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Thread: Iran in direct attack on Israel

  1. #26

    Re: Iran in direct attack on Israel

    Quote Originally Posted by truthpaste View Post
    No, not thick at all. Unfortunately this +4000 year old conflict can't be fully understood purely via secular history, science and politics. There are kingdoms involved here opposing each other that will continue to do so until the final chapter of human history has been written.
    Yes, but I also highlighted in my comments, energy policy and global trade, shipping routes (for navy access & trade), as well as religion (dominant muslim factions such as Shia v Sunni, let alone Arab v Jew) and local tribalism add to it. Hugely complex and hugely unstable by the fact that all these factors are changing month to month, let alone year to year. Anyone who is looking for a Northern Ireland type settlement and think we will "solve" this is either an extreme optimist, an idiot or a liar. In my view, this will always be with us in our lifetime and beyond. The average Joe probably considers the events through what the BBC & Sky News tell them, what their political allegiances tell them to side with, how their friends think, how they feel about religion, or how they feel about humanity. But humanity or "their people" isn't what the people behind this war are thinking, and that is the saddest part.

    The first time I realised it wasn't what the news was telling me, or what was right or wrong, was a book on oil trade and energy market conflict. Like many of us, I suspected that greed was at play, but did not know the how's and why's. The Blair invasion of Iraq around 2003 got my goat, and I started asking questions about it. When a relative of mine who worked at the high end in oil (and was engaged to an American oil 'diplomat') tipped me off I read the book he recommended by an oil-insider and oil analyst. After I read it I was on holiday with him in the Caribbean and he asked what I thought. I said "Sick. Pretty ruthless too.". He said "Yeah, I work in that industry and I keep hearing stories all the time, but my other half's job confirms it. This game is ugly. I will do a few more years, take the money and get out of it and retire." He did.

    When I read that book I was blown away and chased the primary sources, of which one was a gas & oil map of pipelines, as I was learning about doing oil trading back around 2004-2006. As always some pipelines are being built, others in construction, and others in consideration. These days there are several Oil & gas maps online, but you should look at them alongside a normal map and see why some countries will be fought over, and others not. So by looking at the map below you can see how important being friendly to certain countries is, in order to maintain trade and energy stability. Consider the routes to pipe oil and gas from source to European and Asian markets. Consider how military can move their navies. Consider where your goods come from and where they go to be sold. If you have an IQ over 60, you can begin to see where the real motivations are, and why some countries go to war a lot, or why they get special exemptions.

    https://globalenergymonitor.org/proj...r/tracker-map/

    The Suez is important to get oil exports to Europe cheaply. Shipping is always the cheapest form of logistics, over trucking or air freight. Trade also goes through Suez. The US & West need a friendly leader in charge of Egypt and Israel owning that land free of challenge. If so, the Suez should present a fairly friendly path for all global trade to reach US and Europe. Oil can be pumped from Saudi via pipelines through friendly pipelines in friendly countries, or via cargo ships out of Suez. Providing these pipelines for oil and gas are protected, or trade routes through Suez, then inflation stays stable, so should interest rates, and life is The West is easier. If these are threatened the opposite happens. Look at The Suez canal history in 1950s and Yom Kippur War of 1970s, and see the effects on inflation, historic interest rates and our economy if these are not secure. In addition, if Israel lose their territory to Iran, then being next to Egypt, Egypt may also be the next target to fall under Iranian influence, and Shia militias or Muslim Brotherhood people re-emerging inside Egypt, and further trouble for global trade and energy market stability.

    If you want to throw in some leftfield ideas, google the Ben Gurion canal. The Ben Gurion canal was a project in the 1960s where the Israelis wanted to help the West by competing with Suez by having a separate canal. This would make shipping prices more competitive, but also make money for Israel through shipping fees. Some speculate that Israel's recent moves to clear out Gaza Strip is connected to eliminating threats to a renewed Ben Gurion canal project, now that Israel is far richer.

    https://www.newarab.com/news/what-is...y-gaza-matters

    I also speculate (and see it more likely) that Israel sees an opportunity to straighten the Saudi pipeline right through West Bank and out to the sea via Israeli ports. Israel has already made some big gas finds offshore so the port of Haifa and maybe another one will boom in trade soon as refineries refine the stuff nearby. At the moment, it pulls back and goes into Lebanon, but Hezbollah are pirating the pipeline and taking money to arm themselves, so the line is a target. If you look at the oil pipeline link I put further up, it would suit Saudi interests (pro-Israeli) and Israel (commercial fees) to get rid of that Z-bend in the "Trans-Arabian Oil Pipeline" pipe, make it shorter and cut out Iran-supporting Lebanon by pushing the "Trans-Arabian Oil Pipeline" in a shorter straight line through West Bank and out to sea. But it would be currently too risky for Israel and Saudi to build it, with Hamas and Israel-hating Palestinians in there. "Clear them out and build it" is what I think they are up to. The Ben Gurion canal may come later, but I think the Saudi pipeline is the real driver here.

