Reply With QuoteHouthis and Hezbollah joining in as well according to Al Jazeera. Multiple drones and missiles on their way to Israel.
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And so it begins.....
Houthis and Hezbollah joining in as well according to Al Jazeera. Multiple drones and missiles on their way to Israel.
Well Israel have targeted the embassy of a foreign country in Damascus
There are no angels in this crisis but what do Israel expect ?
Just the excuse the Israeli's need to go after Iran's nuclear facilities.
apparently charlotte church got the honour of launching the first drone
The reasons for the Damascus attack have been explained again this evening by the BBC who have also said that this is potentially the most serious situation since the Yom Kippur War of 1973.Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY
Israel is deranged
have i missed something ? who's doing the missile thing
Israel have been justifying their devastation of Gaza as self defence after 7 October, doesn’t this give Iran the chance to claim that what happened overnight is the same thing after what happened to their diplomatic corp?
Maybe so, if Iran wasn't behind Hezbollah (not to mention Hamas), because since October 8 2023 it has fired more than 3,000 rockets at Israeli civilian and military targets from Lebanon. Additionally, the terror group has launched more than 600 anti-tank missiles and drones at Israeli territory. So let's not pretend that the Syria attack from Israel was phase one.
You are the missing link
Basically Israel attacked and killed an Iranian General and several innocent people in a foreign embassy in Syria
Israel acts like there is no international law but crys when they get attacked
As far as I am concerned it was payback
It is never possible to argue this subject with anyone on a sensible basis here in the UK, Europe or the US because of the political and religious divide:
- Aetheists and Islamics (typically pro Palestinian) versus Jews and Christians (typically pro Israel)
- Political (Nationalists & Left, typically pro-Palestinian and anti-imperial, versus Conservatives, typically Imperialist or Zionist sympathies)
My personal view is that the subject is too complex for most folk to understand, nor be interested in. But it is a fascinating one. To understand this subject well, you need an understanding of history, geo-politics (regional and strategic global alliances), energy markets, local issues and conflicts, nuclear objectives of middle east countries, and financing of militias.
If you are coming in from the religious/political angles above it is easy to see why people cannot see what is happening, nor even predict it. I have predicted a regional war to my friends since the first Houthi attack on ships in the Suez back in end of Oct / start November, and made a good sum on oil and gold trading, as a result.
This is why I am surprised at what is happening today is a surprise to people. It is possible, with an open mind, with a few weeks of reading to get a good handle on it all, but people prefer to “stay in their lane” and wave a flag. So as explaining all the above will take far too long, the only sensible thing to discuss is “What Now?” and “What Next?”
What is the current situation?
Well Iran have been financing Houthis, Lebanon, Syrian and Iraqi militias with the reversal of the oil embargo, with the 16bn dollars Biden gave back to them. Now Iran has designs on Middle East dominance, but are experts in financing and using others to do their fighting. They are master diplomats through history and this is their approach (similar to China). They don’t do open scrapping unless dragged into it directly (Iran v Iraq). They are excellent strategists.
But as Hamas were eliminated and Yemeni infrastructure destroyed, Iran knew that a far richer Hezbollah were the next Israeli target. So as of last night, Iran have attacked WITH Hezbollah and other operatives, due to the attack on the embassy. Justified? Probably. But this is the the crossing of the rubicon because this is the first point that Iran has dropped the mask. It is now out and out Iran v Israel - a situation they tried to avoid.
What does that mean?
Well given that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard explicitly wants to “eliminate Israel from the map”, and Israel sees Iran as the regional threat, unless there is a ceasefire we now have an open straight fight. They are both committed to eliminating each other. That is the short term phase we have now entered.
What Next?
The choices facing us are now close to the same as WWII. It seems that aside from an unlikely ceasefire, four sceanrios are on the table:
1. Do little. Let Iran and Israel duke it out. This would mean a drawn out war between two rich rivals, and further disruption of oil markets, and rising inflation (and thus interest rates) - no doubt with financial and military support from their masters (US/Europe for Israel, China/Russia and Lebanon, Syria, Yemen for Iran, who are already allies.
2. A further escalation regionally, where lines between Sunni and Shia muslims are dran. With Israel, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi, Oman and Egypt versus Israel, with Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and a big sect of Iraq. A full regional war, with even bigger hits on inflation and interest rates.
3. Europe and US conduct an all out attack on Iran, but Russia and China, more focused on Ukraine and Taiwan, conserve their money and allow the US and Europe exhaust itself as it did in World War Two, on the basis that they do not fancy losing a war, military and face over Iran. Russia calculates that it has coped without Iranian oil as it has its own. China already has gas an oil from Russia so they will cope too. So they leave Iran sink or swim and live to fight another day, calculating they can win Ukraine and Taiwan if the US and Europe exhausts itself v Iran.
