I'm not relying on anything.

Donald Trump may well win again in November.

However there are a clutch of polls out today (this is just one - although the most detailed) which suggest that Trump is losing significant support. The analysis gives a credible explanation for why the polls are moving the way they are - even if they guarantee nothing for November and there is a margin of error.

That seems to me to be interesting - and relevant for 'The Donald Trump thread' thread!