    In summary, and I hope it answers a few questions, trying to view this through partisan lines will see the average reader making error after error in forecasts. Unfortunately, the Middle East is a chessboard for big player chess strategy, and oil, trade and maritime logistics driving key decisions and wars. What matters to local people there is a side hobby to the US and West, China, Russia, Israel and Iran. Everyone else in the region is being played by these big players - yes in the name of greed and profit, but also securing and growing their own military and trade empires.

    Nothing changes. This no different to Russia-Turkey war over the Bosphorus shipping lanes, Russia-Japan war over sea access, Spanish and Portuguese invasions of Latin American for gold and silver, British invasion of India for silk, cotton precious metals and staging posts for Asian conquest, Second World War German occupation of Greece for maritime naval access, Austro-Hungarian pre-World War One attack on Serbia over the Sanjak railway route, or Russian invasion of Afghanistan (to get near the Pakistan sea access). History is repeating itself. Trade, security of logistical routes, naval / military routes, money, empire. Old ruses, new excuses. Only the players and details change.

  2. #27

    Re: Iran in direct attack on Israel

    I think we all know that Israel's response to Oct 7th has been brutal on the people of Gaza. I guess they would argue that is Hamas' fault, both for their strike on Israel and then for hiding in amongst the population and making fleeing more difficult etc. I don't doubt there is a lot of truth in that, but if innocent people are dying, frankly who cares who is doing it? Israel without question lost some moral authority in its response.

    That said, my initial thought this morning was one of sympathy. It's the only real democracy in the region. It's surrounded by extremist, undemocratic, violent, mysoginistic, borderline racist states, several of which want it to cease to exist and don't teach their own populations about the reasons why it was created after the war.

    I know it is far, far from innocent, but none the less, It annoys me to see it have to take that from such an ideologically repugnant state as Iran

  3. #28

    Re: Iran in direct attack on Israel

    By looking at the map you an also understand Turkey more. Turkey is caught between the interest of itself, Europe, Russia and the Middle East.

    1. What does Turkey want? To be part of the EU and to not take a flood of muslims from Middle East. Turkey wants the financial benefits of being in the EU and and the security it brings. European people don't want Turkey in the EU because of it huge muslim population.

    2. What does Russia want? It wants its military ships to be able to get out of South West Russia or Crimea, and out through the Bosphorous, to able to give it leverage to threaten oil and shipping lanes of US and European interests. The US and Europe do not want Russia's ships coming through, so currently they don't. In return the EU will not allow Turkey into the EU but it allows it to forward on Syrians and the rest of them from Middle East, and into Europe. So that was Europe's deal to keep Turkey from allowing Russian naval ships through.

    3. What does Ukraine want? Money from oil pipelines coming around the Caucuses. Does Turkey help US and Europe with Ukraine? No. Why would they? Currently they want to earn the pipeline fees by expanding the "Ceyhan-Kırıkkale Oil Pipeline" into Bulgaria and be the go-between for Middle East and European oil. Russia does not want this as they prefer to pipe oil and gas into Europe and lock the distribution revenues themselves, so Russia and Turkey have natural baked in there.

    Turn your eyes to Morocco soon. Morocco have big gas finds. The UK and Europe now want to create direct pipelines for this into Spain, to reduce gas dependency on Russia and Middle East. Morocco will be a friend of Europe soon that's for sure. Best keep them onside

  4. #29

    Re: Iran in direct attack on Israel

    There are heavier sources to read, but a basic one here on Wiki, which explains the division between Sunni and Shia muslims:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shia_c...%20in%20Turkey.

    You can follow the primary sources and speeches referenced here. But basically, Shias MUST have strict Islamic fundamentalists religious leaders as head of state, and the Koran defines the laws (Iran, Taliban in Afghanistan etc. ) This is why in these countries women get raped, stoned, prevented from working etc. Because it doesn't follow the Koran and it breaks the law. And because of that, these countries wage holy war on Christians, Jews and want to convert or oppress Sunnis. It is not as simple as saying "If you are from Country X you are this type". Because reality is that most Arab countries have mixed tribes. What matters is who are the elite and power brokers in that country - that defines their behaviour.

    Sunni muslims can have a royal family or elected government (Saudi, Bahrain, Turkey, Morocco, Egypt usually). Islam and aspects of the Koran feature in life but do not define all the rules and values. You don't see people justifying rape or stoning of women, or preventing women working with this sect.) These are often friendlier countries to The West as they are generally more relaxed.

