Covid Rates in Wales - have the greater restrictions worked at all?

[Canton Kev]

Re: Covid Rates in Wales - have the greater restrictions worked at all?

I agree, hospitalisations and deaths are what matters most...

But...

The point of stopping us going to the football, the bar, making us WFH etc etc is to stop the spread.

England has been more liberal and it potentially doesn't seem to have made much difference.

Because you’re using the wrong metric.... If you can find hospitalisations and deaths for England and they don’t differ from Wales then you might have a point. I’m not gonna go looking for you, it’s your thread.

[TWGL1]

Re: Covid Rates in Wales - have the greater restrictions worked at all?

I agree, hospitalisations and deaths are what matters most...

But...

The point of stopping us going to the football, the bar, making us WFH etc etc is to stop the spread.

England has been more liberal and it potentially doesn't seem to have made much difference.

If you look at Sweden the answer would be to follow them, but nobody ever mentions them. Yes it’s a large unpopulated country but many of the cities populations per sq KM is similar to Wales 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

[AntEvans]

Re: Covid Rates in Wales - have the greater restrictions worked at all?

I agree, hospitalisations and deaths are what matters most...

But...

England has been more liberal and it potentially doesn't seem to have made much difference.

England does not include reinfections in its daily totals. Wales does.

I also read on the weekend that there’s a backlog of data to be uploaded to the English numbers. No idea if the latter is true.

[TWGL1]

Re: Covid Rates in Wales - have the greater restrictions worked at all?

Because you’re using the wrong metric.... If you can find hospitalisations and deaths for England and they don’t differ from Wales then you might have a point. I’m not gonna go looking for you, it’s your thread.

Here is England ��������������

���� Breaking - the number of patients with #Covid19 in ventilated beds has fallen by 4% over the past week in England.

➡️ Numbers are 72% lower than last year

https://twitter.com/statsjamie/status/1480591126033838084?s=21

I’d follow thus guy for stats

➡️ Patients with Covid-19 overall in hospital up a third, but up to 45% may be in with Covid, but not for it.

Here is Wales ��������������

���� Wales - 15% increase in past week in #Covid19 patients in ventilated beds & 73% lower than last year

➡️ Patients in general beds up 74% but 55% lower than last year

➡️ No Wales data but 37-45% of English beds have patients with Covid but not reason for being in hospital

[Canton Kev]

Re: Covid Rates in Wales - have the greater restrictions worked at all?

Here is England ��������������

���� Breaking - the number of patients with #Covid19 in ventilated beds has fallen by 4% over the past week in England.

➡️ Numbers are 72% lower than last year

https://twitter.com/statsjamie/status/1480591126033838084?s=21

I’d follow thus guy for stats

➡️ Patients with Covid-19 overall in hospital up a third, but up to 45% may be in with Covid, but not for it.

Here is Wales ��������������

���� Wales - 15% increase in past week in #Covid19 patients in ventilated beds & 73% lower than last year

➡️ Patients in general beds up 74% but 55% lower than last year

➡️ No Wales data but 37-45% of English beds have patients with Covid but not reason for being in hospital

These don’t really help either. With no numbers to know what the increase/decrease is from these stats are mostly useless.

What I’m saying is the useful stats for OP to find and to look at are hospitalisations for Covid per 100k or 1m and deaths from Covid per 100k or 1m and compare those numbers between the 2 countries.

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Covid Rates in Wales - have the greater restrictions worked at all?

Surely this is straightforward? As mentioned earlier in the thread, official Government figures have cases at one per fifteen people in England, compared to one in twenty in Scotland and Wales.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases

Clearly then, the official figures show that Covid rates are worse in England than they are in the other two countries. However, one in twenty is bad, as bad as I can remember it being for Scotland and Wales and so it seems to me that the debate to be had is that, while England are in a worse place than us, does the slightly better infection rate justify the restrictions imposed by the Welsh and Scottish Governments? For myself, I was against the closing of sports stadia in particular and I’ve not seen anything in the last fortnight to change my opinion.

[Canton Kev]

Re: Covid Rates in Wales - have the greater restrictions worked at all?

