Iran in direct attack on Israel

[the other bob wilson]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...-east-68830092

[Keyser Soze]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...-east-68830092

Yep. Seems they did what I suspected and attacked some IRG targets in Iraq also. Tense days ahead for sure. Israel could have hammered those targets but chose not.

It’s a clever cat and mouse game. They are saying “We know where you nuclear facilitiies and airbases are. We can strike if we want to. This is a warning - don’t push us”.

Up to Iran to take the message, as they could both shakes hands at 1-1. But as I keep saying, they are strategically opposed. Will Iran’s ego be able withstand it and refrain? Will the people of Iran now start making noises about their leadership?

I suspect the answer to both is No, and this will slowly escalate in a slow tit-for-tat strikes, without anything seismic. I don’t see either egos backing down soon. It may take several rounds of ratcheting up before they both smell the coffee and orchestrate a temporary ceasefire.

[JamesWales]

What are the likely scenarios do you think, if liberal Iranians rose up against the leadership? Presumably there is a geographic split in opposition to the regime and so a civil war is most likely, with groups chipping in from outside?

Hard to see it transitioning smoothly.

[Keyser Soze]

Well there are plenty of them. Only 30% are Shia muslims. The biggest minority, but the dominant block.

https://theconversation.com/irans-se...beliefs-145253

At the moment it is calm, because the reversal of Trump's sanctions by Biden allows tens of billions of oil revenues to come in. They can feed their population, provide for the military, pay their IRG well, and pay to fund Hamas, Houthis and Hezbollah, whilst showcasing their nuclear programme on television. It's a pretty good ride for many in the country when they can trade on global oil markets, so the leadership, its military and Iranian Revolutionary Guard provide well funded power for the leadership.

Hopefully, Biden will now see sense, and act on his threat to put back in place the same sanctions, or hopefully even harder. If that were to happen there will be discontent from the 70% non-Shias. Cast your mind back to just two years ago when sanctions were in place:

1. Nuclear programme in trouble
2. Hamas, Houthis and Hezbollah non-existent.
3. Collapsed economy with riots everywhere and mass starvation
4. Negligible power exercised in middle east

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-63154987

So from a Western perspective what we hope strategically, to avoid direct war, is all of that to re-occur and collapse from the inside and civil war to occur. But this time the Chinese are behind the scenes and have agreed oil deals with Iran (and same whilst influencing Iraq). So that will provide a financial buffer if US / Western sanctions kick in, even tough the Chinese will not pay anywhere near market rates for oil. Some money is better that very little, so I have a feeling that all we can hope for is reduced / slower nuclear programme, and funding of proxies to dry up (Hamas, Houthis, Hezbollah).

If forced to choose where to spend reduced oil revenues from sanctions, Iran being the cute strategic lot they are, and advised militarily by the even more strategic Chinese, they will de-prioritise military / religious expansion, spend the reduced Chinese oil revenues on a more defensive strategy of protecting their people and borders, and the IRG will retract back inside Iran to defend the leadership. This will allow them to buy time and live to fight another day, sit out US elections and see what happens. The Iranians are the wise ones in the Middle East. They know when to attack and defend that is for sure, and have been wired this way for many centuries. They will not overreach if they cannot afford it.

So it's all on the sanctions. If they are the same or harder than Trump's then Iran will quieten down and become defensive. If the sanctions are poor or not executed, expect on and off hostilities to continue.

[Keyser Soze]

..and if you want terminal destruction of Iran there is another way but it comes at a high cost.

1. Do a deal with Turkey to block Iranian oil flows on pipelines.
2. Put ships in the Straight of Hormuz and block any Iranian cargo.

See map below and guide on the area....

https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/i...e-middle-east/

Unfortunately it won't stop oil going to China, but that is what the importance of Iraq and Afghanistan was. In addition to cutting off trade with China, the combination of US troops in Iraq (to left of Iran) and in Afghanistan (to right of Iran) was a "Policy of Encirclement" to cut off allies, military supply lines and trade to the East and West, and keep Iran honest and isolated.

But you cannot sell that to the Western public and it is expensive as we saw. Necessary to contain Iran and strategically sound, but costly. We have now done the public's bidding and got out. The combination of getting out, plus Biden's sanctions reversal, is what allowed Iran to trade with China, and do damage close to Israel. Ethically sound but strategically poor and political and economically dangerous.

The map is just a chessboard. Once you see it that way, you can see what needs to be done, regardless of the ethics.

