
Originally Posted by
JamesWales
I think it is a bit daft to make predictions on an election four years ago at this stage. Any analysis of pretty much any election shows that polls years ahead of elections will change.
But I do think Labour have instantly lost the goodwill they had as a new government and generally been pretty poor so far. Personally I think Starmer has actually conducted himself quite well, but this isn't a presidential system and it's about what they do on the ground. The huge majority makes internal conflicts more likely too. I think that will increase, specifically on the Labour left, and why not? If they don't agree with policies, they can rebel and the party will still win parliamentary votes, so there's limited real impact.
I don't think Reform will be going away. They are a huge threat to the two main parties and are already shaping the political discourse far more than their five MPs would suggest they will.