+ Visit Cardiff FC for Latest News, Transfer Gossip, Fixtures and Match Results |
Can you imagine that was the scenario presented to us back at the start of the season ?
Hull and Reading will be in the bottom half of the table when you have to beat them.
If you can’t beat them you will have the opportunity of the play offs where you will have a further 3 games to qualify for the top league.
If that is unsuccessful , you will play in the championship again , winning more games than you lose with a hopefully strengthened side.
Things aren’t all that bad really , are they ?
Over the last 20 years, 86 points wouldn't have been enough on 4 occasions to get automatic promotion. A further 4 teams had 86 points. If Fulham beat Birmingham yet are still pipped by us, that will be the highest 3rd placed points tally in the last 20 years and one of the highest of all time I suspect. 8 3rd placed teams in 20 years have had 86 points or more - 5 have won the playoffs. This doesn't include Charlton's 4th placed finish in 1998 with 88 points.
That season, Sunderland finished 3rd with 90 points in 1998. Relegated from the division that season were Man City and Stoke! Other teams in the division were Bury, Swindon, Tranmere and Stockport County. Port Vale were the top side in the Potteries.
I am very chilled about the whole thing. Most people I speak to are the same . ( That doesn’t include Mike Morris. who was very stressed when I saw him the other day ) Probably the best championship there has ever been , some of the teams are frightening on paper, the lure of the money league is enticing more investors to spend their cash in our league .And we are sitting with the potential to top them all bar one.
It's no discrace if Fulham pip us to the post, they were 12th going into the international break just before Christmas and we were 2nd (6 points clear of 3rd place). They have been on a phenomenal run and successfully hunted us down.
It's not where we may finish, it's how we've gone about it. Ripping up a winning team to force an unfit player in and changing how we played. Absolutely criminal, even if we do scrape up.
2011-12 84.75
2012-13 79.5
2013-14 90
2014-15 87.5
2015-16 88.5
2016-17 88.25
2017-18 88.5 (still games to be played)
These are the average points won by the top 4 in the Championship. 2013-14's table probably looks the closest to this season's table. That season, Birmingham stayed up on 44 points - this season, I reckon 42 points will see teams safe. The teams down the bottom have been poor, but they have thrown up the odd shock - Bolton beating Cardiff, Sunderland beating Fulham just two that spring to mind.
But, because the bottom teams have won so few points, it follows that the teams at the top are likely to win more points than usual.
In 2012-13, Cardiff were promoted with just 87 points. It's likely that the fourth placed side this season will have at least 87 points. That season Peterborough were relegated with 54 points. Many said that was a poor Championship, and Leicester finished in 6th with just 14 points more than relegated Posh.
Derby, currently 6th are 33 points ahead of relegation - which is exactly how many points separated Champions Cardiff from Peterborough in 2012-13.
It's probably the most exciting promotion race I think I've seen, but the difference between the top Championship clubs and the bottom has rarely been more pronounced. I'm not sure that makes the top teams better than, say, 2012-13. Palace finished 11th following promotion that season, Hull were 4 points clear of safety and Cardiff, well they were down by Easter.
Cardiff have also spent on this squad, despite the often repeated myth that they have been operating on a tight budget.
Morrison cost £4m, and Manga cost £5m. Tomlin was £3m and is now out on loan, Bogle cost £1m and is also on loan. Madine will cost a reported £6m. Danny Ward was £1.9m, Hardly scraped together are they?
Tomlin was 1.5 or less. Warnock says that himself in an interview. I really really doubt Morrison was more than 3. Manga 3. And I'd wager ward cost no more than 1.2 and Madine 5 with loads of add ons. The fact that Morrison and manga were bought years ago also can't be lumped in to argue the tight budget can it..Come on..
Are you saying our spends compares with Villa, Middlesbrough,Derby this season?
How much were the Sunderland,Hull Wolves,Fulham,Leeds squads to assemble?
I would bet we are bottom half of the table when it comes to spend this season.
Morrison has been with us for a few season as has Manga .
If Madine was £5M then he could go down in history alongside our legend Cornelius from what I have seen so far.
Bogle and Tomlin don’t count as we aren’t paying their wages ( I guess) I would double Tomlins wages and have him back in a second.
Point is ,Warnock has recruited well on the whole with a very limited budget in comparison to the other sides in our league.
I think we are more than capable of winning the play offs.
Our big disadvantage is we have to go all out against Reading and have no opportunity to rest unlike Mboro and probably Aston Villa.
I think we would be fired up enough to beat Derby and get through any tiredness. Time to recover for the final. If we get Villa I reckon wed turn them over. Id be more worried about Boro.
I think we will go up via the play offs.