Originally Posted by
the other bob wilson
A big rise in the R rate in Germany in the last few days - as reported in the Guardian's rolling coverage today;-
"In Germany, “R”, the reproduction number, rose to 2.88 on Sunday, according to the daily estimate published by the country’s public health agency, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI). Its Sunday daily bulletin (English language version) is here (pdf).
On Saturday, the RKI had R at 1.79, and on Friday it was at 1.06.
According to Bloomberg, the increase has been driven by local outbreaks “including in the region of North Rhine-Westphalia, where more than 1,300 people working at a slaughterhouse”.
R is one measure of of the rate at which coronavirus is spreading. Any number above 1 means that every one person infected will pass it on to more than one other person. An R number of 2.88 implies each German case is producing another 2.88 others.
Ministers say it is essential to keep R below 1.
However, R is not the only way of measuring the seriousness of an epidemic and, if the overall incidence of infection is low, an R number above 1 is much less worrying than if the disease is much more widespread. At the end of last week, the UK government started publishing growth rate estimates for coronavirus, nationally and by region, as well as R numbers. Unlike R, the growth rate figure indicates the speed at which a virus is spreading or diminishing, not just the overall direction."
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