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In fairness, I regretted that example about five minutes and 1 second after writing it!Originally Posted by Dorcus
GDP growth has been higher at times post- COVID than our European neighbours because we fell a lot more during COVID than anyone else, so if you look at a snapshot it can look as though we are doing better, but it isn't correct.
So when you said that you had seen first hand the mess EU Regs have caused the UK, what you really meant was that when this logistics company was inside the EU single market and customs union everything seemed seamless.
However, since the oven ready deal was implemented the company had to write massive amounts of code on the internal logistics system to try and get to a point where trucks got through customs checks as quick as possible given the barriers that the deal we agreed to leave the EU allowed?
But somehow this is down to EU legislation? Have you really understood the purpose of the change contract you were working on?
It would be great if you could express your own opinion on a topic for once, instead of constantly having a go at everybody else. It's incredibly boring and fatiguing in equal measures. I know you were brought up in Abersomewhere, but that's no excuse for this kind of behaviour.
Err no not quite. If the UK negotiators had actually wanted to get a better deal they would have / should have negotiated for one. Rather than settle for what they did.
What are you thoughts on the EU stance with regards to GDPR and where it tried to place the UK post Brexit ?
Let's try to explain this as succinctly as I can. The only deals that would have stopped the logistics company having to implement new software were ones that kept the UK in the single market/customs union. The harder the Brexit the greater the trade friction between a non-EU member country and the EU single market.
The downside of this close relationship was it diminished the ability of the UK to negotiate deals with the brave new world. There was a fallacy doing the rounds for years that the UK could have its cake and eat it. The EU would have been bonkers to give the UK a competitive advantage of being able to trade on equal terms in the single market, deregulate so its businesses were at a disadvantage and still seek trade deals with the rest of the world.
In the end the UK moved to Boris Johnson's oven ready deal negotiated by Lord Frost. It was a hard Brexit of a type rarely mentioned before the referendum. If was the first trade deal ever to introduce rather than remove trade friction.
Are you saying that the deal negotiated didn't go far enough (meaning more friction) and there should have been far more alignment with the single market/customs union (meaning less)?
As for the GDPR reference I don't have a scoobie about what you are talking about.
Still.....good that you seem to have found anew chum
Succinct - and then you blurt all that out ..
Nice to see you using the Cathy Newman approach of "So are you saying that" , I'll leave it there - enjoy your Friday night
I said, as succinctly as I can. Lot easier to try some deflection nonsense than debate and respond I guess.
Anytime you could express your own opinion on a topic for once instead of having a go at everybody else then fill your boots on the Brexit deal and the GDPR.
Word to the wise though, some of your mates find that kind of thing incredibly boring and fatiguing in equal measures. So just be careful they don't log on when you least expect!
Boris Johnson’s new deal takes the whole country out of the EU as one United Kingdom. It takes us out of the customs union, allowing us to set our own tariffs and do our own trade deals. It allows us to pass our own laws and ensures that it is our courts that enforce them. Our deal is the only one on the table. It is signed, sealed and ready. It puts the whole country on a path to a new free trade agreement with the EU. This will be a new relationship based on free trade and friendly cooperation, not on the EU’s treaties or EU law. There will be no political alignment with the EU. We will keep the UK out of the single market, out of any form of customs union, and end the role of the European Court of Justice. This future relationship will be one that allows us to:You can start with the unelected PM who is following an entirely different agenda to what was in the manifesto way back when. Boris did his bit before jumping ship, and we will soon have a handover to Starmer. Unfortunately, people like you will be none the wiser. You talk a good game, but your tactical knowledge is terrible
Take back control of our laws.
Take back control of our money.
Control our own trade policy.
Introduce an Australian-style points based immigration system.
Raise standards in areas like workers’ rights, animal welfare, agriculture and the environment.
Ensure we are in full control of our fishing waters. We will negotiate a trade agreement next year – one that will strengthen our Union – and we will not extend the implementation period beyond December 2020.
In parallel, we will legislate to ensure high standards of workers’ rights, environmental protection and consumer rights. The only way to deliver Brexit is with a Conservative majority in Parliament.
This was the manifesto way back when. Which bits do you think the Conservative government 2019 to date has let you strategists down on?
And here he is, the man who knows what everyone else doesn’t. For example, the effects of COVID and Ukraine are only been felt in the UK.
Where have I said that? What I've posted is actual real data. Why would you dismiss that? Do facts not matter anymore? If something has "failed" as your man Farage says (or in fact didn't say in this case) then would we not be seeing this quite clearly in GDP growth figures, unemployment, stock markets, wages and all the rest of it?
You have the opportunity here to have me over a barrel. I am saying 2023 is the year we can really tell. So bookmark this and see where we're are in 10 months or so once full year 2023 data is out.
Failed in his narrow view of it , dont worry Sir Keir has a plan , unless the JC returns and sits on his hands about Europe..
What we do no as a ( fact ) its not be momentous or catastrophic as some suggested .
Billy Liar is back with his selective, one-eyed bullshit.
You have no expertise here. Stop posting this misleading tripe.
Everyone has had to deal with the consequences of Covid and Ukraine, so what is wrong with current comparisons? Why do we have to wait for 2023 figures?
You can if you like! I have already mentioned the full 2022 data and the Q1 GDP growth for 2023. But I also think RJK makes a fair point about Covid and we all know the war in Ukraine also has a huge impact on countries economies, and not in a uniform way.
As such, 2023 is perhaps the first time we can start to properly see how countries are performing, as Covid drifts into the distance and the war in Ukraine at least stabilises. Let's hope this remains the case.
