Coronavirus update - NO MORE RESTRICTIONS

[Taunton Blue Genie]

'closed down' in a generic sense - put on stop -put back- removed from list- added to list

If you put opening up back any further, extend what are in effect holiday bans, because you're 'concerned', then we'll carry on like this indefinitely.
If you don't reach a stage in your reasoning that a risk is possible yet unlikely, then you will never stop the endless fear that's plaguing Government. What's ironic, is there isn't actually a new variant according to WHO, it's a minor mutation of which there have been 1000's.

Not 'closed down' in the sense of being closed down then. In recent weeks I have drunk beer in pub gardens, increased the number of people on my walks from 6 to up to 30, attended a football game, visited Wales, eaten in restaurants with up to 6 friends etc - all things that I couldn't do a month or two ago. Yes, some measures have had to be revised or reversed in the short term but being 'closed down again' it ain't.

[xsnaggle]

Here you go.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-57399148

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-57226423

[goats]

Interesting views on where it originated from coming again, with wuhans institute of virology looking likely again....

Firstly, they claim that the Covid-19 pathogen has a genetic footprint that has never been observed in a natural coronavirus before. To put this in its simplest form, Covid-19 has the genome sequencing CGC-CGG or "double CGG" which is one of the 36 sequencing patterns. They said CGC is rarely used in the class of coronaviruses that can recombine with CoV-2 which is a "damning fact".

Dr Quay, the founder of US-based biopharmaceutical company Atossa, wrote: "The insertion sequence of choice is the double CGG. That's because it is readily available and convenient, and scientists have a great deal of experience inserting it. An additional advantage of the double CGG sequence compared with the other 35 possible choices: It creates a useful beacon that permits the scientists to track the insertion in the laboratory."

The experts added: "In fact, in the entire class of coronaviruses that includes CoV-2, the CGG-CGG combination has never been found naturally. That means the common method of viruses picking up new skills, called recombination, cannot operate here.

Full story in Wales online

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/h...china-20768398

[surge]

When I posted that the two links were different, one said there were only 3 deaths in the week just gone and the other said there had been no covid related deaths for 12 days. Both on the BBC Wales website at 0800 this morning.
Which is why I asked the question.

A few days ago they said there hadn't been a death in x number of days but had recorded one from last year.

In theory, it's possible that in a year's time we're told actually there was a death recorded within this timeframe so guess difference is that we'd have to really search for them rather than it being so obvious.

If anyone has been missed regarding vaccine they'd love to hear from you.

[xsnaggle]

A few days ago they said there hadn't been a death in x number of days but had recorded one from last year.

In theory, it's possible that in a year's time we're told actually there was a death recorded within this timeframe so guess difference is that we'd have to really search for them rather than it being so obvious.

If anyone has been missed regarding vaccine they'd love to hear from you.

I don't really understand what you are trying to say here.
I only pointed out that as both articles were posted on the BBC website on the same day (today) that I could not see how they could both be considered right. That's all. I'm not getting at the government or PHW it is more a question of the BBC not checking what they are putting out.
And I still don't know which one is right.

[surge]

I don't really understand what you are trying to say here.
I only pointed out that as both articles were posted on the BBC website on the same day (today) that I could not see how they could both be considered right. That's all. I'm not getting at the government or PHW it is more a question of the BBC not checking what they are putting out.
And I still don't know which one is right.

I'm going to make up the dates to help illustrate the point but basically the story was that Wales had gone 11 days without a death from covid but an extra one had been recorded relating to May 2020.

That might explain how a story can report 12 days without a death and also 3 deaths being recorded.

[xsnaggle]

I'm going to make up the dates to help illustrate the point but basically the story was that Wales had gone 11 days without a death from covid but an extra one had been recorded relating to May 2020.

That might explain how a story can report 12 days without a death and also 3 deaths being recorded.

But that is not what the articles said. One said no deaths for the last 12 (now 13) days and the other said 3 deaths in the last week. No mention of historical deaths being added.

[lardy]

But that is not what the articles said. One said no deaths for the last 12 (now 13) days and the other said 3 deaths in the last week. No mention of historical deaths being added.

