Originally Posted by
JamesWales
Spot on really. I suppose to add to the mix is the nature of the by-elections, which are often called after a death and the nature of the previous incumbents also don't help.
Labour are absolutely on course for victory. Not by the swings here..both these seats will likely go back the other way, but Starmer is doing very well.
It's interesting how he nullifies opposition. There isn't really much criticism coming from the opposition now - he's not talking about Brexit, the more divisive cultural issues etc and he is not offering any notable change of course on the economy etc.
On the left, you will always get people who think the Labour leader isn't left-wing enough, but he is largely ignoring them. I think his biggest risk is if Corbyn created any formal or informal opposition, which I think is unlikely, but I guess that would take 10% off his vote. That said, he would probably gain half of that back in people glad to see them formally out of the party too.
He's riding the wave and benefitting from it. But that's not a criticism of him at all. It's absolutely sensible. If the tide is taking you in anyway, why waste your energy rowing?
It's not over and I do think polls will narrow somewhat but I think people just want a change of govt really, and naturally so.
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