If you look at Sweden the answer would be to follow them, but nobody ever mentions them. Yes it’s a large unpopulated country but many of the cities populations per sq KM is similar to Wales ��������������

Why Sweden? The most similar countries to Sweden are their Scandinavian neighbours.

Per capita, their deaths are 6x higher than Norway’s and 5x higher than Finland’s.

[TWGL1]

Re: Covid Rates in Wales - have the greater restrictions worked at all?

You don’t need the exact numbers as the population difference is about 48m , the percentage is what counts and it’s weekly.

I wonder how many are discharged every day ?

How many in hospital are waiting to be placed in care homes ?

[The Bloop]

Re: Covid Rates in Wales - have the greater restrictions worked at all?

Got to take into account the ability of the NHS to care for those admitted to hospital aswell.
The numbers of beds (including critical care), staffing levels (including sickness ) all are taken into account, not just the headline figures we see every day.

[TWGL1]

Re: Covid Rates in Wales - have the greater restrictions worked at all?

Why Sweden? The most similar countries to Sweden are their Scandinavian neighbours.

Per capita, their deaths are 6x higher than Norway’s and 5x higher than Finland’s.

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/14034948211047137

You would think every country in the world would have the same rules , but even in the Uk we don’t , that’s what’s baffling

[Canton Kev]

Re: Covid Rates in Wales - have the greater restrictions worked at all?

You don’t need the exact numbers as the population difference is about 48m , the percentage is what counts and it’s weekly.

I wonder how many are discharged every day ?

How many in hospital are waiting to be placed in care homes ?

Assuming you’re replying to me, you’re missing my point. Saying “hospitalisations are down 20% in England and 10% in Wales compared to last year” doesn’t tell us anything. These are all made up numbers now to illustrate my point: England could’ve had 10% of the country in hospital so a 20% reduction means 8% of the country are now hospitalised. Compared to wales where last year we might’ve had 5% hospitalised so a 10% reduction means only 4.5% are hospitalised. The comparison could be being made when Wales could’ve been right in the middle of our peak and England in a trough.

[TWGL1]

Re: Covid Rates in Wales - have the greater restrictions worked at all?

That’s a fair point actually , but an easier variable would be to look at annual excess deaths and compare those year on year taking into account population growth.

[Hilts]

Re: Covid Rates in Wales - have the greater restrictions worked at all?

How is Bristol doing better than cardiff then? No one seems to be able to answer it and omicron landed in both cities about the same time

I dont see how Bristol has any relevance. The question was have the restrictions worked.

Did closing nightclubs , stopping crowds at stadiums , the rule of 6 in pubs work.

Im 99.9 per cent sure if those things hadnt been restricted there would have been more close contacts more infections more people isolating.

I have no idea on why Bristol is currently less.

Im pretty certain its not because they can go to the football , go to packed nightclubs and pubs though.

[Canton Kev]

Re: Covid Rates in Wales - have the greater restrictions worked at all?

That’s a fair point actually , but an easier variable would be to look at annual excess deaths and compare those year on year taking into account population growth.

If you can find those numbers by all means post them here.

I’d argue an easier way of measuring is just looking at “Hospitalisations per 100k” and “Deaths per 100k” since the current restrictions were announced. We’re talking about the current restrictions so looking at annual excess deaths would only cover restrictions in 2020 and 2021.

[Citizen's Nephew]

Re: Covid Rates in Wales - have the greater restrictions worked at all?

Surely this is straightforward? As mentioned earlier in the thread, official Government figures have cases at one per fifteen people in England, compared to one in twenty in Scotland and Wales.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases

Clearly then, the official figures show that Covid rates are worse in England than they are in the other two countries. However, one in twenty is bad, as bad as I can remember it being for Scotland and Wales and so it seems to me that the debate to be had is that, while England are in a worse place than us, does the slightly better infection rate justify the restrictions imposed by the Welsh and Scottish Governments? For myself, I was against the closing of sports stadia in particular and I’ve not seen anything in the last fortnight to change my opinion.

Good post. For me, the difference isn't significant enough and I haven't supported the restrictions this time around. I've written enough as to my reasons why and it's not because I can't go to the football (though of course, that's p*ssed me off).