Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister

[jon1959]

Re: Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister

labour aren't picking up the deserting Tory voters though, they are going from Tory to "don't know", which suggests that many of them will return once Boris has been removed

That was true up until early December - when Labour were getting narrow leads in most polls. Since then the pollsters have seen clear evidence of Tory to Labour switches - both ex Red Wall voters and also some more traditional southern Tory voters (along with switches to the Lib Dems).

I'm no fan of Starmer and have parted company with the Labour Party (although it is very difficult to resign - they still record me as a member 3-4 months after I quit) but I do think a tipping point has been passed. The odds are heavily against Johnson surviving as Tory leader and Prime Minister for the rest of this year.

I can't see Labour beating the Tories given recent history, but I can see the Tories beating the Tories and Labour coming through by default.

A new Tory leader will produce a 'new manager bounce' but none of the potential candidates have the ability or experience or charisma needed, and some are totally toxic even to die hard Tory members. Johnson expelled most of the real talent over Brexit.

Mind you Starmer managed to push out a third of Labour's members in less than 2 years - including the youngest and most active ones - so some of the most effective opposition is online, in single issue campaigns and in other non-traditional places.

[Dorcus]

Re: Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister

That was true up until early December - when Labour were getting narrow leads in most polls. Since then the pollsters have seen clear evidence of Tory to Labour switches - both ex Red Wall voters and also some more traditional southern Tory voters (along with switches to the Lib Dems).

I'm no fan of Starmer and have parted company with the Labour Party (although it is very difficult to resign - they still record me as a member 3-4 months after I quit) but I do think a tipping point has been passed. The odds are heavily against Johnson surviving as Tory leader and Prime Minister for the rest of this year.

I can't see Labour beating the Tories given recent history, but I can see the Tories beating the Tories and Labour coming through by default.

A new Tory leader will produce a 'new manager bounce' but none of the potential candidates have the ability or experience or charisma needed, and some are totally toxic even to die hard Tory members. Johnson expelled most of the real talent over Brexit.

Mind you Starmer managed to push out a third of Labour's members in less than 2 years - including the youngest and most active ones - so some of the most effective opposition is online, in single issue campaigns and in other non-traditional places.

If Labour are canny they'll start thinking about planning tactical voting campaigns with the Lib Dems and Greens well before an election comes into sight. It's probably the essential step to ensure the Tories are ousted. Once that hurdle has been overcome it will allow Labour longer term planning to make itself more distinctive. However, I think the far sighted plan would be to encourage the adoption of proportional representation.

[jon1959]

Re: Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister

If Labour are canny they'll start thinking about planning tactical voting campaigns with the Lib Dems and Greens well before an election comes into sight. It's probably the essential step to ensure the Tories are ousted. Once that hurdle has been overcome it will allow Labour longer term planning to make itself more distinctive. However, I think the far sighted plan would be to encourage the adoption of proportional representation.

80% of Constituency Labour Parties backed the PR resolution at the September 2021 Labour Conference.

It was defeated.

The majority of affiliates (mainly trades unions - but others too) voted against.

There was no support from the party leadership, despite Starmer's pledge during the leadership election campaign. Another of his broken promises!

https://labourlist.org/2021/09/conference-rejects-motion-committing-labour-to-proportional-representation/

Most recent YouGov polling shows 42% public support for PR (up to 62% among Labour voters). That is without any recent noticeable national campaign to make the case.

[Dorcus]

Re: Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister

80% of Constituency Labour Parties backed the PR resolution at the September 2021 Labour Conference.

It was defeated.

The majority of affiliates (mainly trades unions - but others too) voted against.

There was no support from the party leadership, despite Starmer's pledge during the leadership election campaign. Another of his broken promises!

https://labourlist.org/2021/09/conference-rejects-motion-committing-labour-to-proportional-representation/

Most recent YouGov polling shows 42% public support for PR (up to 62% among Labour voters). That is without any recent noticeable national campaign to make the case.

Yes it seems there's an awful long way to go. Maybe we should have Dominic Cummings driving a big red bus to sell the campaign to the public. 😁

[A Quiet Monkfish]

Re: Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister

Not being the Conservative party will do for me for now.

Exactly. It will all fade into the distance - cheese, wine, Cummings, who said what, who knew what - and folk will look at Labour in 2024 and say 'no thanks'. Assuming the Tories can deal with the economic problems ahead, of course.

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister

Exactly. It will all fade into the distance - cheese, wine, Cummings, who said what, who knew what - and folk will look at Labour in 2024 and say 'no thanks'. Assuming the Tories can deal with the economic problems ahead, of course.

You really think people will be more concerned with economics than their memories of Covid in two years time? All I can say is I hope and trust you’re wrong.

[A Quiet Monkfish]

Re: Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister

You really think people will be more concerned with economics than their memories of Covid in two years time? All I can say is I hope and trust you’re wrong.

I certainly think 'partygate' will feel insignificant in two years time. Covid, probably not but I don't think that will decide the next election.

[Dorcus]

Re: Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister

I certainly think 'partygate' will feel insignificant in two years time. Covid, probably not but I don't think that will decide the next election.

The deep and long lasting cost of living crisis might though. And I'm sure you'd agree there's still plenty more time for many more Tory f**k ups!

[jon1959]

Re: Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister

The latest YouGov poll was done well before today's 'defeated' pool interview with Beth Rigby for Sky and all the other broadcasters. The verdict from across the press and much of the politicals and commentators of all colours was 'end game'!

64% of Britons now think Johnson should stand down, up from 48% in November

Should remain: 20% (-11)
Should stand down: 64% (+16)

I think he could still wriggle out of this - but the wriggle room is shrinking very fast!

[A Quiet Monkfish]

Re: Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister

The deep and long lasting cost of living crisis might though. And I'm sure you'd agree there's still plenty more time for many more Tory f**k ups!

No doubt. There's not much in the way of common sense and genuine political conviction in the Labour party. However there's even less amongst the Tories. To say I have little faith in them would be putting it extremely mildly !

[ninian opinian]

Re: Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister

Boris “nobody told me Johnson” is not the problem. The people who put him in power knew he was catastrophically ill-equipped for any kind of responsibility never mind run a country.

They'll still all be there next week. We need a general election now.

[ninian opinian]

Re: Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister

This may have been posted elsewhere but this is very funny and brutal https://twitter.com/bydonkeys/status...944671746?s=21

[jon1959]

Re: Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister

Edit - duplicate 'Led By Donkey' clip!

[ninian opinian]

Re: Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister

Edit - duplicate 'Led By Donkey' clip!

This monologue by James O’Brien is worth a listen too https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1483400025581531136?s=21

[Dorcus]

Re: Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister

This monologue by James O’Brien is worth a listen too https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1483400025581531136?s=21

Very incisive; a masterful delivery.