[life on mars]

Iran just went awfully quiet.

I wonder what Israeli actually damaged and took out last night..

Thats what we should do to Putin.

Call the bluff.

Show your strength.

[life on mars]

..and if you want terminal destruction of Iran there is another way but it comes at a high cost.

1. Do a deal with Turkey to block Iranian oil flows on pipelines.
2. Put ships in the Straight of Hormuz and block any Iranian cargo.

See map below and guide on the area....

https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/i...e-middle-east/

Unfortunately it won't stop oil going to China, but that is what the importance of Iraq and Afghanistan was. In addition to cutting off trade with China, the combination of US troops in Iraq (to left of Iran) and in Afghanistan (to right of Iran) was a "Policy of Encirclement" to cut off allies, military supply lines and trade to the East and West, and keep Iran honest and isolated.

But you cannot sell that to the Western public and it is expensive as we saw. Necessary to contain Iran and strategically sound, but costly. We have now done the public's bidding and got out. The combination of getting out, plus Biden's sanctions reversal, is what allowed Iran to trade with China, and do damage close to Israel. Ethically sound but strategically poor and political and economically dangerous.

The map is just a chessboard. Once you see it that way, you can see what needs to be done, regardless of the ethics.

The other important point to consider are the young people of Iran have had enough, they are rising up which makes it difficult for Israel to send the real big weapons in. Revolution from within maybe the answer, we could also see the same in Israel after this is all over .

[Keyser Soze]

Well we may soon get our confirmation. One strike by Iran, and a response by Israel could have been written off as 1-1 and left there. I noted this line from my Bloomberg news terminal feed:

Iranian Foreign Minister: If Israel wants to do another adventurism and acts against the interests of Iran, next response will be immediate and at maximum level — Reuters

But that was before last night. Israel struck a military base inside Iraq. As I said earlier in the week that will be Iran’s Iranian Revolutionary Guard bases and supply lines that I thought they might go for.

So to piece it all together, what is the situation room now? Is this a tit for tat? Regional war? Proxy war? Or the start if World War III?

US/G7/Europe’s position?
——————————-
- US and G7 are united in saying they stand by Israel
- But equally are re-applying sanctions to Iran,but are also claiming they are telling Israel to stop.
- US are striving to send another £1bn to Israel to “defend itself”

So the US and G7 have a position that is presented as “We are not involved”, or “Supporting Israel’s Defence”. But they know full well they are paying for Israel’s attacks. So they are playing Iran at their own game: pretending to be not involved, but really they are.

Israel and Iran’s war position
———————————
- Iran bombed Israel, and Israel gave a small retaliation 1-1
- Israel have conducted “round two” strikes v Iran, with the Iranian Foreign Minister making the statement further up
- If Iran responds, or Iran and Israel respond in no order, we no doubt have at least a proxy war started,m. With Hamas, Hezbollah and Hourhis already involved, you can already make the case that this has escalated to a combination of a proxy and regional war.

What is now Iraq’s position?
——————————-
- This could be the ultimate turning point. Iraq was Sunni-run, but is now Shia influenced by Iran
- Iran believes that Iraq and Iran should be unified
- Iraq is a military and oil pipeline supply line on the chessboard to Syria and Lebanon
- Iraq allows IRG into its zone
- Iraq has done a huge long term oil deal with China to give it low cost oil, with pipelines previously designated for global oil prices and the West

Iraq allowed the Israelis to fly over and strike Iran the other night. Why? Have they been cosying up to Iran and China because the US exited, and are now shafting them both now the US and Israel are involved? Or did they allow a one-off, were conned by US and Israel? Soon, Iraq will be forced to choose a side. This is pivotal.

First Iran hid and was forced to show it’s hand - China next?
———————
As China support Iran, and have been supporting Iraq in oil deals, what will China now do?

If the US and Israel continue this hitting of Iranian IRG positions, this will not only isolate Hamas and Hezbollah by cutting off military support and oil pipelines, probably force us to see who Iraq will support in an escalation, but also China if their ally (Iran) and oil supply is threatened.

Iran was forced to reveal it’s face from behind the curtains, but what do China now do? Keep funding Iran? Step in and protect their oil supplies? Or pull away, drop Iranian support, retreat to the shadows, preserve their money for a fight in Taiwan? That cheap Iraqi oil would have been quite handy in their naval power ambitions and the desire to supplying all those ships with cheap foreign oil for a probable economic blockade of Taiwan to control 85% of the world’s semi-conductors.

