Mike Bassett: England Prime Minister

[jon1959]

The good news keeps coming!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-him-to-resign

The headline polling figures are bad enough for Boris Johnson. Labour has a 10-point lead and the prime minister’s popularity is now at the same point as Theresa May’s at her lowest.

But digging beneath the surface, the latest Opinium poll for the Observer reveals a deeper and more serious problem: Johnson’s coalition of traditional Tories and pro-Brexit working-class voters is fracturing.

The poll shows that 46% of Leave voters who voted Conservative in 2019 believe Johnson should resign, compared with 39% who want him to stay. These people are the core of the prime minister’s base and if they desert him, he is sunk.

[A Quiet Monkfish]

The good news keeps coming!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-him-to-resign

The headline polling figures are bad enough for Boris Johnson. Labour has a 10-point lead and the prime minister’s popularity is now at the same point as Theresa May’s at her lowest.

But digging beneath the surface, the latest Opinium poll for the Observer reveals a deeper and more serious problem: Johnson’s coalition of traditional Tories and pro-Brexit working-class voters is fracturing.

The poll shows that 46% of Leave voters who voted Conservative in 2019 believe Johnson should resign, compared with 39% who want him to stay. These people are the core of the prime minister’s base and if they desert him, he is sunk.

Can we have thread about all the good things a Labour Government will bring us in 2024 ? Because I haven't seen one single comment to that effect. Forget all those loud 'shouty' words aka Hilts - what have I to look forward to - because forget the polls, Kier Starmer and Labour aren't ever going to form a Government.

[the other bob wilson]

Can we have thread about all the good things a Labour Government will bring us in 2024 ? Because I haven't seen one single comment to that effect. Forget all those loud 'shouty' words aka Hilts - what have I to look forward to - because forget the polls, Kier Starmer and Labour aren't ever going to form a Government.

Not being the Conservative party will do for me for now.

[A Quiet Monkfish]

Not being the Conservative party will do for me for now.

Exactly. It will all fade into the distance - cheese, wine, Cummings, who said what, who knew what - and folk will look at Labour in 2024 and say 'no thanks'. Assuming the Tories can deal with the economic problems ahead, of course.

[the other bob wilson]

Exactly. It will all fade into the distance - cheese, wine, Cummings, who said what, who knew what - and folk will look at Labour in 2024 and say 'no thanks'. Assuming the Tories can deal with the economic problems ahead, of course.

You really think people will be more concerned with economics than their memories of Covid in two years time? All I can say is I hope and trust you’re wrong.

[A Quiet Monkfish]

You really think people will be more concerned with economics than their memories of Covid in two years time? All I can say is I hope and trust you’re wrong.

I certainly think 'partygate' will feel insignificant in two years time. Covid, probably not but I don't think that will decide the next election.

[Rjk]

The good news keeps coming!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-him-to-resign

The headline polling figures are bad enough for Boris Johnson. Labour has a 10-point lead and the prime minister’s popularity is now at the same point as Theresa May’s at her lowest.

But digging beneath the surface, the latest Opinium poll for the Observer reveals a deeper and more serious problem: Johnson’s coalition of traditional Tories and pro-Brexit working-class voters is fracturing.

The poll shows that 46% of Leave voters who voted Conservative in 2019 believe Johnson should resign, compared with 39% who want him to stay. These people are the core of the prime minister’s base and if they desert him, he is sunk.

labour aren't picking up the deserting Tory voters though, they are going from Tory to "don't know", which suggests that many of them will return once Boris has been removed

[the other bob wilson]

labour aren't picking up the deserting Tory voters though, they are going from Tory to "don't know", which suggests that many of them will return once Boris has been removed

Labour are up to 42 per cent in the latest poll, so they’re picking up votes from somewhere.

[jon1959]

labour aren't picking up the deserting Tory voters though, they are going from Tory to "don't know", which suggests that many of them will return once Boris has been removed

That was true up until early December - when Labour were getting narrow leads in most polls. Since then the pollsters have seen clear evidence of Tory to Labour switches - both ex Red Wall voters and also some more traditional southern Tory voters (along with switches to the Lib Dems).

I'm no fan of Starmer and have parted company with the Labour Party (although it is very difficult to resign - they still record me as a member 3-4 months after I quit) but I do think a tipping point has been passed. The odds are heavily against Johnson surviving as Tory leader and Prime Minister for the rest of this year.

I can't see Labour beating the Tories given recent history, but I can see the Tories beating the Tories and Labour coming through by default.

A new Tory leader will produce a 'new manager bounce' but none of the potential candidates have the ability or experience or charisma needed, and some are totally toxic even to die hard Tory members. Johnson expelled most of the real talent over Brexit.

Mind you Starmer managed to push out a third of Labour's members in less than 2 years - including the youngest and most active ones - so some of the most effective opposition is online, in single issue campaigns and in other non-traditional places.