4. A full phase World War III. China and Russia openly back Iran with full military and financial capability, with all above parties going for it.
Now as I have thought since November, a ceasefire with Hamas nor Iran is feasible. So one of the above is will happen. I think it will be .1 or .3.
If the above happens, and a ceasefire not possible, then as a result the effects will be a scorching upwards of inflation (shipping lanes further hit, costs of food, clothing, commodities rip upwards), and a second run on higher interest rates - as I predicted in 2022/23. But as this will be more drawn out, a longer wave of rate rises, into the 10-15% range. Oil, gas and gold will keep pumping up. Food costs will be harrowing. Bank of England, The Fed and ECB will stop making silly predictions of falling rates, and house prices keep falling. Manufacturing and heavy Industry, reliant on oil, will be hurt. High interest rates due to war debt will put pressure on sterling and Euro, and goverment budgets cut due to high interest rates payments. See the 1970s for similar effects from Yom Kippur war. I also predict further social strife as pro-Iran protesters become prominent, with social division and newswires discussing more anti-Semitism and anti-Muslim sentiment.
All you can do is figure out the probabilities, and then what it means for inflation, interest rates, currencies, stocks, bonds, commodities (energies, metals and food) and gold. Because these will mean big changes. There is nothing we can win from arguing, so is all we can do.
I don't care
This is war
They are al, idiots , fighting each other because their god is better than the opponents god and he gave them that land oh no he didn't oh yes he did
A plague on all their houses
You are now calling down plagues. You are the 'God' upgrade in this situation.
Now we can all relax.
I know God is all bullshit and belief in him is at the core of this complete mess
If I could wipe out the idiots on both sides who fight with guns and bombs instead of their mind I would
Yes we can see that
Correction in point 2 above
CORRECTION 2: With Israel, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi, Oman, Jordan and Egypt versus Israel, with Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and a big sect of Iraqi Shia muslims.
The point here is that Sunnis and Shias hate each other at the power level. So Israel does have Sunni muslim country support.
As to what I would do if I were the West? Well in the short term the highest probability is that Iran says “Israel - we were just warning you, leave us alone”. Israel agrees. Short term dies down and Israel keep focusing on Hamas
But my suspicion is that Hezbollah will then be IDF’s next target and there will come a point where once Yemeni, Hamas and Hezbollah threats are eliminated, then Iran comes into focus again. Because this conflictis baked in to the objectives of Iran and Israel.
Why? Since the 1979 removal of The Shah in Iran, and the crazy Shia muslim wing of leadership installed, The Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRG) has had three stated high level objectives:
1. The elimination of Israel from the map
This will always be resisted by Israel
2. The removal of US and Europe from influence in the Middle East
This is not acceptable to The West or we would lose energy access, all be bankrupt from high interest rates and inflation, and no access to Suez shipping lanes, hitting global trade and ability to defend Mediterranean waters from Russian, Chinese or Iranian naval threats)
3. To spread Shia muslim fundamentalism across the Middle East
This is not acceptable and an existential threat to Sunni muslims in the middle east such as Jordan, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi.
What should we do?
War is clearly not good. But nor is a long term ceasefire possible, with them strategically opposed. My preference is:
1. Re-install Trump’s deal to ban Iran selling oil in open markets: kills their financing. Previously this brought Iran to its economic knees and de-stabilised its leadership. Do this. Enough is enough.
2. US and UK/Europe take out Iranian Revolutionary Guard, currently outside Iran
3. Once financing killed off, and IRG taken out (like with Saddam’s revolutionary guard) the Iranian Shia leadership will be out of money and out of military support and exposed to internal civil war. Financially support a Sunni group of the people to overthrow the Shias, resulting in a progressive Sunni regime, where women’s rights are respected and a more tolerant friendly mixed society and government in operation - as it was pre 1979.
If I were the UK government, I would propose that three step plan to the US and G7 and get cracking. I am no expert, but that seems a plan to re-install long term peace and stability, without direct war. It does risk tension with China and Russia who are backing them, but that tension is there anyway. It is a cheaper way of trying to solve the problem it seems.
Give me the buttonYes we can see that
Thank you for your long, informative posts.
Can you explain this bit above? Why would we lose access to the Suez and impact our energy if we stopped backing Israel?
Let’s not pretend October 7 was either then.
I have observed this to be generally the case but I don’t understand why it is so. Am I being thick here?
No, not thick at all. Unfortunately this +4000 year old conflict can't be fully understood purely via secular history, science and politics. There are kingdoms involved here opposing each other that will continue to do so until the final chapter of human history has been written.
Probably the Red Sea, Arabian Sea routes.
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