Reply With QuoteWhich side do you think should back down?Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish
| + Visit Cardiff FC for Latest News, Transfer Gossip, Fixtures and Match Results |
From the distance of over a century it's difficult to understand how the conflict on the western front remained in a perpetual stalemate for 4 years. Truth is, neither side could afford to lose.
With Ukraine showing signs of not just being able to withstand Russian aggression, but beginning to think they are getting the upper hand - certainly in terms of military hardware - we now have Ukraine going on the offensive :
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61124291
Russia isn't going to back down. Ukraine isn't going to back down. Neither side can win, neither side can lose. It's the worst case scenario.
Which side do you think should back down?
'should' ? Well Russia morally, but either side backing down is going to better than the alternative.
I think the lesson and not just from the Great War, is that it is a lot easier to start a war than end it. The aggressors are always seduced by battle plans that offer great victories. Both sides are probably keen for peace, Putin to demonstrate that the loss of Russian blood and now ship was worthwhile otherwise he is vulnerable and Ukraine to stop the destruction of its land. The former, which started with regime change, wants enough territory to declare victory on far reduced terms. The latter wants to declare that its borders are still integral and will remain so.
Tough deal to crack without the battlefield being the decider.
The world is one stray missile away from apocalypse.
If Ukraine "backs down" they lose their country and their freedom. Obviously, something a lot of them think is worth fighting until the end for.
Exactly!
Wouldn’t anyone
and long may they continue
Slava ukraini
This is an interesting take on the war - and perhaps a bit more nuanced that we normally hear. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mu19_rlwHgY
"Video Unavailable" Putin got to it before I could..
Spot on. It has all the hallmarks of a war that could drag on and on.
The quickest route out is probably for Ukraine to offer up (in one way or other) the eastern parts of Ukraine. It goes without saying that this is not a morally acceptable solution for them. It remains the quickest route out of this war though.
I didn't understand Russia's position on going for Kiev (hubris presumably, perhaps mixed with a desire for chaos) but they will be perfectly content sat in eastern Ukraine. The shock is done, the west havent intervened, in time people will buy their oil and gas and they will effectively control a large part of Ukraine.
An alternative is that they or the people there lose the will to fight, Ukraine offers some kind of cast iron guarantee not to join Nato, and Russia can spin that as a victory and pull out having achieved that and claiming to have stood up for Russians interest in eastern Ukraine etc etc etc.
‘Great’ War? Are people still referring to it as that?
From various sources I have accessed and which have dealt with Putin's mindset and history it's not necessarily a case of Putin wanting peace at this stage. He seems to want to make the biggest land-grab possible and although he has experienced a setback regarding Kiev/Kyiv it's seemingly not the case that Ukraine can fend off the Russians further east and along much of the Black Sea coast.
Strange. Works on all my devices. Let's give it another go and via a different type of link:
I don't think they will be in a position to 'offer up' areas that will eventually be occupied by Russia - unless you mean official recognition by Ukraine that the areas in question now belong to Russia. My take in all this is that Putin will cease the war when they have settled on as big a chunk of Ukraine that they are confident can control and/or occupy long-term - although they will settle for less than they had initially hoped for. Unlike in western countries, the control of the state media and the population in Russia means that public reaction to the war in Russia is largely insignificant in comparison with Putin's aims and what he is prepared to settle for. We live in hope that the oligarchs who initially put him in power can hold some sway with him, of course.
The lesson for all don't become too heavily reliant with countries such as Russia / Saudi .
Germany/ Europe please note .
Lastly don't give up your Nuclear weapons or trust those who advised you too if you joined their club ?? ( membership still outstanding since 2014)
Yes, I mean the quickest way out of it all is for Ukraine to give up it's claim on eastern Ukraine. I say that merely to illustrate that there are no simple routes out of this, as that plainly is not going to happen.
The best we (in the west) can probably hope for is some kind of prolonged stalemate that at least allows the economies and societies of both countries to get back to some kind of normality.
That is the easy way to end it, but it rewards the aggressor. Russia might have sanctions now, but it will be hard for countries to keep that up if the war is over, and they've gained considerable territory. It's only a plaster, Putin will come again knowing that it's worth it (confirming what happened in Georgia and Crimea), and it would be the end of Ukraine eventually.
It's got to be done the long, hard and unpleasant way. Russia have to lose.
I agree - I'm just saying, that is probably the easiest way out of it.
Ukraine doesn't have a 'claim' for eastern Ukraine: by definition, eastern Ukraine belongs to Ukraine.
In my opinion, I would be surprised if Zelensky is prepared to agree for part of his sovereign state to be officially ceded to Russia and to officially become part of that sovereign state for perpituity. I could be wrong, of course.
As I eluded to, Zelensky is becoming more confident that with the West's support Ukraine can thwart Russia. Militarily, Russia has the greater strength, but as they're the 'away' side [sounds glib, I know], they're pretty much even.
From what I read and listen to, they are not 'even' at all - and Eastern Ukraine is a different kettle of fish to Kyiv and other areas that have been successfully been defended by the Ukranians hitherto.
Posting Permissions