Quote Originally Posted by Citizen's Nephew View Post
OK, I'm not picking on you or your posts, it's just that the quote really annoys me. What does it actually mean? How does it translate into numbers requiring hospital care? The weasel-word phrases like 'likely lead...' don't help. We may as well stop all treatments and divert resources in medical facilities when there's ice on the motorways as this is more likely to cause pile-ups and swamp A&E.
I am just pointing out that there are two fundamental unknowns at the moment: Omicron's transmissibility and severity. I know epidemiologists are struggling to figure out how many severe cases (requiring hospitalization) are likely to present in the near future based on those two factors.

If you like things in terms of numbers take a group of 100 people. (Ignore the following if you already get this.)

Suppose, just for illustration, Delta caused 20 infections next week and 1 in 20 Delta infections is severe. We'd have 1 ill person from the group of 100.

Now suppose Omicron caused 60 infections next week but only 1 in 30 cases with Omicron are severe. We'd still have 2 cases in the 100. Things would be worse.