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Thread: Senedd election prediction

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  1. #1

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee View Post
    That's got absolutely nothing to do with my comment.

    I'll repeat that there are Labour voters who are interested in independence. I joined the party as a member when Corbyn got elected as leader. I have since rescinded my membership as a result of the party's shift away from socialism and its increasingly pro Brexit stance.

    I know of party members and Labour supporters up here who have left to vote Plaid based solely on Plaid being more socialist than Labour, that being the biggest issue. I know of friends who have done the same thing. I know of Labour party members and voters who want independence but don't regard themselves as nationalists. I'm sure I've read about Labour MPs or AMs supporting Welsh Independence, while last year a YouGov poll suggested over half of Labour voters in the 2019 general election support independence.

    Like I said, this election isn't about independence. UKIP wanted independence from the EU but they never polled well in a general election as there were always other issues that people voted on. If you accept that UKIP's polling in elections was not representative of the UK's feelings towards Brexit, you have to acknowledge the same about Plaid's polling not being representative of Wales's feelings towards independence. Now, I'm not for a second suggesting that Wales is as interested in independence as the UK was about Brexit, I'll make that very clear. But claiming that Plaid's vote is representative of how Wales feels about independence is utter horseshit. We simply don't know the real levels of interest, other than they have grown over the last few years if opinion polls are to be believed, particularly with the under 50s.
    cobblers

  2. #2

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY View Post
    cobblers
    Are you shoe-r?

  3. #3

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    I think Plaid will finish as third biggest party but probably made mistakes in: setting a date for referendum when it currently scares a lot of people and perhaps promising to spend too aggressively in their manifesto. The transformative policies are good but think parties of the left need slightly more focus on what's most important/achievable - combining with Gwlad team might help do this.

    In addition, fear that Tories would win in big numbers and pandemic giving Labour center stage has probably lost them votes too.

    I know it's still early days, much to play for, but is anyone else looking forward to Sludge hastily updating his views on Mark Drakeford?

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