  5. #30

    Re: Iran in direct attack on Israel

    Quote Originally Posted by Keyser Soze View Post
    By looking at the map you an also understand Turkey more. Turkey is caught between the interest of itself, Europe, Russia and the Middle East.

    1. What does Turkey want? To be part of the EU and to not take a flood of muslims from Middle East. Turkey wants the financial benefits of being in the EU and and the security it brings. European people don't want Turkey in the EU because of it huge muslim population.

    2. What does Russia want? It wants its military ships to be able to get out of South West Russia or Crimea, and out through the Bosphorous, to able to give it leverage to threaten oil and shipping lanes of US and European interests. The US and Europe do not want Russia's ships coming through, so currently they don't. In return the EU will not allow Turkey into the EU but it allows it to forward on Syrians and the rest of them from Middle East, and into Europe. So that was Europe's deal to keep Turkey from allowing Russian naval ships through.

    3. What does Ukraine want? Money from oil pipelines coming around the Caucuses. Does Turkey help US and Europe with Ukraine? No. Why would they? Currently they want to earn the pipeline fees by expanding the "Ceyhan-Kırıkkale Oil Pipeline" into Bulgaria and be the go-between for Middle East and European oil. Russia does not want this as they prefer to pipe oil and gas into Europe and lock the distribution revenues themselves, so Russia and Turkey have natural baked in there.

    Turn your eyes to Morocco soon. Morocco have big gas finds. The UK and Europe now want to create direct pipelines for this into Spain, to reduce gas dependency on Russia and Middle East. Morocco will be a friend of Europe soon that's for sure. Best keep them onside
    Sounds like a strong argument to get Turkey into the EU asap.

  6. #31

    Re: Iran in direct attack on Israel

    Quote Originally Posted by Keyser Soze View Post
    Yes, but I also highlighted in my comments, energy policy and global trade, shipping routes (for navy access & trade), as well as religion (dominant muslim factions such as Shia v Sunni, let alone Arab v Jew) and local tribalism add to it. Hugely complex and hugely unstable by the fact that all these factors are changing month to month, let alone year to year. Anyone who is looking for a Northern Ireland type settlement and think we will "solve" this is either an extreme optimist, an idiot or a liar. In my view, this will always be with us in our lifetime and beyond. The average Joe probably considers the events through what the BBC & Sky News tell them, what their political allegiances tell them to side with, how their friends think, how they feel about religion, or how they feel about humanity. But humanity or "their people" isn't what the people behind this war are thinking, and that is the saddest part.

    The first time I realised it wasn't what the news was telling me, or what was right or wrong, was a book on oil trade and energy market conflict. Like many of us, I suspected that greed was at play, but did not know the how's and why's. The Blair invasion of Iraq around 2003 got my goat, and I started asking questions about it. When a relative of mine who worked at the high end in oil (and was engaged to an American oil 'diplomat') tipped me off I read the book he recommended by an oil-insider and oil analyst. After I read it I was on holiday with him in the Caribbean and he asked what I thought. I said "Sick. Pretty ruthless too.". He said "Yeah, I work in that industry and I keep hearing stories all the time, but my other half's job confirms it. This game is ugly. I will do a few more years, take the money and get out of it and retire." He did.

    When I read that book I was blown away and chased the primary sources, of which one was a gas & oil map of pipelines, as I was learning about doing oil trading back around 2004-2006. As always some pipelines are being built, others in construction, and others in consideration. These days there are several Oil & gas maps online, but you should look at them alongside a normal map and see why some countries will be fought over, and others not. So by looking at the map below you can see how important being friendly to certain countries is, in order to maintain trade and energy stability. Consider the routes to pipe oil and gas from source to European and Asian markets. Consider how military can move their navies. Consider where your goods come from and where they go to be sold. If you have an IQ over 60, you can begin to see where the real motivations are, and why some countries go to war a lot, or why they get special exemptions.

    https://globalenergymonitor.org/proj...r/tracker-map/

    The Suez is important to get oil exports to Europe cheaply. Shipping is always the cheapest form of logistics, over trucking or air freight. Trade also goes through Suez. The US & West need a friendly leader in charge of Egypt and Israel owning that land free of challenge. If so, the Suez should present a fairly friendly path for all global trade to reach US and Europe. Oil can be pumped from Saudi via pipelines through friendly pipelines in friendly countries, or via cargo ships out of Suez. Providing these pipelines for oil and gas are protected, or trade routes through Suez, then inflation stays stable, so should interest rates, and life is The West is easier. If these are threatened the opposite happens. Look at The Suez canal history in 1950s and Yom Kippur War of 1970s, and see the effects on inflation, historic interest rates and our economy if these are not secure. In addition, if Israel lose their territory to Iran, then being next to Egypt, Egypt may also be the next target to fall under Iranian influence, and Shia militias or Muslim Brotherhood people re-emerging inside Egypt, and further trouble for global trade and energy market stability.