I think this is the key sentence in the deaths article:

"They are regarded as more complete than the daily snapshot figures reported by Public Health Wales."

Zero deaths is the PHW info. The ONS uses death certificates, which are available later. That's how the articles explain it.

[lisvaneblue]

I think this is the key sentence in the deaths article:

"They are regarded as more complete than the daily snapshot figures reported by Public Health Wales."

Zero deaths is the PHW info. The ONS uses death certificates, which are available later. That's how the articles explain it.

It's the same with the total deaths data. PHW says just under 5,600 total since the start of the pandemic. ONS say just over 7,800. Big difference

[life on mars]

People who have had Covid don't need to be vaccinated ,interesting report ,could speed the vaccine on if adopted ?

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....01.21258176v2

[the other bob wilson]

Big jump in the number of new cases in Wales today, up to 223.

https://public.tableau.com/views/Rap...Amobile=true#2

[Hilts]

Yeah big jump. Not good. Hopefully we dont see big rises in hospital admissions.

[lardy]

It's the same with the total deaths data. PHW says just under 5,600 total since the start of the pandemic. ONS say just over 7,800. Big difference

Presumably PHW aren't going back to update their daily figures. ONS will be more reliable.

[life on mars]

Interesting take:

There was always going to be a new wave of infections as restrictions lifted. After all, lockdowns don’t kill a virus – they just delay the spread. But should we be scared? In this week’s issue, Philip Thomas, a professor of risk management, is emphatic that there’s no need to fear the third wave. We’re as ready as we’ll ever be, thanks to the success of the vaccines. There may well be a huge rise in Covid cases over the summer – particularly among the young – but thankfully, the virus has been deprived of the danger it once carried. So let’s re-open, he says, and deal with the exit wave now, rather than in the depths of winter.

[the other bob wilson]

Less than half of the new cases there were in Wales yesterday, but it is still over a hundred;-

https://public.tableau.com/views/Rap...Amobile=true#2

[goats]

Interesting take:

There was always going to be a new wave of infections as restrictions lifted. After all, lockdowns don’t kill a virus – they just delay the spread. But should we be scared? In this week’s issue, Philip Thomas, a professor of risk management, is emphatic that there’s no need to fear the third wave. We’re as ready as we’ll ever be, thanks to the success of the vaccines. There may well be a huge rise in Covid cases over the summer – particularly among the young – but thankfully, the virus has been deprived of the danger it once carried. So let’s re-open, he says, and deal with the exit wave now, rather than in the depths of winter.

Exactly, aren’t we heading for herd immunity through vaccines and antibodies? Anyone got any sympathy for the anti vaccers if they end up in hospital?

[lardy]

Exactly, aren’t we heading for herd immunity through vaccines and antibodies? Anyone got any sympathy for the anti vaccers if they end up in hospital?

Herd immunity won't happen imo. For measles, about 95% vaccination is needed. Even if you get that, if you go somewhere that's not 95%, like on holiday, then youre at risk again.

I don't think scientists know enough about covid to have a reliable herd % - I know 80% used to be mentioned a lot but we've had a very infectious variant since then.

[surge]

Interesting take:

There was always going to be a new wave of infections as restrictions lifted. After all, lockdowns don’t kill a virus – they just delay the spread. But should we be scared? In this week’s issue, Philip Thomas, a professor of risk management, is emphatic that there’s no need to fear the third wave. We’re as ready as we’ll ever be, thanks to the success of the vaccines. There may well be a huge rise in Covid cases over the summer – particularly among the young – but thankfully, the virus has been deprived of the danger it once carried. So let’s re-open, he says, and deal with the exit wave now, rather than in the depths of winter.

Two points from that:

i) we're as ready as we'll ever be for a third wave
ii) let's chose timing of that third wave to ensure it's not during winter time

Hard to agree with the first and disagree with the second.

[goats]

Herd immunity won't happen imo. For measles, about 95% vaccination is needed. Even if you get that, if you go somewhere that's not 95%, like on holiday, then youre at risk again.

