Quote Originally Posted by Taunton Blue Genie View Post
I have always thought (and mentioned it on here already) that the likelihood is that if does invade then Russia they will probably occupy and take control of only part of The Ukraine. A line drawn from the northern end of Transnistria (itself a breakaway/rogue entity of Moldova and under Russian influence) to Kharkov in the east defines an ethno-political-linguistic divide - and the region below that line is the more likely target for Russia, particularly the region east of the Dnieper. Surely they won't risk occupying the area north of that line, which would end up with endless hostility and guerilla action from the pro-west Ukranian-speaking population there.
Yes, I think that is more likely, and whilst there is zero justification for it from our perspective, there is an argument Russia is 'protecting' ethnic and linguistic Russians, which do number in the millions in eastern Ukraine. It would also strengthen Russia in terms of land and population (not that they really need that) and weaken Ukraine. Also, would the west have the fight in them for an all-out war with a nuclear power for a relatively small part of the Ukraine that does to some extent feel Russian anyway?

There's some similarities with the German occupation of Sudetenland in 1938, not that I think Russia now is remotely comparable to Germany in 1938.