Nonetheless, if you want the GDP data for 2022, it's here in the latest IMF Economic Outlook, dated April 2023 on page 9 of the report (which is page 29 of the pdf for some reason)
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/...ook-april-2023
In lists the full year growth figures for advanced economies in 2022, which are as follows:
USA: 2.1%
Euro Area 3.5%
Germany 1.8%
France 2.6%
Italy 3.7%
Spain 5.5%
Japan 1.1%
UK 4.0%
Canada 3.4%
Other Advanced Economies 2.6%
Now I will happily state that 2022 (or 2021 or 2020) were not normal years, but if you want the latest data then that's it above, as provided by the IMF.
as you appear to use the IMF data alot James here is another from them in terms of the future
World's biggest economies in 2028, projected by IMF.
���� United States: $32.3 trillion
���� China: $27.4 trillion
���� India: $5.5 trillion
���� Japan: $5.3 trillion
���� Germany: $5 trillion
���� United Kingdom: $4.2 trillion
���� France: $3.3 trillion
���� Brazil: $2.7 trillion
���� Canada: $2.6 trillion
���� Italy: $2.4 trillion
���� Russia: $2.2 trillion
���� South Korea: $2.1 trillion
���� Indonesia: $2 trillion
���� Australia: $2 trillion
���� Mexico: $2 trillion
���� Spain: $1.7 trillion
���� Turkey: $1.3 trillion
���� Netherlands: $1.2 trillion
���� Saudi Arabia: $1.2 trillion
���� Switzerland: $1.1 trillion
���� Poland: $1 trillion
���� Taiwan: $0.99 trillion
���� Nigeria: $0.9 trillion
���� Thailand: $0.7 trillion
���� Ireland: $0.7 trillion
���� Bangladesh: $0.7 trillion
���� Vietnam: $0.7 trillion
���� Argentina: $0.7 trillion
my question is how can they project this ? alot can happen in 5 years
Well, it's an educated guess, but it is guesswork. There's obvious factors that no one can factor in, but I think there's a general understanding that certain economies may grow 1-2% a year. Some may grow 3-4% some may grow 5-6% etc, so a rough estimate can be made on that. Trying to provide anything much more accurate than that is essentially impossible, and they do get it wrong often, understandably so.
What is important, in my opinion, is to pay more attention to facts than predictions. Just as the final league table is more important than the Championship odds William Hill produces in the summer before the season starts.
say we have another pandemic again ?
CBDC is now coming in to effect in the next few years along with social credit aligned with this across the world ( thanks Klaus )
Biden seems intent on a war with Ukraine or should i say his handlers are
AI will be almost fully operational by 2028
you mentioned growth see below again from the IMF
2023-2028 World Economy Growth Contribution
����China → 22.6%
����India → 12.9%
����US → 11.3%
����Indonesia → 3.6%
����Germany → 2.1%
����Turkey → 2.1%
����Japan → 1.8%
����Brazil → 1.7%
����Egypt → 1.7%
����Russia → 1.6%
����Bangla'h → 1.6%
����Vietnam → 1.6%
����UK → 1.5%
����France → 1.5%
It's always interesting when you move away from your trusted Trading Economics website. Perhaps in this instance the first quarter 2022 growth for the UK of 10.6% that was the residue of the recovery from the biggest slide in the G7 being stripped out of the Year on Year GDP figures didn't paint quite the picture you wanted. A bit like looking at the league table at Christmas instead of the end of March.
And as facts go. We are still the only G7 country still to recover our GDP to a position it was pre-pandemic aren't we?
https://tradingeconomics.com/
Why wouldnt we trust a website that collects and presents official statistics? Seems a better basis for a debate than an interview with Nigel Farage (that also misrepresented what he said) doesn't it?
I have quite clearly stated that 2020, 2021 and 2022 data is beset by the problems caused by Covid and Ukraine. Do you want me to say that again? When I did say that, I was asked what is wrong with existing data (presumably for 2022, I guess?) so I presented that and provided a link to an IMF report and then others moan about that!
None of this stuff, however you look at it, points to the abject failure and disaster that you want to think is happening, although yes, due to a much larger collapse in 2020 we are, I believe the only G7 country not to rise above our GDP from before the pandemic.
Do you agree that notwithstanding another year like the last three, that 2023 may prove to be the first year since leaving the EU that starts to provide a better picture of things?
https://www.resolutionfoundation.org...-decade-ahead/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64450882
https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/th...s/#assumptions
https://www.economicsobservatory.com...ment-in-the-uk
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/24/e...omy/index.html
https://www.ft.com/content/e39d0315-...0-04bb786f2c13
I'll stop at six, but there's plenty more.
In fairness I never mentioned Farage, who thinks Brexit could still be great if it was implemented along his lines and by competent people like him. That his vision looks remarkably like the Kwarteng budget tells its own story.
I simply asked why you discarded the most up to date stats from your favourite website showing year on year GDP growth as soon as you open the page in favour of finding something on Page 29 of a pdf on a different site.
I don't agree that you can discount the last three years of data in favour of a year zero approach. Four G7 countries were impacted by Brexit in addition to Covid and Ukraine/Energy Crisis as friction was introduced in trading relationships with one of them. Only that one is yet to return to the level of output where officially leaving the EU and those rules applying and Covid kicking in started. Surely a sceptical mind like yours would question the reason why.
Of course there is. There's a tonne of articles like that pumped out almost daily. Very few of which actually calmly look at data comparing the UK to our peers in a calm and rational way. The real data there is that in 2022 our GDP growth was higher, unemployment lower, stock market higher, wages to inflation better (but still poor) etc etc. That's the reality, and yes much of the media is not telling you the full story at all
Lot of people I know have had wage rises and members of my family got jobs due to less Eastern European labour which in all honesty kept wages down and UK residents out work , particularly young lads and folk over 50 .
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