    If you want to throw in some leftfield ideas, google the Ben Gurion canal. The Ben Gurion canal was a project in the 1960s where the Israelis wanted to help the West by competing with Suez by having a separate canal. This would make shipping prices more competitive, but also make money for Israel through shipping fees. Some speculate that Israel's recent moves to clear out Gaza Strip is connected to eliminating threats to a renewed Ben Gurion canal project, now that Israel is far richer.

    https://www.newarab.com/news/what-is...y-gaza-matters

    I also speculate (and see it more likely) that Israel sees an opportunity to straighten the Saudi pipeline right through West Bank and out to the sea via Israeli ports. Israel has already made some big gas finds offshore so the port of Haifa and maybe another one will boom in trade soon as refineries refine the stuff nearby. At the moment, it pulls back and goes into Lebanon, but Hezbollah are pirating the pipeline and taking money to arm themselves, so the line is a target. If you look at the oil pipeline link I put further up, it would suit Saudi interests (pro-Israeli) and Israel (commercial fees) to get rid of that Z-bend in the "Trans-Arabian Oil Pipeline" pipe, make it shorter and cut out Iran-supporting Lebanon by pushing the "Trans-Arabian Oil Pipeline" in a shorter straight line through West Bank and out to sea. But it would be currently too risky for Israel and Saudi to build it, with Hamas and Israel-hating Palestinians in there. "Clear them out and build it" is what I think they are up to. The Ben Gurion canal may come later, but I think the Saudi pipeline is the real driver here.

    In summary, and I hope it answers a few questions, trying to view this through partisan lines will see the average reader making error after error in forecasts. Unfortunately, the Middle East is a chessboard for big player chess strategy, and oil, trade and maritime logistics driving key decisions and wars. What matters to local people there is a side hobby to the US and West, China, Russia, Israel and Iran. Everyone else in the region is being played by these big players - yes in the name of greed and profit, but also securing and growing their own military and trade empires.

    Nothing changes. This no different to Russia-Turkey war over the Bosphorus shipping lanes, Russia-Japan war over sea access, Spanish and Portuguese invasions of Latin American for gold and silver, British invasion of India for silk, cotton precious metals and staging posts for Asian conquest, Second World War German occupation of Greece for maritime naval access, Austro-Hungarian pre-World War One attack on Serbia over the Sanjak railway route, or Russian invasion of Afghanistan (to get near the Pakistan sea access). History is repeating itself. Trade, security of logistical routes, naval / military routes, money, empire. Old ruses, new excuses. Only the players and details change.
    From what I understand, Britain's decision to enter the conflict in 1914 was swayed by the fact that Germany was close to completing the railway all the way to the Iraq [Mesoptamia] oilfields.

  7. #32

    Re: Iran in direct attack on Israel

    Quote Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish View Post
    From what I understand, Britain's decision to enter the conflict in 1914 was swayed by the fact that Germany was close to completing the railway all the way to the Iraq [Mesoptamia] oilfields.
    An entire research paperon it is here, written by an unfortunately named Mr Wank

    https://www.jstor.org/stable/4205566

    The murder of the heir to the throne was a flashpoint trigger but not the main reason. Competition for those logistical routes were key for planned expansion for Germany and Austro-Hungarian empire. You’re not wrong in saying what you say. England was friends with Germany, but couldn’t let Germany/Austro-Hungarian get stronger. Access to those fields would give the Ottomans, Germans and Austro-Hungarians unlimited fuel supplies to their military. The Sanjak railway was the first warning signal of Austro-Hungarian desires for expansion.

    I didn’t know that until about ten years ago. I read a book called The Raven of Zurich by Felix Somary. Nowadays you would pay a few grand for that book but a trader friend scanned it all for me for free, as he had readit three times ans is a hell of a financial trader.

    Felix Somary was a Swiss Banker who moved money for the rich and governments. He finaced major constructions projecfs but also advised the US, UK and European governments. He was a cross betwern The Rothchilds and Henry Kissinger I suppose. Whenever bankers, central bankers, politicians or major programmes had issues he would be called and paid fees.

    But he was also a trader and speculator. He had inside info and profited from it. If you want to connect dots between politics, trading, currencies, gold etc it is the book to read. Incredible. He wrote in that book that hs knew the furore over the Sankaj railway was a signal for him to leave Switzerland for the US, buy gold and Norwegian currency, and knew war was coming. He also saw the Russo-Turkish war, Russo-Japan wars and second world war, and predicted them all.

