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It's likely to be around that this year!
As a % that kind of deficit for Wales wouldn't be unprecedented, and other countries have managed that previously and come out the other side much better.
The idea being if you have an economy run to benefit Wales then we will see increased growth, and reduce the defecit.
I knew you'd come back with that. Yes well this year is a one off, and I reckon Wales fiscal gap will be considerably more than £15bn this year, so swings and roundabouts.
with all due respect the Welsh government have baulked at the idea of investing in the M4 relief road - a road almost everyone agrees is needed.
We have a fiscal gap of £15bn, we have 1 in 4 working in the public sector, compared to the UK average of 1 in 5. Assuming 1.5m people in Wales are working, that means we have 375k jobs in the public sector when it should be around 300k.
Wales economy is currently around £60bn, of which almost half is government spend. If we are to become independent, and by that I include financial independence, we need to increase our tax receipts by 25% and also increase private sector jobs by at least 6.7%. That's before we consider our share of the national debt. That's a huge burden to place on the taxpayer.
you've argued for following Ireland, but theirs is a low tax economy, certainly apropos of corporates. How do you see Wales dealing with its fiscal shortfall, its requirement to fund public services and jobs, whilst at the same time trying to be as competitive as the Irish?
A big pinch of salt would have to be taken comparing both England and Wales finances, England obviously generates more as the population is massive but it doesn't include a lot of companies financials for Wales and Scotland directly as they report from their HQ's, which are nearly always in London. Also including that an independent Scotland and Wales would have different spending priorities than Westminster does, as smaller nations without the falsehood of being 'greater than everyone else' as Westminster always points out, expenditure such as e.g trident, HS2 and the high military costs would never be needed.
An interesting read to add to the mix.. https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.ne...pdf?1559585368
Of course he's not saying that.
We can invest in infrastructure projects that will help the economy, but HS2 doesn't benefit us at all, neither does trident.
I'd love to see a severn barrage at some point in the future.
Schemes like this
http://euanmearns.com/the-severn-barrage-revisited/
Suggest they can generate up to 10% of the UKs energy at a very cheap price in comparison with other methods.
That could be enough to provide the whole of wales with cheap energy (which will be attractive to industry) and have enough left over to sell to England.
Even better if it could also include a road bridge to Lavernock or Nash point, as that could really boost the area.
This kind of project SHOULD be easier to achieve in a union like the UK, but it is so London centric that I don't think it would ever happen.
The point is we don't pay for Trident or HS2 currently as we are net beneficiaries of grants and handouts which we're able to spend on the infrastructure projects I listed which we already have(my personal favourite being the Merthyr bypass).
If we were independent we would not have the money for a Severn barrage.