For the reasons above, I believe if Iraq keeps being pummelled, China controls the decision of whether or not this becomes WWW III by:

1. Intervening in Iraq to protect their oil or put military into Iran at least (to defend their regional ally), thus escalating a regional war to World War III with two economic superpowers if Us v China fighting - direct or by proxy.

This is akin to Russia and France (regional superpower) defending Serbia, and Germany (empire superpower) defending Austro-Hungarian empire (empire super power) in World War One.

2. Drop Iraq and Iran, surrendering control of direct oil supplies, and China’s pipelines going into Middle East, but also surrendering their regional influence of countries controlling commercial shipping lanes (Straights of Hormuz and Suez), and re-conceding control of this zone to Western powers

What happens in Iraq is now pivotal. I would say in the next 1-2 months we will have definitive answers if we revert to status quo, a continuation of a regional war or World War III. Because Iraq isn’t a meaningful military, we will soon find out what the big boys want from all this.

[Keyser Soze]

Curveball here. I just saw an update…

“Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan receives the head of the Hamas political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, in Istanbul.”

Hard to see what that is. Either…

1. Asking for Turkish financial or military support (probably on behalf of Iran)

2. Asking Turkey to agree to cut off Middle East energy supplies to EU (Turkey won’t do that)

3. Communicate what Iran’s intentions are and seeking their views

I didn’t expect Turkey to be talking to Hamas, so this one surprises me.

[Swiss Peter]

Well there are plenty of them. Only 30% are Shia muslims. The biggest minority, but the dominant block.

https://theconversation.com/irans-se...beliefs-145253

At the moment it is calm, because the reversal of Trump's sanctions by Biden allows tens of billions of oil revenues to come in. They can feed their population, provide for the military, pay their IRG well, and pay to fund Hamas, Houthis and Hezbollah, whilst showcasing their nuclear programme on television. It's a pretty good ride for many in the country when they can trade on global oil markets, so the leadership, its military and Iranian Revolutionary Guard provide well funded power for the leadership.

Hopefully, Biden will now see sense, and act on his threat to put back in place the same sanctions, or hopefully even harder. If that were to happen there will be discontent from the 70% non-Shias. Cast your mind back to just two years ago when sanctions were in place:

1. Nuclear programme in trouble
2. Hamas, Houthis and Hezbollah non-existent.
3. Collapsed economy with riots everywhere and mass starvation
4. Negligible power exercised in middle east

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-63154987

So from a Western perspective what we hope strategically, to avoid direct war, is all of that to re-occur and collapse from the inside and civil war to occur. But this time the Chinese are behind the scenes and have agreed oil deals with Iran (and same whilst influencing Iraq). So that will provide a financial buffer if US / Western sanctions kick in, even tough the Chinese will not pay anywhere near market rates for oil. Some money is better that very little, so I have a feeling that all we can hope for is reduced / slower nuclear programme, and funding of proxies to dry up (Hamas, Houthis, Hezbollah).

If forced to choose where to spend reduced oil revenues from sanctions, Iran being the cute strategic lot they are, and advised militarily by the even more strategic Chinese, they will de-prioritise military / religious expansion, spend the reduced Chinese oil revenues on a more defensive strategy of protecting their people and borders, and the IRG will retract back inside Iran to defend the leadership. This will allow them to buy time and live to fight another day, sit out US elections and see what happens. The Iranians are the wise ones in the Middle East. They know when to attack and defend that is for sure, and have been wired this way for many centuries. They will not overreach if they cannot afford it.

So it's all on the sanctions. If they are the same or harder than Trump's then Iran will quieten down and become defensive. If the sanctions are poor or not executed, expect on and off hostilities to continue.

Must admit that I didn't realise that such a small proportion of the Iranian population are Shia Muslims. Are you sure that is right?

[jon1959]

Must admit that I didn't realise that such a small proportion of the Iranian population are Shia Muslims. Are you sure that is right?

Looks very wrong according to this:

A 2020 survey by the World Values Survey found that 96.6% of Iranians believe in Islam. According to the CIA World Factbook, around 90–95% of Iranian Muslims associate themselves with the Shia branch of Islam, the official state religion, and about 5–10% with the Sunni and Sufi branches of Islam. According to the 2011 Iranian census, 99.98% of Iranians believe in Islam, while the rest of the population believe in other officially recognized minority religions: Christianity, Judaism and Zoroastrianism

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Iran

[jon1959]

Curveball here. I just saw an update…

“Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan receives the head of the Hamas political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, in Istanbul.”