  8. #33

    Re: Iran in direct attack on Israel

    Quote Originally Posted by Keyser Soze View Post
    An entire research paperon it is here, written by an unfortunately named Mr Wank

    https://www.jstor.org/stable/4205566

    The murder of the heir to the throne was a flashpoint trigger but not the main reason. Competition for those logistical routes were key for planned expansion for Germany and Austro-Hungarian empire. You’re not wrong in saying what you say. England was friends with Germany, but couldn’t let Germany/Austro-Hungarian get stronger. Access to those fields would give the Ottomans, Germans and Austro-Hungarians unlimited fuel supplies to their military. The Sanjak railway was the first warning signal of Austro-Hungarian desires for expansion.

    I didn’t know that until about ten years ago. I read a book called The Raven of Zurich by Felix Somary. Nowadays you would pay a few grand for that book but a trader friend scanned it all for me for free, as he had readit three times ans is a hell of a financial trader.

    Felix Somary was a Swiss Banker who moved money for the rich and governments. He finaced major constructions projecfs but also advised the US, UK and European governments. He was a cross betwern The Rothchilds and Henry Kissinger I suppose. Whenever bankers, central bankers, politicians or major programmes had issues he would be called and paid fees.

    But he was also a trader and speculator. He had inside info and profited from it. If you want to connect dots between politics, trading, currencies, gold etc it is the book to read. Incredible. He wrote in that book that hs knew the furore over the Sankaj railway was a signal for him to leave Switzerland for the US, buy gold and Norwegian currency, and knew war was coming. He also saw the Russo-Turkish war, Russo-Japan wars and second world war, and predicted them all.
    That's fascinating. Re.Raven of Zurich, unavailable as you say, but have just been able to download it.

  9. #34

    Re: Iran in direct attack on Israel

    Quote Originally Posted by stevo View Post
    Sounds like a strong argument to get Turkey into the EU asap.
    Picture1.jpg

    Being in both Asia & Europe and it's critical control of Black Sea shipping towards the Med, Turkey is certainly a key country and always will be. It has been thought (long term) that Russia would covet the warm water port to the Med that Israel would provide, but this week with Israel suddenly becoming an unwanted drain on the Iran/ Russia weapons love-in, then Russia has a more pressing interest in what happens next between ancient Persia & Israel.

  10. #35
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    Re: Iran in direct attack on Israel

    Iran fights proxy wars ,
    Everyone in that area hates the jews.
    Poorest strip the land can afford and army plus weapons, construction tunnels .
    Who funds Hezbollah , Hamas and Houthis ??
    If surrounded by hate ,not chance on peace , what woudl you do to protect your people.
    Russia annex Crimea in 2014 and then invades Belarus and Ukraine fifteen thousand deaths , not so much marching and shouting about that ..


    The persecution of Jews has been a major event in Jewish history, prompting shifting waves of refugees and the formation of diaspora communities. As early as 605 BCE, Jews who lived in the Neo-Babylonian Empire were persecuted and deported. Antisemitism was also practiced by the governments of many different empires (Roman empire) and the adherents of many different religions (Christianity), and it was also widespread in many different regions of the world (Middle East and Islamic).



    Hamas slaughtered 1,260 innocent peace loving festivals goes, including rape , mutilation of women and the death of babies , bear in mind now these are no radical Jews ..

    Gaza innocent are dying not becasue of Israel its because of Hamas a terrorist organization hidden cowardly under schools , hospitals under the ground of innocent people some probably protect them .

    Gazza folk starve , Hamas leaders are very rich and well fed and funded its a disgrace s,very sad for innconcets only a rout will clear them out like the Nazis in the WW2 .. AWFUL .

    Hamas kill as many Palestinians as the Israelites do , instead of arming , feed you people or is it easier to lean on the WORLDS HATRED OF THE JEWISH STATE AND PEOPLE


    From Wiki : Jews were commonly used as scapegoats for tragedies and disasters such as in the Black Death Persecutions, the 1066 Granada Massacre, the Massacre of 1391 in Spain, the many Pogroms in the Russian Empire, and the tenets of Nazism prior to and during World War II, which led to The Holocaust and the murder of six million Jews. ..

    From the river to the sea is about annihilation of a people and state just pick up the philosophy and statements of the likes of Syria , Ira, Hamas etc etc ...

