Coronavirus update - NO MORE RESTRICTIONS

[CCFCC3PO]

Is 80% chance of success a low figure?

I was listening to a radio interview earlier today with an expert (now they are back in fashion) and she said that most attempts at a vaccine will fail - but that there are usually a range of vaccine projects going on in parallel and it is the chance of one of them working that is important.

In the past we have had a 40 year wait with no vaccine for AIDS but quite quick progress on vaccines for Ziko and Ebola (both getting to clinical trial stage within a year). Add to that the massive level of international collaboration, new technical and clinical advances, governments helping to underwrite costs (including speculative production costs before the vaccine has been proved) and it feels as if we should have some grounds for cautious optimism. Replaying the track record of vaccine searches from decades past may not be the best guide to what will happen this time.

I have no expertise at all in this and no more knowledge than the average web surfer and news watcher - but there is a mood music out there from people who will not want to be associated with failure than makes me more positive than some on here.

At least you now acknowledge that the Zika vaccine wasn't produced in 7 months.. It was a shame that your research stopped after 3 Google clicks, and in your haste to score some sort of victory, you provided false information. Currently there is no Zika vaccine, people are given advice on how to avoid mosquito bites when travelling to infected countries.

I qualify my skepticism for the production of a vaccine by September or by next April or next October by three things. The first being that the quickest vaccine produced took significantly longer than 18 months. The second by the sheer volume that needs to be produced - 6 billion, although I appreciate people will be thinking of their own country only. The third by the track record so far, "antibody tests in weeks" and the lack of tests.

I am not saying that a vaccine in record time is impossible. I just think there should be more caution because a lot of people seem to be thinking that it is set in stone. You are right in that previous vaccine production times are not, necessarily, an indicator of future success. However, it does illustrate the difficulties in producing a vaccine.

[Croesy Blue]

At least you now acknowledge that the Zika vaccine wasn't produced in 7 months.. It was a shame that your research stopped after 3 Google clicks, and in your haste to score some sort of victory, you provided false information. Currently there is no Zika vaccine, people are given advice on how to avoid mosquito bites when travelling to infected countries.

I qualify my skepticism for the production of a vaccine by September or by next April or next October by three things. The first being that the quickest vaccine produced took significantly longer than 18 months. The second by the sheer volume that needs to be produced - 6 billion, although I appreciate people will be thinking of their own country only. The third by the track record so far, "antibody tests in weeks" and the lack of tests.

I am not saying that a vaccine in record time is impossible. I just think there should be more caution because a lot of people seem to be thinking that it is set in stone. You are right in that previous vaccine production times are not, necessarily, an indicator of future success. However, it does illustrate the difficulties in producing a vaccine.

Why do you speak to people like that? Why be such an arse?

[surge]

NEW: The inside story of the Ventilator Challenge - the muddled thinking, the wasted time the political egoism. It's a mad tale. Stay with me. Me with my superb
@ft colleague @Michael_Pooler 1/Thread

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status...34219139665920

[Rjk]

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status...34219139665920

Thanks for posting that. Anyone working in the industry would have been able to point these things out weeks ago, the whole approach didn't seem to makes lot of sense to let, especially when the likes of Medtronic were making a ventilator design of theirs open source

[CCFCC3PO]

Why do you speak to people like that? Why be such an arse?

Why are you attempting to derail another thread?

[delmbox]

I was born this way

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[CCFCC3PO]

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Evidently your words, and not mine, but quite a childish way of dealing with the situation.