Sense of impending doom

[19bluebirds27]

If it was a final day shootout against Derby then that would mean they would either be one place below us or one above and one of us would be in the bottom three. How on earth, on that basis, you wouldn't class Derby as a ‘fellow struggler’ is beyond me. In those kind of games anything can happen.

You realise Derby have had 21 points deducted yea.

[the other bob wilson]

I'm surprised you thought we were doing so well against Bournemouth up until the sending off Bob. I thought it was more a case of Bournemouth having an off day. I thought Morison's selection of Vaulks and Bacuna was dire and filled me with dread from the outset.

I agree his overreaction with Davies was unforgivable and I think he would do well to eat a large portion of humble pie. But I think he'll get nowhere fast selecting players who have proved their unsuitability in the past.

I thought Bournemouth were a bit complacent in the first half and things may well have turned out differently after Parker had read them the riot act, but, if someone watched that first half as a neutral without knowing anything about both sides' form and league position, I think they would have thought the team in blue were unlucky to be losing after forty five minutes.

[Cleve van Leef]

We are too good to go down. A shaky start to the new year then we go on a winning run in February and March beating all comers. Can't see any of the bottom 3 bothering us.

No yet gets relegated is too good to go down, and City certainly ain’t good enough at the moment

[Cleve van Leef]

No yet gets relegated is too good to go down, and City certainly ain’t good enough at the moment

No team that gets relegated!!

[Trigger]

Half way through the season and it's difficult to see us getting enough form to pull away. But also we shouldn't lose 8 on the bounce again.

How costly it could prove that they didn't just get rid of MM after the West brom match.

[NYCBlue]

This would definitely be my preferred option. Tan can't afford for us to slip into L1 surely. Others have mentioned the financial millstone of court cases and I'm guessing (I stress) but administration would surely be on the cards? The cynic in me feels that all of this is already planned because we can blame the board, Warnock, Tan as much as we want for running things into the ground but I cannot believe this wasn't factored in a while ago.

Just on the subject of Morison. He's had enough time to know his starting eleven and he doesn't. Two new players recalled (though I feel he should recall Whyte & Murphy too because we're too thin a squad especially during Covid) and A.N. Other loan signing/s will confuse him even more. By January we should have had a settled starting eleven and be looking at not shipping bloody goals in the first 45. The pattern of going a goal down at the break and sneaking a draw or win isn't going to keep us up. I actually thought Bournemouth was a big step backward. I think they could have been beaten (same as when they came to us) but whilst I think our style is changing, it's tactics on the day that I'm concerned about.

I think it's more of a case that he knows he has a starting 11 he doesn't want. So he's tinkering. Bournemouth were obviously better than us, but until Bacuna got sent off we were more than holding our own. Yesterday we got what on paper was a creditable point. However, we probably should have capitalized in the last 15 minutes and taken all three points. I have the feeling he doesn't trust a lot of the players. And I can't really blame him.

[Divine Wright]

Even if we do stay up, which I think we will, I am sceptical about Morison's ability to take us further forward.

The same issues will be here in a year's time. We need an overhaul and someone who's qualified to oversee the clubs long-term direction in terms of recruitment and playing style. You can't rely on a novice coach to install the type of structure that the club needs.

Part of me feels we'd be closer to getting the antidote to the clubs dithering if we went down. Stay up and stagnate until we eventually stumble upon the right manager (the likes of Cooper) who can put together a decent team on a tight budget, or stagnate and eventually end up going down anyway.

I don't think Morison keeping the club in the Championship would represent a successful season.

[SuisseBluebird]

The position Cardiff currently find themselves as we all know was heavily impacted by Mick McCarthy's questionable approach to management up until his final game where Cardiff found themselves 21st on 11 points with 14 games played.

10 games on, Cardiff are still under performing but there are definite signs of improvement under Morison. Yes, 12 points from a possible 30 is not fantastic, but on the form table for the last 10 games that Morison has been in charge, Cardiff have a better return on points than Coventry/Birmingham/Bristol City (11) Blackpool (10), Reading (9), Peterborough (8) and Barnsley (6). And also have the same point return than Bournemouth/Millwall/Luton. It's lower mid table form but still enough to keep Cardiff's head above water.

The original post voiced concerns regarding Derby, who have picked up 3 more points than Cardiff over the last 10 games and have a further 12 points to make up before seasons end. I have reasonable optimism that Cardiff can distance themselves from the relegation zone, a faltering Peterborough and Barnsley is certainly a big help. But I am not too concerned by Derby, who have been outperforming expectations but still have an almighty battle on their hands.

Biggest concern for me is the loss of Giles, who after being deployed at left wing back proved himself to be a key component to the majority of the better displays coming from the Bluebirds. I have not seen enough from Bagan to suggest he can plug that gap so will likely need Morison to perform some magic in the transfer market to fill the position vacated by Giles.

[willo1927]

HNY Bluebirds.

I have sense of foreboding brought on by the facts that at halfway we are 12 points ahead of Derby, Derby in actuality are 10 points better than us based on results from the first half of the season, we have yet to play two six-pointers against them, and, our last game is of course Derby away.

As Fraser was wont to say ...

We did lose 8 in a row which hopefully was our blip for the season.
We still kept out of the bottom 3 after these loses so if we can keep our away form which isn't too shabby and improve our abysmal home form then I'll think we'll be ok.
It's going to a bumpy ride but I'll stick my neck out and say we'll be a championship club next season.

[willo1927]

I’m normally
Optimistic when it come to Cardiff.
But I think our form will be much the same as it is now over the remaining months picking up 4-6 points a month.
I probably would accept a final day shootout against Derby.
Problem would be that if Derby find themselves in that position which would be a mega achievement on their part - they would actually have accumulated enough points on the pitch for a play off and by no means would we be playing a fellow struggler.

Not sure you have the maths right.
If you add 21 points onto Derby they will have 32 and be in 13th.
A bit short of being in playoff form.

[19bluebirds27]

The points requirement for play offs and survival alters Season by season.
If you look at the 19/20 championship the point difference between 6th and 21st place was 21 points and relegation was 22.

I think you get the point I’m trying to make. If Derby get themselves into a final day shootout then in theory they won’t have struggled this under the circumstances and not written themselves off like a lot on here seem to be doing.

Derby motivate themselves by following the 2 league tables they put up on the walls (with and without the deductions and chasing a play off) and on the basis that the actual table and survival will take care of itself.
I hope City do the same to remind them of the scale of the task we really could have been in.

[bigjoe]

We are too good to go down. ...

Was Nottingham Forest the first team that was too good to go down?

[Rjk]

Reading are in big trouble as well, they had a good start, but have really dropped off and could conceivably lose someone like Swift in this transfer window. they have a small squad.

Derby might also sell players if they get offers in the window, if their management think they are basically down anyway.

Barnsley and Peterborough are poor

I think we will be ok.
if one or two of the youngsters start influencing games with more consistency then we will make it.

[tforturton]

They say the target to stay up is 50 points. After 23 games, we had 22 points. So we had played half the season, including an eight-game run of defeats, and we were still only 3 points off target. We need another 28 points - now 27, after West Brom. That's 7 wins and 6 draws. We can manage that, surely? W7 D6 L9 ? I think we'll be okay, if only because I can't see the second half of the season being anywhere near as poor as the first half.