    Like or or not it seems the persecution of the Jews is sort of waved away in many quarters compared to islamophobia , Black peoples racism , homophobia hatred .. they are pretty far down the league in my humble view

  11. #36

    Re: Iran in direct attack on Israel

    Quote Originally Posted by life on mars View Post

    Gaza innocent are dying not becasue of Israel its because of Hamas a terrorist organization hidden cowardly under schools , hospitals under the ground of innocent people some probably protect them .

    Gazza folk starve , Hamas leaders are very rich and well fed and funded its a disgrace s,very sad for innconcets only a rout will clear them out like the Nazis in the WW2 .. AWFUL .

    Hamas kill as many Palestinians as the Israelites do , instead of arming , feed you people or is it easier to lean on the WORLDS HATRED OF THE JEWISH STATE AND PEOPLE
    This is the biggest load of tosh I have ever read on this forum.

  12. #37

    Re: Iran in direct attack on Israel

    Quote Originally Posted by stevo View Post
    This is the biggest load of tosh I have ever read on this forum.
    Strange how you and others automatically believe everything said by sworn terrorists and assume they are honourable individuals who have had no hand in the needless death of thousands of their citizens, yet you trash anything stated by anyone connected to Israel?

  13. #38
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    Re: Iran in direct attack on Israel

    Wow!

    Quote Originally Posted by life on mars View Post
    Hamas slaughtered 1,260 innocent peace loving festivals goes, including rape , mutilation of women and the death of babies , bear in mind now these are no radical Jews ..

    Almost totally wrong. 364 festival goers were killed on 7 October, along with over 340 IDF soldiers and others, mainly Israeli citizens in border kibbutzim. IDF soldiers in border posts have been shooting dead hundreds of unarmed Palestinian protestors for years without any diplomatic or judicial penalty. A large minority of those killed were victims of indiscriminate Israeli shell and helicopter fire - as has since come to light through the Israeli print media and television. 37 of the dead were aged under 19 (6 were aged 5 or younger).

    Hamas was guilty of atrocities on 7 October - probably including rape and certainly civilian deaths and kidnapping. But the weeks after 7 October were full of Israeli 'atrocity porn' propaganda that cited 40 butchered babies, dismemberment of pregnant women and many other horrors. The US and other states parroted these claims for a while - then distanced themselves from the lies. Hamas's (and the others who followed them through the fence) real actions included war crimes. As did Israel's on the day and in the 7 months since.


    Gaza innocent are dying not becasue of Israel its because of Hamas a terrorist organization hidden cowardly under schools , hospitals under the ground of innocent people some probably protect them .

    Gaza's people are dying because the Israeli state is killing them. It is very simple and clear. The death toll (including those under the rubble) is near 45,000 with almost 100,000 injured (some seriously disabled). 70% are women and children - alongside medics, nurses, journalists, aid workers, police trying to distribute food and thousands of other non-combatants. Disease and starvation (Israeli government policy) may well kill the same number again.

    Hamas are a guerrilla resistance movement totally outnumbered (20 to 1) and outgunned. Of course they are acting like all guerrilla armies in history. A third of their fighters are dead in the face of overwhelming odds. You are looking in the wrong direction for cowards in this conflict.


    Gazza folk starve , Hamas leaders are very rich and well fed and funded its a disgrace s,very sad for innconcets only a rout will clear them out like the Nazis in the WW2 .. AWFUL .

    The senior political leadership of Hamas lives in exile - often in comfort and security. Their members do not. They get funding from Qatar and Iran - but were also funded and promoted by Israel (especially Netanyahu and Likud) in their early days to undermine the secular Fatah/PLO (and also promoted to maintain a split between Palestinian parties and territories after 2007)

    Hamas kill as many Palestinians as the Israelites do , instead of arming , feed you people or is it easier to lean on the WORLDS HATRED OF THE JEWISH STATE AND PEOPLE

    More incontinent nonsense. Whether Hamas hold arms or build tunnels it has been the Israelis (with some help from Egypt) who have decided what food, water, power, medicines, jobs.... etc are available for the people of Gaza, not Hamas (who distribute resources and maintain the civil infrastructure as far as possible). Israel has conducted a seige of Gaza since 2005-7. Nothing much gets in or out (bar smuggled items) without their say so.

    From the river to the sea is about annihilation of a people and state just pick up the philosophy and statements of the likes of Syria , Ira, Hamas etc etc ...

