jon1959]

England has a lot more folk to cope with

Do you think maybe England also has a lot more folk to do the coping/

[lisvaneblue]

Englands figures are fully published on the same Government website as Wales (England currently 54% fully covered). However Wales did over 55000 second jabs over the last weekend, so will catch up fast at that rate.

Wales has done terrific job focused on 1st jabs.

As you say Wales needs to catch up on 2nd jabs. The issue we have is that Wales has been working on giving a second jab within 12 weeks.

Since mid- May the joint vaccine committee says that 2nd jabs need to be given within 8-9 weeks because of the risks with the Delta variant.

Looking at where Wales is currently, in broad terms there are around 900,000- 1m people who need to have a second dose within the next 8-9 weeks. Can be done but will need a few more 55k weekends plus some to do it.

[lisvaneblue]

I can't imagine being so biased towards a political party that I would make myself look as stupid as this on purpose. So embarrassing

Ive not mentioned politics once. The data I looked at was officially published on the Wales website. Wales data today says deaths so far 5570, Wales data on BBC report that TOBW refers to says death rate over 7,000......which is right??

My original post was straightforward...With all the differences between the way Wales and England have handled the pandemic,( and there's been lots of criticism on this board about both countries,) there is hardly any difference at all in per capita key outcomes..ie the number of people who have had Covid and the number of deaths....no difference....and we are over a year into this pandemic, with each country tweaking this and that.....no differences to the two key end points inEngland and Wales

[life on mars]

Ive not mentioned politics once. The data I looked at was officially published on the Wales website. Wales data today says deaths so far 5570, Wales data on BBC report that TOBW refers to says death rate over 7,000......which is right??

My original post was straightforward...With all the differences between the way Wales and England have handled the pandemic,( and there's been lots of criticism on this board about both countries,) there is hardly any difference at all in per capita key outcomes..ie the number of people who have had Covid and the number of deaths....no difference....and we are over a year into this pandemic, with each country tweaking this and that.....no differences to the two key end points in England and Wales

Guess its in the human nature to wish one is better than some else , used to see it a lot in school playgrounds

[Taunton Blue Genie]

Guess its in the human nature to wish one is better than some else , used to see it a lot in school playgrounds

You never struck me as an old Etonian.

[bigjoe]

You never struck me as an old Etonian.

Not a wish. One knew that one was better.

[Allez Allez Allez]

Thanks to all who've contributed, I'm pleased not to have much in the way of negativity to my attitude which matches that described by xsnaggle above. The main point at issue is that England and Wales have different requirements to deal with the same problem. They are both looking at the same data but come out with different conclusions on how to handle with it. A number of people I've spoken to at home feel the First Minister has often taken a different, and less progressive, view from Boris just to demonstrate Wales can and will be different with the outcome being the same just a few weeks behind Westminster. If that's correct it must have been very frustrating at times for you all.

Particular thanks too to Des Parrott for recommending Dante for the testing kits, I'll be on to them and have them send what we need to our English destination.

FFS.

xsnaggle isn't a doctor is he? But, he said something you want to hear, and that's good enough for you.

Currently 91% of cases in the UK have been of a form that has been imported in from India. No doubt brought in by someone who thought they were clean.

The fact you had 2 vaccines is neither here nor there. It improves your chances of not getting sick, but it is not known that it suppresses transmission. In other words, you may contract the Delta virus while you are here, and then export it back to the US, all the while not ever once being sick, or having so much as a symptom thanks to the vaccine.

You, singularly, don't pose a huge degree of risk of starting a cluster of cases in Wales. But, add in you and many others who have the same attitude, and the risk grows for us all.

And the risk?
People dying
Sectors of industries shutting down
People losing jobs
People forced to face more restrictions despite following guidelines

I have been unable to visit a relative diagnosed with cancer (even though that person has had 2 vaccines). I have been unable to visit parents who are old and vulnerable (even though they have had both vaccines). And everytime we get to a stage where I may be able to do this without risking the health of people I care about, the UK opens its borders to import in a variant from South Africa or India, maybe next time the US.

But, sadly, this has inconvenienced you and I am really sorry. Please, come into the country with other plane loads of selfish twats, and I'll keep chatting to relatives on a doorstep.

[surge]

In terms of over 18's (a different figure to those you've mentioned in your post) England is leading the way in the UK for two jabs and has about 5% more done than Wales but Wales is leading the way in terms of one jabs and is about 10% higher than next nation (England) within the UK.

....

When I posted this on the 6th Wales was 10.1% ahead of England in terms of first jabs and 4.2% behind in terms of second.

As of the 11th of June Wales has managed 9.4% more first jabs than England while is 3.4% behind England in terms of second jabs.

It's not a race, there are many different factors at play and it's dependent on people coming forward especially if they think they've been missed. In terms of the Delta Variant the protection is much greater after 2nd jabs.