Reply With QuoteAppreciate it’s a by-election but a 30% swing is big.Originally Posted by the other bob wilson
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Thought they were going to scrape home in the West Country.
Appreciate it’s a by-election but a 30% swing is big.
Don't understand why it wasn't even bigger defeats, I mean who are still voting tory after everything they've seen or are 30% of the country just permanently deluded no matter what.
The problem is Labour are garbage as well I’d never vote for them under the current leadership
True, I certainly won't be voting for them unless they show policies that actually help workers and the vulnerable, so so tired of the status quo.
Even if they show policies that help workers and the vulnerable ( to be fair the minimum wage is a good thing) it doesn’t mean they are going to implement them once elected.
I makes you wonder but it was biggest ever majority to be overturned in a UK by-election.
It's a good result for Labour because it's on a swing which would see them forming a majority Government at the next general election, but there are definite comparisons to be made between Johnson's junta and the Major Government between 92 and 97, yet it seems to me that Labour doesn't feel like a Government in waiting under Starmer in the way it did under Blair in the nineties. Labour really do need to make it clearer what they stand for under Starmer, they had a good start with a windfall tax that the Tories nicked, but, for me, they're making a big mistake if they're thinking that the seats they need to become either a majority or minority Government are going to just fall into their laps on the back of Conservative unpopularity.
That said, it's a disastrous night for the Tories made worse this morning by the resignation of one of their main culture warriors, Oliver Dowden amid talk of someone having to take responsibility for what's going wrong. Any other Prime Minister would be long gone by now, but this one will have to be forced out and it would appear that his ploy of trying to make out there was some sort of change of Government in 2019 is, thankfully, not working. We've had twelve years of rule by this mob and the overriding feeling I have at this stage is that the UK is going to the dogs under policies which, apart from Brexit under Cameron and May, Johnson would have voted in line with the Government on all of the things that have led to increasing poverty and a lower life expectancy figure.
You say 'it's a good result for Labour' but they performed very poorly in the Honiton and Tiverton by-election
Dropped to third place with a paltry 3.7% of the vote from 19.5% last time out.
I wasn't referring to Honiton and Tiverton because, like the Lib Dems in Wakefield, their candidacy was just a token effort there. I'm hopeful that the voters are ahead of the parties in this as it seems to me that Labour's insistence in fielding a candidate in every GB seat would cost them dear, but perhaps the public are bringing about the sort of Labour/Lib Dem cooperation that I'm fairly sure would beat this Government even if the Labour party in particular are not willing to entertain it on a formal basis.
I would have expected more than a 'token effort' in a by-election where Labour had 19.5% of the vote last time out.
Yes, Johnson and Starmer have one thing in common, and it begins with W and ends with F.
Labour came second in 2019 as well, but I think expecting west country voters to switch from Tory to Labour is a bit like asking people in the Rhondda to switch from Labour to Tory, it's a step too far for many, whereas the Lib Dem's success in the south west prior to their coalition with the Conservatives was proof that the switch from Conservative to Lib Dem was one that could be made - realistically, I'd have thought the only places in Devon and Cornwall that Labour could have hopes of winning are the cities like Plymouth and Exeter.
I would be as worried if I was Labour than if I was Tory .
Liberals for decades have done well in By Election as the floating voter lashes out at a Government , and could move back to Tories if Boris went .
The calculation Lib's / Lab will face now is how they will face questions on Europe , nod and wink voting cooperation in some seats , some voters don't like that as your not getting what you vote for ..
Re entering the single market currency , immigration, strikes , cost of living will also be played out to death.... and big tax cuts are on the horizon next year with the strap line " these are affordable due to our prudence ""
Will Sir Kier and Boris be there , there are rumblings of a snap election as Johnston see's a potential leadership challenge next year anyways , we could end up with Angela Rayner v Nadine Dorries , now I'd buy front row tickets for that mud wrestle ??
The Lib Dems hoovered up wholesale what were previously Labour voters too though.
Candidates for all the main political parties are now vetted at central office level, so voting for them is pretty pointless.
Bad night for the Tories, but I don't think they will be tremendously surprised. Wakefield totally expected but the Tiverton loss is worse than expected though and will raise alarm bells in Conservative HQ.. Labour will probably be a little wary too, as their vote collapsed - no doubt they don't mind on this occasion, but a resurgent Lib Dems would pose concerns elsewhere. As with all by-elections mind, it's probably not worth over-analysing it.
It didn't collapse, the voting was coordinated to defeat the Tories.
Yes, but you are missing my point - it went in favour of the Lib Dems (which on this occasion I know Labour are happy with) but it does give wind in their sails, which may not be positive long term for them. The loser here is the Tories, I'm just saying, the best night was had by the Lib Dems overall.
There were massive campaigns to vote Labour in Wakefield and Lib Dem in Tiverton. All these results tell us is the people are sick of the Tories.
Dowden's going so quickly and his resignation letter which expresses no loyalty to the PM makes me wonder if he was one of the 148 in in the confidence vote.
The only problem is all the favourites to take over from Boris are clones of Boris, so it would just be more of the same. Ditto if Starmer became PM.
Well, I’d say that was because the Lib Dems were the choice of the tactical voters as they were held to be the party more likely to beat the Conservatives. What I would say though is that the Lib Dems were very effective in getting the notion that they were the only alternatives to the Tories out there very quickly.
I don't think Labour will be overly unhappy at the Tiverton result. They will be cock a hoop that this is another mail in the Tory coffin. We are getting to the point where tactical voting doesn't need to be hugely coordinated for Tory deselection to happen.
I'm sure both Labour and the Lib Dems realise that at the present time tactical voting is the only way to unseat the Tories given the structure of the First Past The Post System. For both parties and the country as a whole to benefit they understand the priority is to remove the Tory government first.
It could be argued that tactical votes should have gone to the opposition party that were second last time out and not to a party that was given little chance of winning the seat a while ago. Yes, it's clearly not 'Labour' country down here but I think the party still suffers from a major malaise away from its core areas of support.
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