    'From The River To The Sea' has been used as a slogan for almost 50 years. When Palestine protestors around the world chant 'From The River To The Sea Palestine Will Be Free' they are chanting for peace and justice in the land between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea. Many of those chanting in London, New York, Paris and dozens of other places are Jews themselves. When Hamas and other Islamist actors have used the phrase in the past they have usually done it to call for the end of the Jewish Supremacist state (and replacement with an Islamic state). There has been an overtone of threat to Jewish citizens of Israel - but that is usually 'read in' to the slogan. Since 2017 Hamas have (albeit with contradictions between different spokespeople) accepted the principle of a two state solution with a Jewish Israeli state (including second class Arab citizens) alongside a Palestinian state based on the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza. When Netanyahu and Likud (and others to their political right) use the phrase -never with western censure - they mean a single Jewish Supremacist state with Palestinians ethnically cleansed or reduced to a small 'guest worker' population.

    Like or or not it seems the persecution of the Jews is sort of waved away in many quarters compared to islamophobia , Black peoples racism , homophobia hatred .. they are pretty far down the league in my humble view

    In my experience you have described the exact opposite of reality!

  14. #39
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    Re: Iran in direct attack on Israel

    Quote Originally Posted by truthpaste View Post
    Strange how you and others automatically believe everything said by sworn terrorists and assume they are honourable individuals who have had no hand in the needless death of thousands of their citizens, yet you trash anything stated by anyone connected to Israel?
    Maybe that is the biggest load of tosh ever on this forum?

    Maybe not - the competition is strong!

    I won't speak for others but I certainly do not 'automatically believe everything....' said by Hamas. I believe their Gaza casualty figures (mostly corroborated anyway by aid agencies, the UN and other states) but not many of their other claims. I also believe a few things that come out of the Israeli government and IDF - but not much of it. That is based on decades of reading and listening to their lies and deflections. It is second nature. They are very good at it (better than their regional enemies). They see information/propaganda as a continuation of war by other means. Churchill said: "In wartime, truth is so precious that she should always be attended by a bodyguard of lies." Israel considers itself to be in a Forever War and the bodyguard of lies is always there!

  15. #40

    Re: Iran in direct attack on Israel

    Quote Originally Posted by truthpaste View Post
    Strange how you and others automatically believe everything said by sworn terrorists and assume they are honourable individuals who have had no hand in the needless death of thousands of their citizens, yet you trash anything stated by anyone connected to Israel?
    This is the second biggest load of tosh I’ve ever read on this forum.

  16. #41
    International jon1959's Avatar
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    Re: Iran in direct attack on Israel

    Interesting opinion piece from within Israel:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...el-forever-war

  17. #42

    Re: Iran in direct attack on Israel

    Quote Originally Posted by Keyser Soze View Post
    An entire research paperon it is here, written by an unfortunately named Mr Wank

    https://www.jstor.org/stable/4205566

    The murder of the heir to the throne was a flashpoint trigger but not the main reason. Competition for those logistical routes were key for planned expansion for Germany and Austro-Hungarian empire. You’re not wrong in saying what you say. England was friends with Germany, but couldn’t let Germany/Austro-Hungarian get stronger. Access to those fields would give the Ottomans, Germans and Austro-Hungarians unlimited fuel supplies to their military. The Sanjak railway was the first warning signal of Austro-Hungarian desires for expansion.

    I didn’t know that until about ten years ago. I read a book called The Raven of Zurich by Felix Somary. Nowadays you would pay a few grand for that book but a trader friend scanned it all for me for free, as he had readit three times ans is a hell of a financial trader.

    Felix Somary was a Swiss Banker who moved money for the rich and governments. He finaced major constructions projecfs but also advised the US, UK and European governments. He was a cross betwern The Rothchilds and Henry Kissinger I suppose. Whenever bankers, central bankers, politicians or major programmes had issues he would be called and paid fees.

    But he was also a trader and speculator. He had inside info and profited from it. If you want to connect dots between politics, trading, currencies, gold etc it is the book to read. Incredible. He wrote in that book that hs knew the furore over the Sankaj railway was a signal for him to leave Switzerland for the US, buy gold and Norwegian currency, and knew war was coming. He also saw the Russo-Turkish war, Russo-Japan wars and second world war, and predicted them all.
    Sounds like a fascinating guy.
    Why would his book not be available?
    It’s got some great reviews on Goodreads.

  18. #43

    Re: Iran in direct attack on Israel

    Quote Originally Posted by stevo View Post
    This is the biggest load of tosh I have ever read on this forum.
    Surely you must have encountered his incoherent rants before Stevo? They're all tosh and this is just more of it.

  19. #44

    Re: Iran in direct attack on Israel

    Quote Originally Posted by stevo View Post
    This is the second biggest load of tosh I’ve ever read on this forum.
    How devastating!
    I never expect to be in anything but a minority which is perfectly fine, the years I spent running with the crowd were mainly tedious.
    People who declare a view to be rubbish but can't explain why are simply wasting everyone's time, but I suppose they somehow feel included in the conversation even though they have no hope of engaging it.
    My observation (above) stands and people continue to verify it post on post.

