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There seems to have been a lot of speculation amongst Cardiff fans on various social media channels that we are going to bring in a number of new players and push the boat out in January.
It'll be the first transfer window in a while where we can actually spend any money, so you can understand the anticipation.
However, despite not being able to spend transfer or loan fees in the last 2 windows, I doubt we've built up a significant war chest - I don't remember our last accounts being anything to write home about and the wages for some of our frees and loans will have been hefty you'd have thought.
Also, while we are still within touching distance of the playoffs, there is no guarantee that we will make it, and automatic is out of the equation already - if we did make the playoffs we wouldn't be the favourites to go through either, with one of the current top 4 being most likely.
I think we've also seen enough to suggest we shouldn't be in any danger of going down too though.
So say we spend a few million to strengthen the side, and that gives us a 75% chance of making the playoffs (which i think is pretty generous) - then if the 4 playoff teams were evenly matched we'd have a 25% chance of winning it, so a .75 x .25 chance of promotion.
Unfortunately I think there is likely to be 2 sides at least that are stronger than us, in that playoff mix (if we made it)
So plucking a number out of the air - say that gives us a 15% chance of winning the playoffs (again generous I think) our chances of promotion with spending become .75 x .15 = approximately 11 %.
So we'd be investing in something that had a 89% chance of not happening.
Of course players we'd be looking to bring in would also be here next season and beyond - but a lot of the players we are linked with are close to or beyond 30.
Take Kieffer Moore for example - quality player at this level undoubtedly and would definitely improve us. He's 31 now and will be 32 in the summer. He COULD go on to his late 30s at a high level like Zlatan for example - alternatively his levels could drop off a cliff anytime as with many other players. If we write off this season as being unlikely to win promotion (based on the 11% chance) then we'd be getting a full season next year, sure - could we really count on another? It might be basically 1 season that the investment will have any utility for us - which makes it basically akin to a loan transfer - and how much would we want to pay for that kind of transfer - a couple of million tops? Would Bournemouth want to let him go for that amount? probably better to keep him around where h might score the odd goal off the bench?
Of course if we are bringing in players with the potential to increase in value, younger talented players then there is a much better case to spend some money, but I haven't seen us linked with anyone who fits that profile.
It'll be the first transfer window in a while where we can actually spend any money, so you can understand the anticipation.
However, despite not being able to spend transfer or loan fees in the last 2 windows, I doubt we've built up a significant war chest - I don't remember our last accounts being anything to write home about and the wages for some of our frees and loans will have been hefty you'd have thought.
Also, while we are still within touching distance of the playoffs, there is no guarantee that we will make it, and automatic is out of the equation already - if we did make the playoffs we wouldn't be the favourites to go through either, with one of the current top 4 being most likely.
I think we've also seen enough to suggest we shouldn't be in any danger of going down too though.
So say we spend a few million to strengthen the side, and that gives us a 75% chance of making the playoffs (which i think is pretty generous) - then if the 4 playoff teams were evenly matched we'd have a 25% chance of winning it, so a .75 x .25 chance of promotion.
Unfortunately I think there is likely to be 2 sides at least that are stronger than us, in that playoff mix (if we made it)
So plucking a number out of the air - say that gives us a 15% chance of winning the playoffs (again generous I think) our chances of promotion with spending become .75 x .15 = approximately 11 %.
So we'd be investing in something that had a 89% chance of not happening.
Of course players we'd be looking to bring in would also be here next season and beyond - but a lot of the players we are linked with are close to or beyond 30.
Take Kieffer Moore for example - quality player at this level undoubtedly and would definitely improve us. He's 31 now and will be 32 in the summer. He COULD go on to his late 30s at a high level like Zlatan for example - alternatively his levels could drop off a cliff anytime as with many other players. If we write off this season as being unlikely to win promotion (based on the 11% chance) then we'd be getting a full season next year, sure - could we really count on another? It might be basically 1 season that the investment will have any utility for us - which makes it basically akin to a loan transfer - and how much would we want to pay for that kind of transfer - a couple of million tops? Would Bournemouth want to let him go for that amount? probably better to keep him around where h might score the odd goal off the bench?
Of course if we are bringing in players with the potential to increase in value, younger talented players then there is a much better case to spend some money, but I haven't seen us linked with anyone who fits that profile.
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