Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

[Eric the Half a Bee]

Why is it> The point is that many of the people who's underlying conditions made them susceptible to Covid may well have dies within 2 years anyway.

You're making a huge, totally unqualified assumption here.

[xsnaggle]

You're making a huge, totally unqualified assumption here.

I'm not making any assumptions I said 'May have'. The point is only time will tell us, if the death rate does not fall below average then there might be an assumption that they would not have, and a lower than average death rate an indication that they might well have.
the point is that cannot be known until we see the numbers to balance against the last 20 odd months.
Its just about the numbers, nothing else about it can possibly be good.

[Eric the Half a Bee]

I'm not making any assumptions I said 'May have'. The point is only time will tell us, if the death rate does not fall below average then there might be an assumption that they would not have, and a lower than average death rate an indication that they might well have.
the point is that cannot be known until we see the numbers to balance against the last 20 odd months.
Its just about the numbers, nothing else about it can possibly be good.

But deaths are well above average.

[xsnaggle]

But deaths are well above average.

Jesus christ how many times do I have to say this.
Deaths are above average now but you need to give time to see if the numbers in the same period going forward are down by the same amount. Only then will you know the real affect of the virus over and above the average.
It's like giving the result of a football match at half time!!
It's not about anything but simple mathematics.

[cyril evans awaydays]

Jesus christ how many times do I have to say this.
Deaths are above average now but you need to give time to see if the numbers in the same period going forward are down by the same amount. Only then will you know the real affect of the virus over and above the average.
It's like giving the result of a football match at half time!!
It's not about anything but simple mathematics.

Elsewhere people like TWGL1 are arguing that the impact of the lockdown could cause nearly 200k premature deaths over the medium to long term. Bit distortive for your simple mathematics if this comes to pass. All we may be left with is the Office of National Statistics calculating 150k excess deaths in the UK from April 2020 and a remarkable coincidence of 175k deaths of people with covid during the same period.

[xsnaggle]

Elsewhere people like TWGL1 are arguing that the impact of the lockdown could cause nearly 200k premature deaths over the medium to long term. Bit distortive for your simple mathematics if this comes to pass. All we may be left with is the Office of National Statistics calculating 150k excess deaths in the UK from April 2020 and a remarkable coincidence of 175k deaths of people with covid during the same period.

I'm not arguing against any of that but until you see the balance you cannot reach an answer. It wouldn't matter if the number was 10 1,000 or 1,000,000, it would still be the same need to see both sides to make a determination.

[Rjk]

I'm not arguing against any of that but until you see the balance you cannot reach an answer. It wouldn't matter if the number was 10 1,000 or 1,000,000, it would still be the same need to see both sides to make a determination.

are you saying that it wouldn't matter if 1000000 people died if they would have died 2 years later anyway?

[The Lone Gunman]

Jesus christ how many times do I have to say this. Deaths are above average now but you need to give time to see if the numbers in the same period going forward are down by the same amount. Only then will you know the real affect of the virus over and above the average.

Do you think there's a possibility, just a chance, that the death figures in previous years may give us an indication of the effect of the virus?

Here are the totals for the numbers of deaths in England and Wales for 2010 to 2020 (the figure for 2021 isn't available yet):

2010 - 493,242
2011 - 484,397
2012 - 499,331
2013 - 506,790
2014 - 501,424
2015 - 529,655
2016 - 525,048
2017 - 533,253
2018 - 541,589
2019 - 530,841
2020 - 607,922

(Source: the Office of National Statistics)

Spot the odd one out.

Were you aware that the total number of deaths in England and Wales (and the whole of the UK) in 2020 was the highest for more than a century? Back in 1918, when there happened to be a global flu pandemic, the total number of deaths registered in England and Wales was 611,861. Between then and 2020, the highest figure was 591,889 in 1972.

[JamesWales]

Do you think there's a possibility, just a chance, that the death figures in previous years may give us an indication of the effect of the virus?

Here are the totals for the numbers of deaths in England and Wales for 2010 to 2020 (the figure for 2021 isn't available yet):

2010 - 493,242
2011 - 484,397
2012 - 499,331
2013 - 506,790
2014 - 501,424
2015 - 529,655
2016 - 525,048
2017 - 533,253
2018 - 541,589
2019 - 530,841
2020 - 607,922

(Source: the Office of National Statistics)

Spot the odd one out.

Were you aware that the total number of deaths in England and Wales (and the whole of the UK) in 2020 was the highest for more than a century? Back in 1918, when there happened to be a global flu pandemic, the total number of deaths registered in England and Wales was 611,861. Between then and 2020, the highest figure was 591,889 in 1972.

Out of interest, do we know when 2021 figures are out? Presumably, despite the important nature of the topic, it isnt actually a huge undertaking to add up death figures?

[Canton Kev]

Out of interest, do we know when 2021 figures are out? Presumably, despite the important nature of the topic, it isnt actually a huge undertaking to add up death figures?

It’s not the confirmed figure but the preliminary figures for 2021 deaths are 586,214 deaths. Compared to the 2015-2019 5 year average that’s a ~11% increase.

The data can be found here:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fp...dandwales.xlsx