Hard to see what that is. Either…

1. Asking for Turkish financial or military support (probably on behalf of Iran)

2. Asking Turkey to agree to cut off Middle East energy supplies to EU (Turkey won’t do that)

3. Communicate what Iran’s intentions are and seeking their views

I didn’t expect Turkey to be talking to Hamas, so this one surprises me.

Turkey have been talking to Hamas - and providing support - at least since 2006 when they were elected in Gaza.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_support_for_Hamas

[Keyser Soze]

Turkey have been talking to Hamas - and providing support - at least since 2006 when they were elected in Gaza.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_support_for_Hamas

Thanks Jon. I wasn’t watching Turkey’s activities too much 👍

[Keyser Soze]

Looks very wrong according to this:

A 2020 survey by the World Values Survey found that 96.6% of Iranians believe in Islam. According to the CIA World Factbook, around 90–95% of Iranian Muslims associate themselves with the Shia branch of Islam, the official state religion, and about 5–10% with the Sunni and Sufi branches of Islam. According to the 2011 Iranian census, 99.98% of Iranians believe in Islam, while the rest of the population believe in other officially recognized minority religions: Christianity, Judaism and Zoroastrianism

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Iran

I looked at the CIA Factbook but wondered if I could really trust it. Saw the other link I posted and wondered how there can be such a huge disparity?

[Keyser Soze]

Looks very wrong according to this:

A 2020 survey by the World Values Survey found that 96.6% of Iranians believe in Islam. According to the CIA World Factbook, around 90–95% of Iranian Muslims associate themselves with the Shia branch of Islam, the official state religion, and about 5–10% with the Sunni and Sufi branches of Islam. According to the 2011 Iranian census, 99.98% of Iranians believe in Islam, while the rest of the population believe in other officially recognized minority religions: Christianity, Judaism and Zoroastrianism

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Iran

I looked at the CIA Factbook but wondered if I could really trust it. Saw the other link I posted and wondered how there can be such a huge disparity?

My link says 20-30%. Wiki / CIA say 90% ish. A GAMAAN survey says around 50%. With an oppressive regime you can easily envision a mindset where you may openly claim to be Shia, but perhaps hold a different view due to fear.

Reality is we do not know, but there is a clear incentive and motivation for Iranian leaders, or opponents, to lie.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Iran

[truthpaste]

I looked at the CIA Factbook but wondered if I could really trust it. Saw the other link I posted and wondered how there can be such a huge disparity?

My link says 20-30%. Wiki / CIA say 90% ish. A GAMAAN survey says around 50%. With an oppressive regime you can easily envision a mindset where you may openly claim to be Shia, but perhaps hold a different view due to fear.

Reality is we do not know, but there is a clear incentive and motivation for Iranian leaders, or opponents, to lie.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Iran

In contrast with state propaganda that portrays Iran as a Shia nation, only 32% explicitly identified as such, while 5% said they were Sunni Muslim and 3% Sufi Muslim. Another 9% said they were atheists, along with 7% who prefer the label of spirituality. Among the other selected religions, 8% said they were Zoroastrians – which we interpret as a reflection of Persian nationalism and a desire for an alternative to Islam, rather than strict adherence to the Zoroastrian faith – while 1.5% said they were Christian.

Full article >> Iran’s secular shift: new survey reveals huge changes in religious beliefs

[jon1959]

In contrast with state propaganda that portrays Iran as a Shia nation, only 32% explicitly identified as such, while 5% said they were Sunni Muslim and 3% Sufi Muslim. Another 9% said they were atheists, along with 7% who prefer the label of spirituality. Among the other selected religions, 8% said they were Zoroastrians – which we interpret as a reflection of Persian nationalism and a desire for an alternative to Islam, rather than strict adherence to the Zoroastrian faith – while 1.5% said they were Christian.

Full article >> Iran’s secular shift: new survey reveals huge changes in religious beliefs

Interesting.

[truthpaste]

Some analysts say the Iranian attack was the largest combined missile and drone assault ever - bigger than anything Russia has levelled against Ukraine.

> BBC ARTICLE

"Both sides certainly will have learned military lessons. "The attack probably helped Iran identify the relative strengths and the weaknesses of the Israeli air defence system," said the Institute for the Study of War. Israel and the US will also have a greater understanding of Iran's tactical strategies"