    In the context of this subject, it's far more important what happens next and how this plays out.

  20. #45

    Re: Iran in direct attack on Israel

    I’ll respond in full when I’m next at a keyboard.

  21. #46

    Re: Iran in direct attack on Israel

    Newswires not giving any detail yet other than that the War Cabinet in Israel is preparing a response, but I’ll make a call early.

    Out of the four scenarios I put forward, I said unless we have a ceasefire then Scenario 1 or 3 are the highest probability.

    I now see enough signals here to see that we will move one to scenario 1: Neither Israel nor Iran back down and they will duke it out, with proxy backing.

    On details it seems to be that Israel will now launch a big air attack against Iran. It will either be directly on Iranian territory, or they will attack Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRG) in Iraqi territory, or a combination of both.

    Iraq is interesting. Because if you look at the map the attack against IRG in Iraq makes sense because it cuts off military supply lines between Iran, through Iraq, into areas such as Lebanon for Hezbollah, running through thr Shia-muslim “crescent”. The second reason is that Iraqi leaders have been speaking to the G7 in recent days. The only reason you would do this is to seek permission to fly into their airspace, or permission to land troops unopposed. This would annoy China, because China has been cutting out the US on oil deals and securing long term oil deals with Iraq, whilst supporting Tehran in influencing Iraw to allow IRG to operate in Iraq. So if Iraq grant Israel / US / G7 to land troops and / or use its airspace it is effectively selling Iran / China and siding with US / G7 / Israel - a double crossing! Either way I think a big air attack is coming, supported by missiles, on Iran or Iraq, or a combo.

    Here is another reason why. Look at airlines decisions since Sunday / Monday. They have been briefed bt air traffic control for sure!!!

    Germany’s Lufthansa has suspended its regular flights to and from Tel Aviv, Erbil, and Amman, up to and including Monday. Flights to Beirut and Tehran will remain suspended until at least Thursday.

    KLM cancelled all flights to and from Tel Aviv until Tuesday, a spokesperson for the Dutch arm of Air France says.

    Britain’s easyJet on Sunday paused operations to and from Tel Aviv. The carrier said in an emailed statement to Reuters that it will temporarily pause operations to and from Tel Aviv until April 21.

    Wizz Air says it had cancelled most of its flights to and from Tel Aviv, Saturday through Monday.

    Finnair has suspended operations in Iranian airspace until further notice, which may cause longer flight times on flights from Doha. A spokesperson said the Finnish carrier will reroute over Egypt, resulting in delays of a “few minutes.”


    Eyes down. Tin hats on. Let’s see what tomorrow’s news brings.

  22. #47

    Re: Iran in direct attack on Israel

    Now that Iran is starting to be recognised as a bit of a pariah state by other neighouring Arab states, could a people's revolution from within be on the cards?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68823348

  23. #48

    Re: Iran in direct attack on Israel

    Quote Originally Posted by Gofer Blue View Post
    Now that Iran is starting to be recognised as a bit of a pariah state by other neighouring Arab states, could a people's revolution from within be on the cards?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68823348
    Thanks for this update. It's not a million miles away from other rabid anti-Israeli groups in Gaza and Lebanon, leaders using their position to acheive their evil agenda despite the wishes of their citizens.
    The position of Jordan during the recent overnight attack was also noteworthy.

  24. #49

    Re: Iran in direct attack on Israel

    Quote Originally Posted by truthpaste View Post
    Thanks for this update. It's not a million miles away from other rabid anti-Israeli groups in Gaza and Lebanon, leaders using their position to acheive their evil agenda despite the wishes of their citizens.
    The position of Jordan during the recent overnight attack was also noteworthy.
    Like Saudi and Egypt, Jordan is mainly Sunni muslim - they will back Israel and cannot stand the Shia fundamentalists. They hate Iran.

  25. #50

    Re: Iran in direct attack on Israel

    Quote Originally Posted by Gofer Blue View Post
    Now that Iran is starting to be recognised as a bit of a pariah state by other neighouring Arab states, could a people's revolution from within be on the cards?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68823348
    By re-installing Trump's sanctions, thereby reversing Biden's idiotic decision to allow Iran to earn billions of dollars, it may well financially cripple the regime. That would reduce financial supplies to regional proxy support terrorists such as Hamas and Hezbollah. None of these groups can be paid well without Iranian funding. Kill the funding, weaken these groups, then Iran's "Supreme" Leader comes under heat. This is the best way to pull Iran's pants down and set their people free.

    Hopefully we will then see the women and public do to the Ayatollah, the IRG and the rest of their nutters what was done to them - a damn good stoning.

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