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Off the top of my head we got 49 2 years ago and stayed up.
Birmingham went down with 50 points last season?
What's the highest and lowest?
If it's to match last season we need 18 points in last 13 games to stay up. Possible but.......
Five wins and a few draws, its possible but if you targeted the likes of Luton, Stoke Oxford etcOriginally Posted by Father Dougal
We just havent done enough against teams in and around us when weve been at home
3 wins in the last 20 matches suggests thats going to be a tall order to win 5 in the next 13
Our only hope is that Luton, Derby and Plymouth are worse than us in the remaining league games
Not wishing to tempt fate here, but I think Plymouth are done. They had a golden opportunity to earn three points yesterday but couldn't take it. They looked clueless. They've had a brief flurry of good results, but it wouldn't surprise me to see that end now. They're a really poor side.
John Eustace will need to turn Derby around rapidly if they're to survive and I don't see that happening. I think they're pretty much done too.
Luton are the most difficult side to assess. They're on a woeful run and looked truly terrible against Plymouth on Wednesday, but I can't help feeling they could run into some sort of form soon. Big game for them at Watford today.
The bookies are currently calling it as follows:
Plymouth - 1/7
Derby - 1/2
Luton - 8/15
Cardiff - 15/8
Stoke - 7/2
Oxford - 4/1
Hull - 15/2
Would you agree that if any of the current bottom 3 finish above us that means we've been relegated?
Of course hull is a big game but with the other results they are getting they are going to finish above us anyway.
Oxford are only possible ones that make me doubt it. Not impossible they could get hardly anymore points. I'd have thought they'd be good bets for relegation next season.
I would. I know there are 13 games to go, but none of the current bottom three look like they have sufficient quality to get out of trouble.
Long way to go yet, so nothing can be taken for granted, but itll be a surprise if Luton, Derby or Plymouth can escape.
Its vital we take advantage of the game in hand we have on the teams below us. Being 6 points above them should give us a psychological advantage.you would hope
I can’t see 50 points no matter which way I cut it, 48 maximum. Imperative to win the home games against Stoke, Oxford & Luton plus pick up a couple of others.
I agree. I can't see Luton, Derby and Plymouth picking up 20+ points between now and the end of the season.
City on 33 now: they win at home against Hull, Stoke, Luton, Oxford and Sheffield Wednesday= 48; Draws against WBA, Preston and QPR= 51
I hope youre right and the three sides below us stay that way
We all hope you’re right in your optimism
I'd definitely take 48. 46 I'd probably take also if we can keep a point a game up.
Since 1988/89 and the second tier was made up of 24 teams, the highest points tally a side has gone down with has been Peterborough (in 2013/14). The lowest of all the teams in 22nd position has been 37 points (Peterborough again in 2021/22), but this was affected by points deductions elsewhere.
The average number of points of a side in 22nd position since 1989/90 is 46.
To try and calculate the points needed is impossible, the best we can do is guesswork. Some weeks ago I predicted 45 points would be sufficient to keep a side in the division. I think that's still very possible.
I've calculated the points the team in 22nd position after 34 games has had and the points the team in 22nd position at the end of the season has had. On average 22nd position at the end of the season has gained 13 points over the last 12 games. Notice I refer to the actual position, not the team in that position as that sometimes changes. Take, for example, 1989/90. Plymouth were 22nd with 34 games played and had 35 points. Bournemouth finished the season in 22nd with 48 points. That season Plymouth gained 20 points from their last 12 games and finished 16th.
This season Plymouth are in 22nd position with 30 points. In 37 seasons, that's the 7th lowest points tally for a side in 22nd. Only once when the division has had a side in 22nd position on 30 points or fewer at this stage has a team gone down with more than 42 points. The situation changes somewhat when the sides in 22nd position after 34 games has had 31 points - here there have been occasions where 49 and 50 points has seen relegation.
More correlation starts to appear between points won at this stage and at the end of the season. As a general rule, the higher the points won by the team in 22nd after 34 games, the higher the points needed for survival and, often, the greater the number of points won between then and the end of the season. Conversely, when points have been low, points needed for survival have been lower and, sometimes the points won between now and the end of the season are fewer.
There have been 13 occasions where the team in 22nd after 34 games has had 31 or fewer points. Only 3 times has 45 points or more been needed for survival.
One word of warning - Gillingham in 2004/05 had 31 points after 34 games. They won an impressive 19 points and only lost 1 of their last 12 games. They were relegated with 50 points.
Blackburn got relegated on goal difference with 51 points in 2016. Nottingham Forest also finished on 51 but stayed up. Whatever happened to them.
The Hull game is huge, it is a must not lose for either side. We get a lovely 4 point cushion if we both draw. Start Salech and Robinson, and go from there!
We're going to get saved by the bottom 3 being absolutely dire. The club should have a full review of what the hell has happened in the last 18 months, and all of our transfer activity analysed. Salech looks a real player but so many aren't just bad signings, they're bad players. I'm just praying Tan wakes up and realises what's going on at some point.
I roughly calculated a couple of weeks ago 46 may ge enough, with 48 to make sure.
Basically if we can draw all our remaining games we should be OK. A draw Tuesday would not be a disaster.
I agree, as the season has progressed several teams have looked even worse than us, so fingers crossed.
It was 2012/13. Peterborough were relegated with 54 points. Wolves were also relegated that year with 51 points. Meanwhile, Vincent Tans Redbirds were winning the league with 87 points.
Now that was a crazy season. 55 points were required to stay up. Yet leicester got in the play offs with 68!
Just 14 points between promotion and relegation.
And hull got automatic promotion with 79 points. Only 25 more than peterborough!
Current gap between 2nd and relegation is 40 points and will likely be well over 50 at end of the season.
2012/13 the year we won it really was a unique season.
Yes, that was a typo. Prior to Peterborough beating us at home we were top with 44 points, while they had 13 and were bottom. We won 2 more points than they did over the last 25 games of the season.
Hull went up automatically having lost 15 games. Bristol City went down as bottom with 41 points, which has been enough for survival. Very odd season.
Yet two of the promoted teams from 12/13 stayed up pretty comfortably the foilowing season.
The gap does feel bigger now.
The 3 promoted teams last season are all coming back down without a fight.
2 of the relegated teams plus leeds are too strong for the championship.
Luton are the ones who dont fit in at all though!
What are the bookies saying now?
Think derby and Luton have both won every game since this!
According to Skybet:
Plymouth 1/10
Luton 8/13
Derby 5/4
Oxford 13/8
Cardiff 13/8
Stoke 3/1
Only QPR & Blackburn on worse form and they’re both safe.
If our form doesn’t change the bottom 3 will be
City
Oxford
Plymouth
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