Given we have the tie breaker over Croatia, and unless I'm mistaken Croatia has the tiebreaker over Turkey by virtue of their winning margin being bigger than Turkey's in the two games they've played.
Should we beat Turkey by just a goal, and Turkey have the tie break over us, then I think we'd still be looking at the playoffs due to Turkey owning the tiebreak against us. This looks an extremely tall order, we're effectively going to have to beat Armenia, and beat Turkey by 3 goals unless Croatia drop points.
From the Euro 2020 qualifying but believe it's the same criteria for 2024:
https://www.standard.co.uk/sport/foo...s-b941447.html