I don't think scientists know enough about covid to have a reliable herd % - I know 80% used to be mentioned a lot but we've had a very infectious variant since then.

I remember you saying that the vaccine rollout would be the beginning of the end too.....

[lardy]

I remember you saying that the vaccine rollout would be the beginning of the end too.....

That is not the zinger of a putdown that you think it is

[delmbox]

I know it's old news that Wales has done well on the vaccination front but seen in a chart like on this page it really is impressive

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-57438587

[lardy]

I remember you saying that the vaccine rollout would be the beginning of the end too.....

I think you're talking about this:

https://www.ccmb.co.uk/showthread.ph...=1#post5120002

Last September, when you said:
"Think they are just saying 6 months as that’s winter over at least, even though the last lockdown started at the end of last winter.....

Maybe there will be a vaccine? Didn’t Vallance say the other day there was a small chance it could be ready for those who need it most by Christmas? Now, that would be the sort of news that if true most people would just toe the line up until then, knowing things will be normal again post Christmas. I’d be happy to sit in for 3 months if it was nailed on this would end once and for all."


And I replied:
"The arrival of the vaccine will be the beginning of the end, but it will still take a painfully long time before we can say it's ended once and for all. "


The end clearly refers to the end of lockdowns, restrictions, etc. Please don't twist my words to make it seem like I said the vaccine was the beginning of the end of the virus itself.

Later that day in the thread you called me "the merchant of doom"
but time hasn't proven me wrong yet, wouldn't you say goats?

[surge]

For those above 18 and on a purely UK level as of 9th of June:

1st: Wales, 87%
2nd: Scotland, 77.6%
3rd: England, 77.1%
4th: Northern Ireland, 75.8%

And for second doses that is:

1st: England, 55.3%
2nd: Scotland, 52.9%
3rd: Wales, 52.1%
4th: Northern Ireland, 50.7%

As per: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations

I think what interested me most was that the gap in terms of second doses for Wales from top position is narrowing but gap to second position for first doses has remained stable since I last looked at the figures a few days ago.

It's obviously not a race and many different factors at play, also the most important thing is people coming forward especially if they've missed a dose.

[xsnaggle]

More pollitics, Drakeford saying something is "Simply untrue" answering a different question. He says that they have never drawn from the UK Buffer stockpile implying Hancock said they had, where in reality Hancock said the buffer is available if it is needed. A different thing.
The reason Wales have vaccinated a greater percentage of people is because they are targeting first vaccinations where England and Scotland are going more for second, and that's the only reason. They haven't manage to make more doses by giving less or conjured up extra doses on their own, it's nonsense. you can only give the number of vaccines you have, the difference is who you give them to.
The other political thing in this article is Mr Drakeford also said he was not prepared to follow England by announcing a date when all freedoms would be restored in Wales.

"I think it's too optimistic to say that vaccination has broken the link between falling ill and hospitalisation with the new Delta variant," he said. It implies he has already made his mind up, so much for someone who says he always follows the science. If the science says open up, does anyone honestly believe he will?
It's not medical, it's political.

[goats]

I think you're talking about this:

https://www.ccmb.co.uk/showthread.ph...=1#post5120002

Last September, when you said:
"Think they are just saying 6 months as that’s winter over at least, even though the last lockdown started at the end of last winter.....

Maybe there will be a vaccine? Didn’t Vallance say the other day there was a small chance it could be ready for those who need it most by Christmas? Now, that would be the sort of news that if true most people would just toe the line up until then, knowing things will be normal again post Christmas. I’d be happy to sit in for 3 months if it was nailed on this would end once and for all."


And I replied:
"The arrival of the vaccine will be the beginning of the end, but it will still take a painfully long time before we can say it's ended once and for all. "


The end clearly refers to the end of lockdowns, restrictions, etc. Please don't twist my words to make it seem like I said the vaccine was the beginning of the end of the virus itself.

Later that day in the thread you called me "the merchant of doom"
but time hasn't proven me wrong yet, wouldn't you say goats?

Things aren’t doom like at all are they? Doom monger